• 4 minutes Ten Years of Plunging Solar Prices
  • 7 minutes Hydrogen Capable Natural Gas Turbines
  • 10 minutes World looks on in horror as Trump flails over pandemic despite claims US leads way
  • 13 minutes Large gas belt discovered in China
  • 4 hours Chicago Threatens To Condemn - Possibly Demolish - Churches Defying Lockdown
  • 23 mins Let’s Try This....
  • 27 mins The CDC confirms remarkably low coronavirus death rate. Where is the media?
  • 59 mins New Aussie "big batteries"
  • 7 hours COVID 19 May Be Less Deadly Than Flu Study Finds
  • 8 hours China to Impose Dictatorship on Hong Kong
  • 4 hours Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Times of Large Debt:
  • 15 hours 60 mph electric mopeds
  • 23 hours Nothing can shake AMLO’s fossil-fuel fixation
  • 20 hours Iran's first oil tanker has arrived near Venezuela
  • 1 day US-China tech competition accelerates: on Friday 05/15 new sanctions on Huawei, on Monday 05/18 Samsung chief visits China
Ross McCracken

Ross McCracken

Ross is an energy analyst, writer and consultant who was previously the Managing Editor of Platts Energy Economist

More Info

Oil Demand Destruction: A Trade War Reality

Chinese-US trade figures in August came in well below expectations illustrating the negative impact of the ongoing trade war. Chinese exports to the US in August were down 16%, while imports from the US dropped by 22%. Overall, Chinese exports fell 1% year on year, the biggest drop since June, when they slumped 1.3%.

However, Beijing and Washington have agreed to restart trade negotiations in early October with officials already attempting to lay the groundwork.

The problem is we have been here before only to see the talks break down and the US escalate the war with new tariffs, against which China then retaliates. New talks are positive, but only if they produce a positive result.

Another problem is that time has taken its toll.

Already back in June, the World Bank revised down its forecast for global GDP growth to 2.6%, creeping back up to a still meager 2.7% in 2020 and 2.8% in 2021. In early September, BP chief financial officer Brian Gilvary forecast that global oil demand would rise by less than 1 million b/d this year as consumption slows.

In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the US Energy Information Administration has also cut back its forecast for growth in global liquids consumption this year from 1.0 million b/d to 0.89 million b/d. Growth in 2020 is forecast at 1.4 million b/d. This has to be set against growth in non-OPEC supply of 2.18 million b/d in 2019 and 2.21 million b/d in 2020.

Weak demand undermines OPEC’s…




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News