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Dan Dicker

Dan Dicker

Dan Dicker is a 25 year veteran of the New York Mercantile Exchange where he traded crude oil, natural gas, unleaded gasoline and heating oil…

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Ignore Low Volume Market Zig-Zags In August

Heading into August, the smartest advice I’ve taken has been to back away from markets. Volumes are weak, interest is small (particularly in an election year), and the temptations get large to do stupid things with your money – you’ll see many supposed sure-fire “opportunities” that can turn quickly south in thin markets.

That’s why I hesitate to get further involved in even prized oil stocks here, despite the fact that a mounting gasoline glut has allowed oil prices to decay under $42 a barrel and taken some US E+P’s down to seemingly tasty levels. I’ve seen this show before, and I don’t want to fall for it. It’s an uneven picture: Some of our stocks are at levels that would beg for a bit of adding, like EOG Resources (EOG) at $78 a share, or Cimarex (XEC), getting closer to $110. Others are holding up surprisingly well even as oil has dropped more than $8, like Anadarko Petroleum (APC) (which reported fantastically well) at around $54, or Continental (CLR), which refuses to trade under $40 again. This kind of ‘mixed bag’ of signals has me ready to head out to the beach as well and leave the portfolio just as it is for now.

It’s hard to do. The drop in crude prices has all the boo birds back in business, claiming a new downtrend that won’t see oil significantly rally again for at least a year. Goldman Sachs is one house that has claimed this in a note today. Morgan Stanley, despite…

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