Non-OPEC crude oil supply will rise by 2.4 million bpd next year, OPEC said in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report.
The cartel added that the rise would be driven by the addition of new pipeline capacity in North America, most likely meaning the United States as Canada's pipeline woes continue and Mexico struggles to reverse declining production. In fact, OPEC mentioned the natural decline of production in Mexico would offset the effect of rising non-OPEC supply somewhat.
It's not just the U.S. that will expand production, however. New projects in Norway, Brazil and Australia will also contribute to the increase in non-OPEC supply.
However, OPEC has revised downwards its non-OPEC supply growth projections for this year: it sees growth at 2.05 million bpd, down by 95,000 bpd from its previous monthly forecast. That would bring the total non-OPEC supply to a daily average of 64.43 million bpd.
In demand, OPEC expects the 2020 increase to remain unchanged from this year, at 1.4 million bpd. Non-OECD countries will account for most of this, at 1.05 million bpd while OECD countries will contribute about 900,000 bpd to global demand growth.
Somewhat surprisingly, China will not be the largest driver of new oil demand. That, according to OPEC, will be the rest of Asia, with China's oil demand growing at a weaker pace than during this year.
The growth in demand for OPEC oil specifically is seen slowing down next year: OPEC has forecast that the total would average 29.3 million bpd in 2020, down by 1.3 million bpd from this year. The daily rate of demand decline is 100,000 bpd more than the cuts OPEC agreed to with its non-OPEC partners in December last year and suggests the deal might have to be extended further than the end of March 2020, which OPEC and its partners agreed on earlier this month.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
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Comments
One of these unsubstantiated claims is that non-OPEC crude oil supply will rise by 2.4 million barrels a day (mbd) in 2020 with most of the new supply coming from the United States, Norway and Brazil according to OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report.
US shale oil production is starting to slowdown. After having grown by 1.54 million barrels a day (mbd) from 9.36 mbd in 2017 to 10.9 mbd in 2018 according to the authoritative 2018 OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin, US oil production is projected to decline to 10-11 mbd in 2019 and 10 mbd or even less in 2020. US production growth is set to decelerate sharply from 2020 onwards.
As for Norway, its crude oil production declined by 6% from 1.96 mbd in 2017 to 1.84 mbd in 2018 according to the 2019 BP Statistical Review of World Energy. Brazil’s oil production also declined by 1.4% from 2.72 mbd in 2017 to 2.68 mbd in 2018 according to BP Statistical Review.
With US production projected to decline in 2020 and with Norway’s and Brazil’s production also projected to trend down, how could non-OPEC oil supply then rise by 2.4 mbd. OPEC has already revised downwards its non-OPEC supply growth projections for this year by 95,000 barrels a day (b/d) and I expect it to do the same for 2020.
Another unsubstantiated claim is that China will not be the largest driver of new oil demand. If not China the world’s largest economy based on purchasing power parity (PPP), then which country in Asia. China is not only going to continue accounting for the bulk of global oil demand growth well into the future but its oil imports are projected to hit 11 mbd in 2019 and exceed that figure in 2020.
Iraq is projected to add more than 1 mbd with its production rising to 6 mbd in 2020, 6-7 mbd by 2023 and 8 mbd by 2030 provided its production expansion plans go ahead as planned.
Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International Oil Economist
Visiting Professor of Energy Economics at ESCP Europe Business School, London