GeoPolitics

Ecuador Continues Its Defense in Arbitration Commenced By Chevron (0 comments)

On March 11, 2010, the Honorable Leonard Sand, U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, denied the Republic of Ecuador’s Petition to Stay the pending arbitration commenced by Chevron Corp. under the U.S.-Ecuador Bilateral Invest

Damage Done By Nigeria’s Contentious Oil Bill May Be Tough To Undo (0 comments)

Nigeria's controversial oil industry bill is expected to eventually pass but the government may find it tough to later shift gears as international oil firms targeted under the legislation scale back their investments.

The Nigerian parliament i

Libya: The Energy Player Not to Be Dismissed (2 comments)

On September 1, 2009, Libya lavishly celebrated the 40 years in power of its leader Colonel Muammar Gaddafi. Once qualified as the mad dog of the Middle East by President Ronald Reagan, Gaddafi has demonstrated a sheer ability to make of his once paria

Iraqi Elections Likely To Fuel Ethnic Tensions, Further Delay Access To Kirkuk's Reserves (1 comments)

The elections in Iraq on March 7, 2010, are likely to serve as an important indicator of the prospects for a resolution of the long-running dispute over the administration of the ethnically mixed and resource-rich province of Kirkuk in the north of the

Yemen's Push Into the Gas Sector Fails to Stimulate Great Excitement and Raises Disturbing Questions (0 comments)

With Yemen’s oil revenues plunging, the government’s push into the gas market seemed like an economic saving grace for a state wracked by poverty and terrorism, but analysts warn more thought should be given to carving out the country

Renewed Battle for the Falkland Islands Suits the Embattled British, Argentine Leaders, and Others (0 comments)

The artificially-engendered revival of the dispute, which began in February 2010 between Argentina and the United Kingdom over the sovereignty of the Falkland Islands in the South Atlantic, has been portrayed as a posturing by embattled Argentine Pres.

China's Ambitions Reshaping South Asia as it Surges into India's Backyard (1 comments)

It’s a truism that the 21st century future of not just Asia, but the entire world, will be significantly determined by the relationship between the globe’s two fastest-growing large economies, China and India.

As most observers know

Kurds Push for Oil Law with Baghdad Amid South's Sudden Bright Future (0 comments)

While the Iraqi government has made overtures to its Kurdish counterpart in the north to end an oil standoff, much remains in doubt without an actual law keeping the industry in check - rules which this time the Kurds are pressing for rather than Baghd

Libya Courting Oil & Gas Investors but Faces a Tough Sell Following Recent Government Fiascos (3 comments)

The Libyan government has been sounding off lately about boosting the profile of its oil and gas market, but it’s questionable whether international companies will ignore the government’s missteps in the industry - not to mention the recent

The US-PRC Strategic Divide Begins (3 comments)

The simmering difficulties in the US strategic relationship with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) were, by the beginning of 2010, ready to emerge despite the attempts of the US Administration of Pres. Barack Obama to show a pattern of deferen

Iran Unfazed By Congressional Threats of New Energy Sanctions (0 comments)

U.S. lawmakers are toughening their stance on Iran’s energy industry with new economic penalties, but experts doubt the Islamic regime will pay much attention and is more likely to open the doors even wider to other players eager to replace fleei

As the Middle East Peace Talks Hit Deadlock, Talk of Israel Joining the European Union Increases (7 comments)

The Middle East peace talks are at a deadlock. Negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians to move ahead with the plan established by the so-called Quartet – the US., U.N., EU and Russia -- have faltered and come to a complete standstill. Co

10 Geopolitical Predictions for 2010 & Short Term Strategic Outlook (11 comments)

A great - and still growing - divergence appeared in 2009 between public statements by leaders and their public performance. The politicized, romanticized theater of increasingly populist “democratic” leaders and media seemed to be of a dif

Gazprom: Angel or Demon? (1 comments)

Gazprom faces regular opprobrium for its bullying ways of using energy as a pressure and political tool. Seen by some, mostly Russians, as the symbol of a successful and strong Russia, others see it as a dominating juggernaut, economic right arm of the

Changing the Balance of Power: 16 Geopolitical Megatrends Affecting Every Aspect of your Life (4 comments)

