Today marks the end of…
The Railroad Commission of Texas…
The Texas RRC is out with their latest Oil and Gas Production Data. Looks like oil production has leveled out with March production pretty much level with February. All RRC data is through March 2015.
I always show the last 6 months or the RRC data in order to get a pretty good indication of which way data production is moving. From the data you can see that December was a very good month but January was just awful. February was a lot better and March was about the same as February.
The chart above was created by Dean Fantazzini, PhD, of the Moscow School of Economics. He has developed an algorithm which predicts what the data will reflect after the final data has come in. His data suggests that Texas crude has plateaued.
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For more on the underlying methodology of Dr. Fantazzini see:
Condensate seems to have plateaued as well.
And Dean’s data confirms that the last three months condensate production comes in at a little below the December numbers.
Adding crude and condensate we get what the EIA counts, crude + condensate. The EIA data is only through February while the RRC data is through March.
Dean has Texas C+C slightly higher than the EIA in December but falling well below them in the last three months. It looks like that Texas has plateaued, so far, at about the December production level.
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Texas gas well gas seems to be in serious decline.
Texas associated gas has been increasing but will now likely plateau along with oil.
Texas total gas in March comes in above January but well below December.
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(Click to enlarge)
And Dean’s algorithm has Texas total gas peaking, so far, in December.
By Ron Patterson
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Ron Patterson is a retired computer engineer. He worked in Saudi Arabia for five years, two years at the Ghazlan Power Plant near Ras Tanura…