The 5 Oil Tankers That Could Start A War

While a cold war with China is working its way towards the inevitable, another situation is developing that could lead to physical clashes between Iran and the United States over the former's attempts to ship fuel to Venezuela amid the collapse of its refining industry. 

Millions of dollars of fuel are at stake and a geopolitical crisis for which a response against Iran is likely to be real this time around because it comes against the backdrop of global chaos, a US president in trouble ahead of November elections, and a renewed attempt to bring Maduro down. 

Five Iranian oil tankers are on approach to Venezuela as we speak. 

The situation between Venezuela and the US has intensified since an incident earlier this month when Maduro said his forces had captured 13 "terrorists" and killed 8 others in a failed incursion attempt, led by an American. Trump denied having supported any such operation to capture Maduro and put him on a plane, and a private security company run by a former Special Forces soldier ended up taking responsibility for the operation, referring to his men as "freedom fighters" acting when the government wouldn't. But their funding came from somewhere. Maduro's forces had infiltrated the group long before the operation and allowed it to proceed, then capturing and killing them in the process, and accusing opposition president Guaido of bankrolling the incursion, giving Washington any plausible deniability it needed. 

And now Iran is trying to gain an important foothold in Venezuela through fuel deals that would significantly help Maduro whose regime is hanging on by a thread due to the pandemic and the global oil crisis. Iran is hoping to test Trump's resolve yet again, having pushed him to the limits without any real response several times already--with the attack on Aramco oil facilities and on US bases in Iraq, as well as with a fair amount of grandstanding in the high seas. Some $45 million in fuel cargo is at stake here, and as soon as those tankers hit the Venezuelan EEZ, they will have an armed air and sea escort courtesy of Maduro. 

The five tankers are the Clavel, Forest, Faxon, Fortune, and Petunia. Tracking the Clavel, it is set to arrive at its next port--in Venezuela--on June 2nd.

Washington is at an impasse here. If they want to physically stop the Iranian tankers, the move will have to be made before they hit Venezuelan waters or it will get even messier. But there are some indications that they will just let it pass without any physical response, and possibly without any response at all, including more sanctions, unless Iran starts continually providing Maduro with fuel. In that case, Iran wins again, and Maduro, too, and the US definitively bows out of the foreign fight.

Temporary Reprieve for Mexico Renewables

In a thinly veiled attempt in late April to give the state utility a serious advantage over private renewable energy projects, under the guise of the COVID-19 pandemic, Mexico president AMLO ordered a freeze on the opening of new renewable power plants. It was a brazen move that was clear for what it was, but this is where AMLO's power has its limits: A Mexican judge on May 18th provisionally suspended AMLO's order.

But this isn't over. AMLO has demonstrated a dangerous penchant for attacking private industry, though he is attempting to make it clear that he's only attacking those who are backed by his political detractors. The attack on renewables - which is exactly how the international community is viewing it - goes beyond that alleged strategy. Going forward, the Mexican Energy Minister, Rocio Nahle, has published an order granting more power to the government to control renewable energy project approvals.