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The Canadian National Energy Board lowered its expectations for the oil price recovery on Wednesday due to the falling costs of energy production and challenging environmental regulations.
By 2020, barrel prices will rise to an inflation-adjusted $68, which is $12 less than the agency’s previous prediction. The government’s 2040 projection fell by $17 from its January figure of $90.
“A lot of it is the ability of oil production to be sustained at lower prices,” Shelley Milutinovic, chief economist of the energy board told The Star. “There’s an expectation that somewhere between 40 and 60 dollars a barrel, you can get a lot of oil production around the world.”
Renewables are slated to increase their share of the Canadian energy market to 12 percent by 2040, instead of the eight percent forecasted in the January edition of the report.
“Things are changing very, very quickly, particularly with respect to climate policy,” Milutinovic said. “It’s a very fast-moving target.”
Canadian environmentalists have been protesting the Trans Mountain oil pipeline over the past few weeks.
Originally it had been reported that up to one hundred protesters were arrested by the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) this week for attempting to break security barricades. The police group later clarified, saying that some fifty demonstrators were briefly detained for trespassing and ticketed without arrest.
The Trans Mountain pipeline run by Kinder Morgan currently transports some 300,000 barrels per day of crude oil and refined petroleum from the oil sands in Alberta westward to British Columbia and Washington State.
According to Kinder Morgan, the proposed expansion would cost some US$6.8 billion, add around 980 kilometers of new pipeline, and allow for the additional transport of “heavier oils with capability for transporting light crude oils.” The expanded pipeline could transport 890,000 barrels per day.
Zainab Calcuttawala for Oilprice.com
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Zainab Calcuttawala is an American journalist based in Morocco. She completed her undergraduate coursework at the University of Texas at Austin (Hook’em) and reports on…