OilPrice.com | Geopolitics

OilPrice.com | Geopolitics Geopolitical news and analysis that covers all regions and the impact geopolitics has on people, the economy, health and the markets. http://oilprice.com/ Fri, 25 May 2012 5:25:20 GMT Oilprice.com (info@oilprice.com) Azerbaijan's International Energy Aspirations Raise Tensions in Middle East http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Azerbaijans-International-Energy-Aspirations-Raise-Tensions-in-Middle-East.html Azerbaijan has been expanding its international energy aspirations further afield over the past several years, gaining assets in Switzerland, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey and Georgia, and offering to build installations in Libya, but it wasn’t until it entered the Israeli market that anyone took much interest in these developments, with Iran particularly on edge. Last fall, a subsidiary of Azerbaijan’s state-owned oil company SOCAR bought a 5 percent stake in Israel’s main oil field Med Ashdod, working alongside Israel’s…

]]> corporate@oilprice.com (Jen Alic) Tue, 15 May 2012 23:38:14 GMT http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Azerbaijans-International-Energy-Aspirations-Raise-Tensions-in-Middle-East.html Washington Not Equipped to Deal with Yemen http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Washington-Not-Equipped-to-Deal-with-Yemen.html As the US launches airstrikes on al-Qaeda targets in Yemen after a thwarted suicide bombing attempt on a US-bound flight, we are about see exactly how ill-equipped Washington is to deal with the complexities that are shaping the conflicts in Yemen. Unlike the attempted bombing of a US-bound aircraft on Christmas Day 2009, when a Nigerian man was thwarted by passengers on the plane while US intelligence agencies remained unaware of the situation, this latest bomb plot was actually (reportedly) carried out by a Saudi asset to a CIA and British MI5…

]]> corporate@oilprice.com (Jen Alic) Sun, 13 May 2012 13:49:57 GMT http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Washington-Not-Equipped-to-Deal-with-Yemen.html Has Julia Gillard's Time in Power Ruined Australia's Economy? http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Asia/Has-Julia-Gillards-Time-in-Power-Ruined-Australias-Economy.html Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s Labour Party (ALP)-dominated coalition Government of Australia has clung to power without an express public mandate since the August 21, 2010, House of Representatives elections. This has been largely because its parliamentary majority has been guaranteed by four independent parliamentarians and one member of the Greens party, all of whom recognize that they would be unlikely ever again to gain a position of power and vote with the ALP to preserve their privilege for as long as possible. Thus, Ms Gillard has…

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]]> gregs@oilprice.com (Gregory R. Copley) Fri, 11 May 2012 21:55:21 GMT http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Asia/Has-Julia-Gillards-Time-in-Power-Ruined-Australias-Economy.html The U.S. Turns its Back on Europe, Allowing Russia and China to Approach http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/The-U.S.-Turns-its-Back-on-Europe-Allowing-Russia-and-China-to-Approach.html Europe is at a pivotal point. Or, rather, it is at a point where its structural transformation can no longer be ignored. Events in Europe have finally led us to the dénouement of the 20th Century. It may presage a new Europe tied more firmly into the Eurasian heartland than old Europe. It is the end — ’though not without economic, social, and political pain — of the 20th Century form of Atlanticism. Similarly, the United States and much of the West is at a pivotal point, except that — by almost all public reaction…

]]> gregs@oilprice.com (Gregory R. Copley) Thu, 10 May 2012 22:37:38 GMT http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/The-U.S.-Turns-its-Back-on-Europe-Allowing-Russia-and-China-to-Approach.html South Sudan Experiment Headed Toward Failure http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Africa/South-Sudan-Experiment-Headed-Toward-Failure.html The World Bank, in a draft document reviewed by the independent Sudan Tribune, warns that South Sudan could collapse by its two-year anniversary because authorities in Juba were unaware of the consequences of one of its very first unilateral decisions. The South Sudanese government early this year, roughly six months into independence, expressed frustration with Khartoum's claims on revenue and halted the production of at least 75-percent of the regional oil. But with Khartoum controlling the export infrastructure, the move now seems to have backfired.…

]]> dg@oilprice.com (Daniel J. Graeber) Tue, 08 May 2012 4:21:21 GMT http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Africa/South-Sudan-Experiment-Headed-Toward-Failure.html As Yemen's Water Runs Dry, al-Qaida Runs Rampant http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/As-Yemens-Water-Runs-Dry-al-Qaida-Runs-Rampant.html We’ve talked about the internal struggle waging in Yemen to control its oil resources, the revenues from which can buy patronage for a new regime, but water is the other liquid gold informing the conflict, and as al-Qaeda steps in to wield control over a country running dry, it becomes easier to map the conflict in terms of water shortage. As a showdown with Houthi rebels ensues in the north, separatists fight government forces in the south, groups linked to al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) step up attacks and make territorial gains,…

