Three Key Events In The Global Oil Patch

Three Events to Watch in the Global Oil Patch

First, while the markets are again overly obsessed with OPEC news (particularly in the aftermath of an oil price war), all eyes will be on OPEC production, which in April rose to 30.412 million bpd, though signs point to major cuts in May. Still, the tension between Saudi Arabia and Russia is manifesting in the public arena, with calls this week between the two indicating that while the Saudis may push for the deeper cuts to be extended through the end of the year, Russia may be leery of doing so--dragging its feet in signing up for more pain just to open the door for U.S. shale to catch enough of a breath to roar back into the market. Rumors surfaced this week that Rosneft is feeling the pain of the production cuts, and has questioned its ability to maintain contractual oil supplies as a result. But if oil inventories are indeed bloated as industries suggest, this is a hard sell to a market that has just survived negative pricing as global storage threatens to reach maximum capacity.

Second, Moscow has shown its hand in Libya. Last week we noted that General Haftar's external allies in the fight for Libya will either have to show their hand or let the Turks control this game with the GNA, while the UAE (a Haftar ally) would be happy to partition the country and have a foothold in a Haftar-run Eastern Libya. Russia has now stepped up to the plate to counter Turkey/GNA, deploying some 14 warplanes--flown by Russian pilots--into the Libyan fray, to support the LNA. Air power will take Tripoli, but it won't necessarily keep it. Prior to this, Moscow was represented only unofficially by private mercenaries. Losses from Libya's oil ports that have been closed for months now total almost $5 billion.

Third, while Suriname has skidded by without any international public scrutiny until now, big oil discoveries that are starting to look a lot like Guyana are bringing the political chaos out into the open. The country held National Assembly elections this week, and three-quarters of the way through the vote count on Thursday the counters called it temporary quits because they were tired--and because the party of the president of Suriname was losing. The National Assembly will elect a president in August, and the incumbent needs to win or he will lose immunity and serve a 20-year prison sentence for murder. Apache/Total (Block 58) are now racking up discovery wins in Suriname, and even Exxon (behind the string of discoveries across the maritime border in Guyana) is now eyeing Suriname, last week scooping up shares in Petronas' (Malaysian) Block 52. Local politics, characterized by chaos, could make deals messy after August. The president--Desi Bouterse--needs his party to have a two-thirds majority to vote him in as president for another term. He is still likely to get this in August, but international scrutiny will be a new thing for Suriname (and Bouterse) and could result in blowback for Apache/Total. If Guyana is messy, Suriname is much more so.