Climate Change is Inevitable
But no matter what the diplomats in Doha decide over the next week, it now appears inevitable that the world will indeed hit that 2-degree mark and could well shoot past it to average global increases of 4 degrees or 6 degrees—points at which scientists predict even worse catastrophes.
A scientific study published Sunday in the journal Nature Climate Change concluded that the world’s rapid increase in fossil fuel emissions now makes a global average temperature increase of 2 degrees Celsius all but inevitable. A report released last week by the U.N. Environment Program concluded that given the rapid projected increase in pollution from burning coal, oil, and gas around the world, nations’ current pledges to cut carbon emissions won’t be enough to stave off that 2-degree rise sometime before the end of the century.
From your point of view that is alarming, but I am comforted with the knowledge that most of the alarming predictions over the years have not come true. This is especially true in the field of climate change. The models predict increasing temps but IPCC and the MET report they have been steady over the last 16 years. Despite the media hype regarding Sandy, hurricane activity has been well below average for years. Other severe weather phenomenon have also been occurring less or with less intensity.
the models have not held up well at all, so lately, I have put more faith in facts instead. I offer this as a comfort if it helps.
At the same time sea levels have risen 11mm since 1992.
Changes will happen not in a linear way but in a hyperbolic way.
Arctic sea has less and less ice every year.
Ice caps are loosing ice, especially in greenland.
In Norway I have seen ice shelfs that are few thousand years old and that have melted faster than growing in the past 20 years. Shortening by few kilometers.
These are the facts most people won't notice living closer to equator.
Could there be any other explanation for climate change? Or is human activity the only possible explanation?
Hi The Hulk . . that is a good question and one that occupies all the atmospheric scientists, plus a lot more people who know something or nothing about the problem.
A good starting point is this summary of the scientific evidence by the Royal Society:
It's a society started in the 1600s that had Isaac Newton among others in its membership, and many more eminent scientists since then.
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