China has begun its retaliation against Washington by announcing Friday the cancelation of a series of meetings with the United States, namely the suspension of issues it was working bilaterally with the US on, including related to military dialogue, climate change and anti-drug projects. Most important among these at a moment Washington has expressed concern that "the risk of a mistake could actually lead to some sort of conflict" (in John Kirby's words Thursday) - is the cancelation of military ties.
This comes in addition to unveiling undefined sanctions against House Speaker Nancy Pelosi over the "egregious provocation" of her overnight trip to Taiwan earlier in the week, which saw China immediately respond with ongoing live fire drills which have surrounded the self-ruled island, as well as ballistic missile firings in the vicinity.
The foreign ministry said in a statement, "In disregard of China’s strong opposition and serious representations, Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi visited China’s Taiwan region," and announced the following countermeasures in response:
- Canceling China-U.S. Theater Commanders Talk.
- Canceling China-U.S. Defense Policy Coordination Talks (DPCT).
- Canceling China-U.S. Military Maritime Consultative Agreement (MMCA) meetings.
- Suspending China-U.S. cooperation on the repatriation of illegal immigrants.
- Suspending China-U.S. cooperation on legal assistance in criminal matters.
- Suspending China-U.S. cooperation against transnational crimes.
- Suspending China-U.S. counternarcotics cooperation.
- Suspending China-U.S. talks on climate change.
Among the most directly threatening actions thus far has been the PLA military firing ballistic missiles over Taiwan; however, which Taipei on Wednesday refused to confirm actually flew directly over the island, despite many international reports reporting such.
Meanwhile, on climate "dialogue"...
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Literally hundreds of Chinse military aircraft and ships have also buzzed or breach Taiwan-claimed airspace and waters at this point, as the largest drills in recent history have continued to ramp up. After Beijing declared the "median line" has practically ceased to exist, dozens of aircraft have since crossed over what conventionally demarcated territorial waters of the democratic-run island.
Taiwan said in a defense ministry statement that about 20 Chinese military aircraft briefly cross the Taiwan median line on Friday morning, according to Reuters.
Pelosi while in Japan on Friday, the last stop of her Asia tour, said "The Chinese made their strikes, probably using our visit as an excuse." She added: "They may try to keep Taiwan from visiting or participating in other places but they will not isolate Taiwan. They are not doing our traveling schedule, the Chinese government is not doing that."
She then underscored the US won't let China isolate Taiwan, stressing, "We had high-level visits, senators in the spring, the bi-partisan way, continuing visits, and we will not allow them to isolate Taiwan."
This is similar to US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby's assessment given Thursday, wherein he charged Beijing with overreacting. "We condemn these actions, which are irresponsible and at odds with our long-standing goal of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and in the region," Kirby told reporters at a White House briefing. "China has chosen to overreact and use the speaker's visit as a pretext to increase provocative military activity in and around the Taiwan Strait."
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I'm betting that she has a important constituency in her California district of Taiwanese.
As someone who has lived in Taiwan, I pray for peace and freedom for the good people of both the ROC and the PRC.
When the history of the Ukraine conflict is eventually written, history and historians will judge the United States very harshly as the real provoker of the conflict. The conflict could have been totally avoided if the United States-led NATO agreed to address Russian security concerns vis-à-vis NATO’s encroaching towards Russia’s borders in a statesman-like manner. Instead, the United States and NATO have been arming Ukraine to the teeth since 2014.
The Ukraine war is the United States’ war on Russia and by extension China. Its war aims are to weaken Russia as a credible and rising superpower under President Putin, slow down the transformation of the World Order from a unipolar system led by the US to a multipolar system and sow dissent between China and Russia in an attempt to undermine their strategic alliance.
The United States has an infamous reputation of reneging on agreements or treaties it has signed on. Former President Trump’s waking away from the Iran nuclear deal in 2016 and the Paris climate change treaty and the reneging on undertakings taken under the German Unification Treaty of not bringing NATO to the borders of Russia are but a few examples among many.
Now the United States is trying to renege on undertakings it signed for on Taiwan between the Nixon Administration during Nixon’s visit to Beijing in 1972. Nixon told Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai that the United States recognized that there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of it.
The United States claims that it stands by the agreement on the status of Taiwan but its actions contradict its official position. The visit of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s to Taiwan can only be interpreted as a deliberate provocative act aimed at starting a conflict over Taiwan with China. Furthermore, if the US acknowledges that Taiwan is an integral part of China, then why arming Taiwan thus nurturing its aspirations to become independent.
Through its history, the United States always started wars when its economy was steeply slumping or when it wanted to usurp land that doesn’t belong to it as with the Mexican-American War (1846-48) which ended with the 1848 Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo under which Mexico was forced to cede the states of California, Mexico, Nevada, Utah, most of Arizona, about half of New Mexico, about a quarter of Colorado, a small section of Wyoming and also the occupied state of Texas or when it invaded Iraq in 2003 to get its hands on its spectacular oil wealth.
Both China and Russia hold the view that Washington’s alienation from both Beijing and Moscow is reflected by the deeply rooted fear of the US losing hegemonic status as the “only indispensable superpower”. Provoking the Ukraine conflict and now the Taiwan one are but a futile attempt by the United States to slow down the ongoing transformation of the World Order from a unipolar system to a multipolar one being ushered by the strategic alliance between China and Russia.
Russia’s ultimate attainment of its strategic objectives in Ukraine and security goals vis-à-vis the United States and NATO in Europe will strengthen and enhance further the Chinese-Russian strategic alliance. China’s tacit support of Russia in Ukraine and its ability to help Russia withstand Western economic and banking sanctions against it will eventually get a quid pro quo from Russia when the time comes for China to restore Taiwan to the Mainland.
Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International Oil Economist
Global Energy Expert