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]]> corporate@oilprice.com (Jen Alic) Thu, 03 May 2012 23:25:14 GMT http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/As-Yemens-Water-Runs-Dry-al-Qaida-Runs-Rampant.html Will North Korea Disappear if We Ignore It? http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Asia/Will-North-Korea-Disappear-if-We-Ignore-It.html As North Korea celebrates 80 years and uses the occasion to lash out at the treacherous South with vows of a “sacred war” and to boast of its nuclear strike capability against the US, it won’t do to brush Pyongyang aside as simply irrational and unpredictable. Pyongyang is anything but irrational, and while it may be unpredictable, that only attests to the US Intelligence Community’s inability to get a handle on North Korea, which has very painstakingly and deliberately calculated every move it has made under the late Kim…

]]> corporate@oilprice.com (Jen Alic) Thu, 26 Apr 2012 22:50:45 GMT http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Asia/Will-North-Korea-Disappear-if-We-Ignore-It.html Climate Change and the Potential for Future Instability in North Africa http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Africa/Climate-Change-and-the-Potential-for-Future-Instability-in-North-Africa.html Northwest Africa is crisscrossed with climate, migration, and security challenges. From Nigeria to Niger, Algeria, and Morocco, this region has long been marked by labour migration, bringing workers from sub-Saharan Africa north to the Mediterranean coastline and Europe. To make that land journey, migrants often cross through the Sahel and Sahel-Saharan region, an area facing increasing environmental threats from the effects of climate change. The rising coastal sea level, desertification, drought, and the numerous other potential effects of climate…

]]> acienceprogress@oilprice.com (Science Progress) Mon, 23 Apr 2012 22:08:17 GMT http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Africa/Climate-Change-and-the-Potential-for-Future-Instability-in-North-Africa.html How Malaysian and French Elections could be Affected by the Submarine Scandal http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/How-Malaysian-and-French-Elections-could-be-Affected-by-the-Submarine-Scandal.html Malaysia’s submarine procurement scandal was, by mid-April 2012, spilling onto the French political scene, highlighting a range of political and strategic dilemmas which ultimately impact (and reflect) on the national security capabilities of a number of Asian states. Apart from anything else, this scandal — and a number of similar scandals — highlights the stagnation of the international defense scene; it has become bogged down in politics, corruption, and endemic bureaucratic maneuver. Significantly, the issue of the Malaysian…

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]]> gregs@oilprice.com (Gregory R. Copley) Fri, 20 Apr 2012 22:31:34 GMT http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/How-Malaysian-and-French-Elections-could-be-Affected-by-the-Submarine-Scandal.html Why the West is Supporting an Anti-Western Solution in Syria http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Intelligence-Report-Why-the-West-is-Supporting-an-Anti-Western-Solution-in-Syri.html A Jihadist, Anti-Western Agenda is Being Forced on Syria The international community has been blindly following a jihadist-driven agenda for Syria; a solution the majority of Syrians reject, but which Turkey and Qatar have been driving. It begs the question: why are analysts in Washington — or Paris or London — not digging more deeply into what is really happening, given that the solution they have endorsed is so profoundly anti-Western? The key test of the Annan plan and ceasefire to help end the widespread violence in Syria came on…

]]> yoss@oilprice.com (Yossef Bodansky) Fri, 20 Apr 2012 12:21:57 GMT http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Intelligence-Report-Why-the-West-is-Supporting-an-Anti-Western-Solution-in-Syri.html Sudan: The Oil Drums of War http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Africa/Sudan-The-Oil-Drums-of-War.html The U.S. special envoy for Sudan told reporters in January he was "very concerned" about the situation in Sudan. South Sudan and Sudan split last year under the terms of a comprehensive peace agreement that ended one of the bloodiest conflicts since World War II. The envoy, Princeton Lyman, admitted some of the outstanding issues from the CPA were "set aside" but where now "coming to the surface." This week, with South Sudanese authorities seizing oil territory in Sudan, the situation has now boiled over into war. South Sudanese President…

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]]> dg@oilprice.com (Daniel J. Graeber) Fri, 13 Apr 2012 21:33:31 GMT http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Africa/Sudan-The-Oil-Drums-of-War.html U.S. Risks Involvement in Regional Central Asian Disputes http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Asia/U.S.-Risks-Involvement-in-Regional-Central-Asian-Disputes.html The Pentagon, clearly unsettled by its proposed 2014 drawdown of the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan, has cast its net wide to retain a presence in Central Asia’s post-Soviet states. Accordingly, its new potential best buddy is Tajikistan, but the U.S. Department of Defense’s new strategy risks inserting Washington into one of post-Soviet Central Asia’s most intractable problems, energy issues between Central Asia’s former USSR republics. A crystal ball would indicate that the end result will be bitterness and all…

