If Hugo Chavez Dies Cuba and the Caribbean Economies could Collapse

[Ed Mojica]

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’s battle with cancer threatens $7 billion of subsidized oil exports that help prop up Cuba’s economy and contain inflation in Caribbean nations. He was hospitalized in Havana after a fourth operation to try and remove cancerous cells from his body.

Chavez created Petrocaribe in 2005. The alliance’s members can buy oil from state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela, or PDVSA, at market prices, paying as little as 5 percent upfront and the remainder over 25 years at 1 percent interest rate.

If Chavez’s successor ends the funding scheme, Caribbean economies still struggling to bolster tourism after the 2008 financial crisis would face further budgetary strains.

[Seabastian.Smith]

What are the chances that Hugo Chavez's successor will end the funding? Is it highly likely?