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Premium Article Archive

  • Oil Price Recovery Will Be Slow, Steady And Painful

    I’ve been trading oil and learning about oil companies for 30 years, and one thing I can tell you is that the common wisdom about the oil market is almost always simplistic, unreliable and wrong.  I was openly bullish on oil as it approached $90, because I know that the strength of the dollar is a spurious trading connection that has never been as strong as right now.  I also don’t believe in the commitment of the Saudis to a price war – today’s report showed that, true to form, the Saudis cut production in September to match their drop…

  • Things Are Looking Up For Marathon Petroleum

    When stocks in a sector come under pressure, as has been the case with energy stocks over the last few months, the speed with which an individual stock bounces back when things begin to turn around can tell you a lot. If there are sound fundamental or company specific reasons for a stock to fall with everything else then any bounce back will be somewhat muted initially. Conversely, when something is dragged down with everything else despite decent prospects the snap back can be quite spectacular. When a stock jumps over 15 percent from its lows in less than a…

  • The Untapped Potential of the Levant Basin

    The Eastern Mediterranean is an emerging region for natural gas development, and the resources underneath the seabed hold out the promise of an economic bounty to several small countries in the area.Some of the natural gas fields just recently began to flow, but the buzz began back in 2010 when a U.S. Geological Survey report estimated that the Eastern Mediterranean held 1.7 billion barrels of oil and 122 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Known as the Levant Basin Province, the natural gas deposits stretch from the waters just off the coast of Israel, north to Lebanese and Syrian waters,…

  • Global Energy Advisory – 24th October 2014

    Politics, Geopolitics & ConflictYemen Chaos on All FrontsYemen is by far our biggest oil and gas red flag this year, and the past month has seen the situation here reach a critical point. Weeks of protests by Houthi and then fighting between Houthi and rival forces in the capital Sanaa left over 200 people dead. This is a complicated conflict that has divided the Yemen security forces, half of which have sided with the Houthi. A peace deal has since temporarily ended the fighting, but sporadic, targeted attacks by the Houthi against their political enemies continue, while al-Qaeda-linked forces continue…

  • Vigilance Needed To Determine Extent Of Recent Rally

    While most investors were focused on the recent volatility in the equity markets and the weakness in the crude oil and natural gas markets, shrewd money managers were taking advantage of the low prices in the oil sector and buying undervalued stocks.  One ETF market that may have turned the corner at least in the short run is the S&P Energy Select (XLE). After reaching its lowest level since the week-ending June 28, 2013, it posted a strong rebound from last week’s low at $77.51. It is currently trading close to 10% higher at $86.28. Based on its sell-off from…

  • How Cool Heads Can Prevail In This Panic

    The oil market’s in freefall, the stock market is in freefall.  You’re taking losses, big losses, in stocks that you bought – not at the top of the market where valuations were high – but at areas you thought were terrific long-term propositions.  What do you do now?I am precisely where you are right now, because I am an oil trader, first and foremost.  And I can’t tell you what is going to be right for you, I can only tell you what is right for me.  And for right now, I’m standing pat and even committing a little more…

  • Dealing With Losses

    Unfortunately most investors in general and energy investors in particular are probably looking at some pretty alarming losses in their portfolios after the events of the last few weeks. Over time your performance as a trader or an investor doesn’t depend on whether you have any losses, as some positions going against you is one of the few certain things in a trader’s world. What counts in the long run is how you deal with them when they come.Understanding that not all investments will work out is the first step in dealing with adversity. If you know that sometimes even…

  • How Fusion Energy Could One Day Disrupt Energy Markets

    Fusion is thirty years away…and always will be. That is an oft-repeated cliché concerning one of the world’s most coveted – and so far unreachable – sources of energy. However, some recent developments in fusion energy technology could one day make that phrase obsolete. Fusion energy is the phenomenon that powers the stars. Unlike conventional nuclear fission, where a uranium atom is split, giving off enormous volumes of energy, nuclear fusion is the process by which two hydrogen atoms are slammed together. This also gives off a vast quantity of energy, and with it, the promise that man can harness…

  • Global Energy Advisory – 17th October 2014

    Geopolitical HighlightsKurdish CrudeBaghdad has banned three foreign oil tankers from entering Iraqi ports. United Carrier, United Dynamic and Nautilus—all of which have transported Kurdish crude and bypassed the Iraqi central authorities--have been banned. United Dynamic and United Carrier are managed by Greece-based Marine Management Services, which has previously been targeted by Baghdad in a September lawsuit over Kurdish crude. The ban is just a small hiccup in a burgeoning business of unilateral sales of Kurdish crude on international markets. This week, another tanker registered in the Marshall Islands left the Turkish port of Ceyhan with 1 million barrels of Kurdish…

  • Pressure May Remain On Oil Prices

    Weekly Natural Gas OutlookLast week, December Natural Gas futures traded through the July 28 bottom at 3.877, putting the market in an extremely bearish position. Since there is still time before the start of the winter heating season, it looks as if this market still has work to do on the downside before becoming attractive enough for buyers. As long as the product keeps coming into inventory and the cold weather stays away, the charts indicate that the market still has room to the downside. One target is the 2014 low at 3.0990. The next is last year’s fall bottom…