Substantial and unmistakable signs of profound change in the global strategic framework have become concrete in the past year. The stress in the structure has already developed into fissures. The transformation, in reality, has been underway since the

Intelligence Report from Capitol Hill (1 comments)

From the Free Intelligence Report -  

President Barack Obama delivers his State of the Union address this evening with the hard pivot to the economy, jobs and financi

Despite Financial Constraints, Indonesia Continues to Slowly Modernize its Defenses (0 comments)

Indonesia, although a considerable distance from being a state capable of projecting power, has begun to bring greater focus to its strategic situation, and, at the same time, it is moving toward a consolidation of the Yudhoyono era.

Even absent

Media and Political Hysteria Over Yemen Hides a Deeper Strategic Matrix of Long-Term Importance (3 comments)

US and Western European political leaders have begun to focus on Yemen as a source of projected instability and as a haven for jihadist terrorism against the West.

This simplistic and overly narrow view has largely been a reaction to m

Nigeria's Constitutional Dilemma Coming to an Unpredictable Head (1 comments)

Nigerian Pres. Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, 59, through failing health, is clearly no longer in control of the Government. Some are proclaiming that the "post-Yar'Adua era" has begun in Nigerian politics, but the reality is that there is st

The US Finds its Superpower Structure and Capital are Insufficient to Cope with a Transformed World (5 comments)

The United States of America, in global strategic terms, is tumbling down a series of misadventures, declining in a “step of sighs” through frustrating economic and military endeavours as it discovers that its superpower structures and mass

Land-locked Central Asian Oil Country Plays Important Role from Vancouver to Vladivostok (0 comments)

2010 is starting with a decision that faced heated debates: Kazakhstan will hold the chairmanship of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) for one year, despite what many considered as a questionable political and democratic t

Sharoudi Emerging as Candidate to Replace Khamene'i as Iranian "Supreme Leader" (0 comments)

Very senior officials in several Persian Gulf states have confirmed to GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs a growing volume of whispers coming from Tehran since mid-December 2009 which identify Iranian Ayatollah Sayed Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi (

Iran to Surge to a Hegemonic Position in the Middle East Without a Major War (0 comments)

Despite the lingering demonstrations and disorder in Tehran, Iran’s ruling mullahs are confident anew in their country’s ability to surge to a hegemonic position in the Middle East without a major war. The main reason for the mullahs’

Interests in Afghanistan and Pakistan Set to Collide, With Global Implications (0 comments)

The coming year: 2010, will see a growing clash of conflicting mega-trends in the Afghanistan-Pakistan theater; trends which will ultimately have long-term impact not only on the region, but on all of Eurasia and global energy and political arenas.

Iraq to Challenge Saudi Arabia for the Position of World's Largest Oil Producer, if... (0 comments)

Baghdad is coming of age in its own backyard with the awarding of contracts for developing its oil reserves while taking care of its assets as evident from its tough stand with Tehran.

The country’s Oil Minister recently announced that the

India Facing Fierce Competition in its Search for Oil and Natural Gas Resources (0 comments)

While energy-strapped India is scouring the globe for oil and gas - a bid that recently took it to Sudan and Russia where India signed two memoranda of understanding, and to Iran where it forged two agreements – the South Asian nation is also urg

Arab Leaders Finally Awake to Growing Iranian Threat (0 comments)

In order to survive revolutions must continue to propagate themselves or else they die; that was true of revolutions on the left that saw their golden years in the late 1950s and ‘60s in much of Latin America and communist Eastern Europe, and it

Nigerian Leadership Crisis Impacting Global Energy Markets (0 comments)
The illness of Nigerian Pres. Umaru Musa Yar’Adua has now reached the point where it can no longer be hidden from the Nigerian electorate, and the prospect for a change of leadership is now imminent, as forecast exclusively by this service in early

Growing Power of Iraqi Kurdistan Could Backfire on Tehran (0 comments)
Iran's strategy to break Iraq into three component territories, and to dominate those territories in order to reduce regional opposition and to gain unfettered access to Syria and the Mediterranean as a result of the Western invasion of Iraq in 2004,

