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  • Oil Market Fundamental & Technical Analysis – 26th September 2014

    Weekly Crude Oil AnalysisThe short-term picture for November crude oil futures turned a little rosier after prices consolidated for a third week. Some of the buying was related to profit-taking following the prolonged move down in price and time, some was fueled by geopolitical concerns, but most of the buying appears to be related to another drawdown in inventory. Technical factors may have contributed to the profit-taking. Given the range created by the July 2012 bottom at $82.07 to the June 2014 top at $104.44, a major retracement zone has been created at $93.26 to .90.62. Although the market broke…

  • Global Energy Advisory - 26th September 2014

    Geopolitical & Conflict UpdatesIraqFor August 2014, Iraq’s oil export revenues were down to $7.1 billion, from $7.8 billion in July. Exports for August were at 73.6 million barrels, and the selling price for Iraqi crude was at $97.4 per barrel, down from $102.8 per barrel in July. This reflects the cutoff of exports from the oilfields in northern Kirkuk since the beginning of March due to the Islamic State’s (IS) overrunning of the area and attack on a pipeline to Turkey, while production continues unimpeded in Iraq’s major-exporting southern fields.This is just a sneak preview, though of the geopolitical quagmire…

  • Panama Canal Expansion to Grow LNG Trade

    The U.S. is in a relatively strong position to take advantage of Asian demand for natural gas. There are now a total of three proposed export terminals for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the U.S. that have achieved all the necessary permits. With full federal approval, political risk for LNG exports can be laid to rest. Now, the bigger challenge for LNG exporters is finding and securing a captive market for their product. In this regard, there is a lot to be excited about as well.But investing in U.S. LNG exporters is not without risks. For one, a rapid rise…

  • A Big Pension Fund Is Investing Heavily In Clean Energy. What Should You Do?

    Earlier this week, one of the largest pension funds in America, the California State Teachers’ Retirement System (CalSTRS) made an announcement that was of particular interest to energy investors. They announced that they would be nearly tripling the amount they have invested, bringing it to around $3.7 Billion. Obviously, that a fund of that size is to step up investment in that sector is good news, but investors should be careful not to read too much into the announcement.First, let’s look at what they didn’t say. They didn’t, as some coverage of the news has suggested, say that they are…

  • Weather Forecast Looks Bright For LNG But I’m Skeptical

    For a lifetime trader of fossil fuels, it’s been like living in the dark.  I’ve never seen a better market to be long crude oil, where the risks to the upside were, to me, exponentially deeper than the possibilities to the downside – but my shrinking profit and loss statements have been a contrary indicator to be sure.Natural gas has been almost the exact opposite, where downside risks are far more numerous than the possibilities for a big move higher.  And yet, nat gas is showing some surprising strength, considering the moderate summer we’ve just come through.  As with crude…

  • Three Trends Energy Investors Should be Following

    I don’t spend much time finding very short-term trades, as regular readers know.  Staring at my screens and trying to find a great long-term trade hasn’t been a breeze either.  It’s not that the trends aren’t there to be found; it’s more that there are few ways I see right now to put them in actionable motion.But noting those trends are the first step and I see three of them, with the actual trades following later.  They are:1-    The inexorably rising price of crude2-    The relative advantage of US Exploration and Production and3-    The Liquid Natural Gas opportunityFinding trades to…

  • Emerson Electric (EMR): Even The Opportunity For A Profit Makes Me Mad

    As I advance in years I find that, unlike many people, fewer things make me angry. I guess I am just coming to terms with the fact that the world doesn’t always operate in the way I think it should, but seems to be doing pretty well all the same. One thing, however, that does still stir some anger and frustration is when a corporation, or more accurately its stock, is punished for poor short term results when the long term outlook is positive. Such is the case with Emerson Electric (EMR).When, in early August, Emerson announced their earnings and…

  • Larger Than Expected Natural Gas Inventories Spells Trouble for Producers

    In a surprising turn of events, rising supplies of oil and tepid global demand have caused prices to crash to their lowest levels in years.And the same phenomenon may be playing out for natural gas, at least in the United States. An increase in supply and soft summer demand are combining to see rapid build ups in storage inventory, according to new data from the Energy Information Administration. But let’s back up a minute. The unusually cold winter of 2014 saw a record-breaking drawdown in natural gas inventories as power plants ramped up to supply enough heating, particularly on the…

  • Global Energy Advisory - 19th September 2014

    Geopolitical & Conflict UpdatesCentral AsiaWe are closely watching the spillover effect of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, as Central Asian states become more disillusioned with Moscow. Russia is also provoking discontent in Central Asia by making vague references to Kazakhstan’s statehood that have not been well-received, while Uzbekistan now has more justification for its long-running skepticism of Moscow’s intentions. We expect continued provocations by Moscow and moves by Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan to assert their administrations’ control over foreign policy. IraqReports are emerging that the Islamic State (IS) was earning around $3 million per day in July from oil sales related to…

  • Speculators May Rally to Crude After Nigeria and Libya Problems

    November Crude Oil futures are in a position to close the week higher. This possible reversal on the weekly chart coupled with the strong upside price action earlier in the week, suggests the market may be in a position to change the trend to up on the daily chart. The current upside price action suggests investors may be starting to turn their backs on the bearish fundamentals. Early Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. crude inventories rose 3.67 million barrels to 362.3 million the previous week. This represented the biggest increase in five months.Furthermore, traders had priced…