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Bakken September Production Data Yields Odd Results

North Dakota just released the Bakken September Production Data as well as the September Production data for all North Dakota.

There was a surprisingly hefty increase in Bakken production in September, up 52,568 bpd to 1,120,031 bpd.

Bakken Production

North Dakota production was up slightly less, 52,394 bpd to 1,184,693 bpd. This means production outside the Bakken was down slightly.

North Dakota Production

These big increases happen every so often and are usually followed by a not so large increase for a few months. I think there is some kind of reporting anomaly here. But as you can see the 12 month average increase gives a better indication of what is really going on.

Related: Gulf Of Mexico Deepwater Reserves May Have Been Overestimated

From the Director’s Cut:

Aug Producing Wells = 11,565
Sep Producing Wells = 11,741 (preliminary)(NEW all-time high)
8,238 wells or 70% are now unconventional Bakken – Three forks wells
3,503 wells or 30% produce from legacy conventional pools

Aug Sweet Crude Price = $78.46/barrel
Sep Sweet Crude Price = $74.50/barrel
Oct Sweet Crude Price = $68.94/barrel
Today Sweet Crude Price = $58.75/barrel (all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)
WTI Trigger price is at $77.18 today. The 2014 calendar year extraction tax trigger price
is $52.06. Extraction tax exemptions are triggered after 5 months below that price.
Aug rig count 193
Sep rig count 195
Oct rig count 191
Today’s rig count is 186 (all-time high was 218 on 5/29/2012)

The drilling rig count was up two from August to September, then dropped four
September to October and has since fallen five more from October to today. The number of well completions decreased from 272 in August to 176 in September. The primary cause is the focus on flaring reduction. Several operators have reported postponing completion work to achieve the NDIC gas capture goals. There were no major precipitation events, but there were 5 days with wind speeds in excess of 35 mph (too
high for completion work).

The drillers and completion crews pretty much kept pace in September. At the end of
September there were about 610 wells waiting on completion services, an increase of 10.

Related: OPEC Releases November Oil Production Report

This makes no sense at all. Well completions were down by 94 from August yet production increased three times the August increase.

Well Completions

All North Dakota producing wells stand at 11,406, up 196 by the North Dakota published stats. That is considerably different from Lynn Helms’ count of 176. I cannot explain that discrepancy.

BPD Chart

Bakken barrels per day per well was up by 3, from 129 t0 132.

I know this is a short post but there is just nothing more to report. Why was production up by a multiple of three while well completions were down by one third? Will someone please explain that?

By Ron Patterson

Source – www.peakoilbarrel.com

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  • David Hrivnak on November 23 2014 said:
    I believe there is a lag of a month or two as wells do not normally hit peak production the day the well is completed. If my theory is right you will likely see a leveling off of production the next few months.

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