Climate Change: Clean Coal, Nuclear Energy or Simply Energy Savings? (0 comments)

On November 6, 2009 The World Coal Institute released its new report "Securing the Future - Financing CCS in a Post-2012 World." One revealing sentence on the website says “significant investments are needed in Carbon Capture and Geolog

Is Turkey Shifting Alliances? (0 comments)
For the last several decades it was generally assumed that Israel was the United States’ staunchest ally in the Greater Middle East. But when former Nebraskan Republican Senator Chuck Hagel introduced Turkey’s prime minister in Washington last

The Great Competition Over Energy Shoves and Shapes the Emergence of the "New Caucasus" (0 comments)

The South Caucasus: Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia - is at an historic "T" junction in the road. The next turn could result in a regional eruption of violence which would spread beyond the region and would most likely to involve all three m

Iran Gains Strategic Momentum Balancing Russia, the PRC and the West (0 comments)

Iran is gathering momentum to become a great regional power with global implications. It is already a nuclear weapons power, with externally-acquired nuclear weapons. But the question facing Iranians and the external community is the style of governanc

The Continuing Saga of Iran's Nuclear Build-Up (0 comments)

History was made about ten days ago in Vienna at a meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency when China and Russia voted along with the United States to sanction the Islamic Republic of Iran over its continued pursuit of nuclear energy. Iran, i

Environmentalists Admit Being Wrong for 40 Years - Shackles of Nuclear Power Being Removed (0 comments)

Although very little happened, Nov. 24 was a red letter day for the nation's nuclear power industry. No new nuclear reactors were purchased, no breakthrough in treating nuclear waste was announced, and the Obama administration did not declare that

Central Asia's Most Precious Resource - Water, Not Oil (0 comments)

 “In every drop of water there is a grain of gold.” - Aral proverb 

Since the 1991 collapse of the USSR, foreign investors have looked at the former Soviet space as a land rich in underdeveloped resources waiting for Wester

Turkey and Russia - Tender Relations Over Nuclear Power (0 comments)

The recent announcement of a stay of execution on three of the clauses of the legislative framework for the building of Turkey’s first ever nuclear power plant has reinforced doubts about the viability of the project and threatens to strain Turke

Interdependence, Integration and Investment:The Ineluctable Need to Find New Emerging Oil Players (0 comments)

In October 2009, Nobuo Tanaka, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), who was presenting at the International Energy Week and at the Oil Congress held in Moscow, predicted a medium-term stabilization of global oil demand in 2010-1

The Caspian Fortune Cookie - $12 trillion at Stake; Beijing Happy With "Multiple Pipelines" (0 comments)

One of the major irritants for international oil companies is when parochial national policies get in the way of their quest for profits. Nowhere is this more evident than in the global feeding frenzy to develop the Caspian’s energy assets.

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Turkmen Gas - Caveat emptor (0 comments)

Of the five nations surrounding the Caspian – Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Iran, Russia and Turkmenistan, the hydrocarbon riches of Turkmenistan remain the last great prize, sought and fought over by Russia, China, Iran and Western investors. A recent

America's Best Ally in Afghanistan - Russia (1 comments)

As the Obama Administration ponders how to produce something resembling victory from the Afghan quagmire, it faces a number of foreign policy choices, few of them palatable.

Despite the earnest entreaties of the first Bush Administration and now

Georgia - Energy Bridge To Conflict (0 comments)

U.S. foreign and energy policies are inextricably linked, closer than Siamese twins. Since the 1991 collapse of the USSR, Washington’s foreign policy has been to advance NATO up to the borders of the Russian Federation while converting former Sov

Afghan War a Subset of U.S. Efforts to Secure Central Asian Energy Riches (0 comments)
Operation Enduring Freedom, on Oct. 7 will begin its ninth year. At $4 billion per month, a National Priorities Project has determined that the total cost of military operations in Afghanistan by the end of the year will be almost $200 billion. Thoughtful

The Benefits of Natural Gas (0 comments)
Natural gas is nifty stuff. It burns twice as clean as other fossil fuels, leaves no ash to be disposed of and is critical to many industrial processes.

It is used for everything from drying grain to distilling liquor. It also can fairly ea