Arabian Peninsula Keeps OPEC’s Production Up

The July OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is out with all OPEC Crude Only production data for June 2015.

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Crude Only production for the entire OPEC 12 as up 283,000 barrels per day in June to 31,378,000 bpd. But that was after May production had been revised up by 120,000 bpd. So counting May’s revisions and June’s numbers, OPEC production was up 403,000 bpd from what was originally reported last month.

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The biggest gainer, by far, was Iraq, up 198,600 barrels per day over May to 4,007,000 bpd. It is interesting to note that Iraq via “Direct Communication” say they only produced 3,591,000 bpd in June, 416,000 bpd less than what “Secondary Sources” said they produced.

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Saudi Arabia was up 48,400 bpd in June to 10,235,000 bpd. That is just over one half million barrels per day above their 2014 average.

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The United Arab Emirates barely increased production in June, up 6,800 bpd to 2,855,000 bpd.

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Kuwait was the only one of the big four to decline in June. They were down 9,000 bpd from May to 2,703,000 bpd and down 41,000 bpd from their peak September of 2013.

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I call Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE and Saudi the big four because since the first half of 2008 they have been responsible for keeping OPEC production almost flat since 2008. The first half of 2008 these four countries averaged 16,626,000 barrels per day. For the first half of 2015 they averaged 19,201,000 bpd for an increase of 2,575,000 bpd.

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The other eight also have been in a steady decline since 2008. In the first half of 2008 these eight countries averaged 14,615,000 bpd. In the first half of 2015 they averaged 11,531,000 bpd for a decline of 3,083,000 bpd.

All OPEC nations, during the first half of 2008, averaged 31,240,000 during the first half of 2008. During the first half of 2015 all OPEC nations averaged 30,732,000 bpd for a decline, so far, of 508,000 bpd. But OPEC production dropped significantly after July 2008 and ended the year averaging 31,066,000 bpd. Their high, since 2000, was 2012 when they averaged 31,143,000 bpd. I think it highly unlikely they will reach that average this year.

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Here are the data for OPEC as reported in their Monthly Oil Market Report.

Just one other item of note. OPEC expects Non-OPEC total liquids to increase by just 300,000 bpd in 2016. They expect the US to be up 380,000 bpd.

The page OPEC Charts has been updated with the June data for all 12 OPEC nations.

By Ron Patterson

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