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Big Oil Dividends Are Under Threat

1. Silver prices surge

- Even as gold is trading near its highest levels in a decade, silver has gained, even more, closing the gap between the two precious metals.

- At over $20 per troy ounce, silver is trading at a four-year high, rising by 70 percent from its 11-year low in March.

- Gold has only increased 24 percent over that timeframe.

- The gold/silver ratio has fallen below 90 for the first time in five months.

- “As with gold, silver’s upswing has been driven almost exclusively by robust investment demand,” Commerzbank wrote in a note.

2. Gas demand takes Covid hit, but still rises

- Global natural gas demand has been hit hard by the pandemic and the economic downturn, and the scars will be long-lasting.

- Europe, for instance, will not return to pre-pandemic gas demand levels until 2025. But Asia – especially China – will resume strong growth as soon as next year.

- The softness this year has led to canceled LNG cargoes, full storage, and low prices.

- The demand scars could push off FIDs in new projects.

- “The growth in LNG export capacity begins to slow in 2021 and beyond as the US trains coming on ramp up to capacity,” the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies wrote in a report. “There are only a few new projects starting up in the next three years or so.”

3. Oil majors’ dividends at risk

- Royal Dutch Shell…





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