Libya: Haftar Shifts Strategy from Oil ‘Protector’
Shutting off Libya’s oil was always General Khalifa Haftar’s trump card to play when the time was right. That time is now, with 800,000 bpd in exports officially off the market and the country’s entire 1.2 million bpd in production set to be shuttered in a matter of days. The Government of National Accord (GNA) will be starved to the tune of $77 million a day when that happens.
Haftar was not assured of winning a ground-based military battle against the GNA and its band of militias in Tripoli, now with Turkish troops (and Syrian mercenary) support. Haftar can cripple Tripoli with superior airpower, thanks to his external alliances, but on the ground, it would be a tough battle to gain full control of the capital - which is where all the oil revenues are.
Haftar now has EU member Greece on his side, with Athens up in arms over Turkey’s attempt to stake territorial claims on the massive natural gas deposits in the eastern Mediterranean. The Greek PM has also vowed there will be no EU deal on Libya if Turkey refuses to rip up the maritime border agreement it recently made with Libya in a less-than-subtle offshore land grab.
Thus, Turkey’s meddling in Libya is entirely about Cyprus, and nothing at all to do with Haftar or the GNA.
There was room for alignment of Turkish and Russian interests here, too, even though technically Russia (through mercenaries)…
Libya: Haftar Shifts Strategy from Oil ‘Protector’
Shutting off Libya’s oil was always General Khalifa Haftar’s trump card to play when the time was right. That time is now, with 800,000 bpd in exports officially off the market and the country’s entire 1.2 million bpd in production set to be shuttered in a matter of days. The Government of National Accord (GNA) will be starved to the tune of $77 million a day when that happens.
Haftar was not assured of winning a ground-based military battle against the GNA and its band of militias in Tripoli, now with Turkish troops (and Syrian mercenary) support. Haftar can cripple Tripoli with superior airpower, thanks to his external alliances, but on the ground, it would be a tough battle to gain full control of the capital - which is where all the oil revenues are.
Haftar now has EU member Greece on his side, with Athens up in arms over Turkey’s attempt to stake territorial claims on the massive natural gas deposits in the eastern Mediterranean. The Greek PM has also vowed there will be no EU deal on Libya if Turkey refuses to rip up the maritime border agreement it recently made with Libya in a less-than-subtle offshore land grab.
Thus, Turkey’s meddling in Libya is entirely about Cyprus, and nothing at all to do with Haftar or the GNA.
There was room for alignment of Turkish and Russian interests here, too, even though technically Russia (through mercenaries) and Turkey (supporting the GNA against Haftar) are fighting on opposite sides of this conflict. The Turkey-Libya maritime agreement was for the creation of an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), and Turkish-Russian interests could easily align over Libyan offshore oil exploration. This is also in Russia’s interest, as we have previously noted, because it would undermine the planned Israeli-Greek-Cypriot gas pipeline to Europe.
But Haftar brushed them off and is letting the UAE play the lead alliance role, through Egypt. While Egypt has no desire to become entrenched in a major Gulf conflict, the UAE is interested in countering Qatar in Libya, which has thrown its support behind the GNA and, quite possibly, behind Islamic radicals in the past.
Ahead of talks to be held in Berlin on Sunday about a ceasefire, Haftar now has quite a bit of leverage ($77-million a day worth of leverage, to be exact), and his allies are largely lined up behind him. What happens next will have significant regional implications, and it will determine whether and when Libyan oil starts flowing again. Haftar won’t turn it back on without a good deal that is likely to involve Tripoli and oil revenues.
North Sea Wind: The New Offshore Bonanza
Construction of the largest offshore wind farm the world has ever seen is now underway in coastal Ulrome, England, and when it’s finished it will be able to power some 4.5 million homes.
The project, Dogger Bank Wind Farms, will deliver a total of 3.6 GW and will provide 5% of the UK’s entire electricity demand. And it is set to be completed by 2022, with first power to come in 2023.
Dogger is a joint project between SSE Renewables and Norway’s Equinor and merges three wind farm sites in the North Sea, each generating 1.2 GW.
This is the second time in as many years that the UK has broken the record for the largest wind farm in the world. In 2018, it set another record with the Walney offshore wind farm, which had a capacity of 659 MW, with 189 turbines. Prior to that, the London Array boasted the title with 175 turbines.
By comparison, the largest wind farm in the United States (the Alta Wind Energy Center in California) produces 1,550 megawatts (about 1.5 GW).
According to a report by WindEurope, in 2018, Europe connected 409 new offshore wind turbines to the grid across 18 projects. The continent now boasts a total installed offshore wind capacity of 18,499 MW. In the first half of last year alone, Europe added 4.9 GW of new wind energy capacity.
Europe is leading the pack when it comes to wind, and the lesson for investors is probably this: The big investment in the North Sea isn’t oil anymore, it’s wind.