]]> admin@namecake.com (John Daly) Thu, 12 Apr 2012 21:56:17 GMT http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Asia/U.S.-Risks-Involvement-in-Regional-Central-Asian-Disputes.html As Mali Risks Regional Stability, No One Is Asking the Right Questions http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Africa/As-Mali-Risks-Regional-Stability-No-One-Is-Asking-the-Right-Questions.html A lot has happened in Mali in less than three weeks’ time. Renegade soldiers have declared a coup d’état; Touareg separatists have carved out their own state the size of France in the country’s north; the president has formally resigned; elections have been promised within 40 days; and a handful of Algerian diplomats have been kidnapped. All of this has happened to the surprise of Malians, Mali’s neighbors, the entire African community and Western Intelligence. The media across the board has provided us with the “news”…

]]> corporate@oilprice.com (Jen Alic) Tue, 10 Apr 2012 18:40:56 GMT http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Africa/As-Mali-Risks-Regional-Stability-No-One-Is-Asking-the-Right-Questions.html Intelligence Report: Why Prospects of an Israel Iran Conflict Remain Low http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Intelligence-Report-Why-Prospects-of-an-Israel-Iran-Conflict-Remains-Low.html Global security concerns continued, in early April 2012, to be geared around the possibility of armed conflict between Iran and Israel, an issue hedged by a range of other conflicts and issues. The actual prospect of such a conflict, however, remained extremely low, for a variety of reasons, despite the near hysteria of media, and even poorly-reasoned reporting from “professional” intelligence agencies.The ostensible cause of the potential conflict remained the nominal determination of key Western states to ensure that Iran did not…

]]> gregs@oilprice.com (Gregory R. Copley) Sun, 08 Apr 2012 14:55:55 GMT http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Intelligence-Report-Why-Prospects-of-an-Israel-Iran-Conflict-Remains-Low.html Pakistan and India to go to War over Water? http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Asia/Pakistan-and-India-to-go-to-War-over-Water.html A peaceful and stable Pakistan is integral to western efforts to pacify Afghanistan, but Islamabad’s obsessions with its giant eastern neighbor may render such issues moot.Since partition in 1947, Pakistan and India have fought four armed conflicts, in 1947, 1965, 1971 (which led to the establishment of Bangladesh, formerly East Pakistan) and the 1999 Kargil clash. With the exception of the 1971 conflict, which involved rising tensions in East Pakistan, the others have all involved issues arising from control of Kashmir. But now…

]]> admin@namecake.com (John Daly) Wed, 04 Apr 2012 22:28:17 GMT http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Asia/Pakistan-and-India-to-go-to-War-over-Water.html Syria: Assad Winning as Opposition Counts Friends http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Syria-Assad-Winning-as-Opposition-Counts-Friends.html Only a day after the Syrian regime vowed to meet a 10 April deadline to abide by an UN ceasefire resolution and had already purportedly begun to withdraw troops from populated areas, clashes have intensified between regime forces and army defectors and their opposition supporters, leaving at least a dozen people dead on 4 April. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), meaning Saudi Arabia and Qatar, advocate arming the Syrian opposition to fight the regime and for all intents and purposes escalate the conflict into a civil war. Russia warns against…

]]> corporate@oilprice.com (Jen Alic) Wed, 04 Apr 2012 22:10:44 GMT http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Syria-Assad-Winning-as-Opposition-Counts-Friends.html How Energy Independence Influences Brazilian Geopolitics http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/South-America/How-Energy-Independence-Influences-Brazilian-Geopolitics.html Brazil is a rare gem, a rising power that has put itself on the path of energy independence thanks to a combination of forward-looking energy policies and newly discovered oil reserves. But what does this actually mean for Brazilian foreign policy? Analysis Energy security is one of those rare issues that most people in the world can agree on. Energy security is the fear of cold winters that sets a place for Russia at Europe’s dinner table. It is the compulsion that might have cost the United States its global pre-eminence, and the exception…

]]> (Zachary Fillingham) Tue, 03 Apr 2012 22:35:47 GMT http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/South-America/How-Energy-Independence-Influences-Brazilian-Geopolitics.html Azerbaijan Reportedly Grants Israel "Airbase Deal" - BAD Idea http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Azerbaijan-Reportedly-Grants-Israel-Airbase-Deal-BAD-Idea.html According to a report in the British media, citing the authoritative U.S. journal “Foreign Policy,” U.S. officials have said that Israel's military may have secured access to Azeri strategic air bases that could be used in an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. If the reports are accurate, then Azerbaijan has placed virtually all of its future oil exports on the negotiating table, as its neighboring export sources, Russia and Turkey, have repeatedly stated that they oppose such an assault. Azerbaijan’s prosperity is…

]]> admin@namecake.com (John Daly) Mon, 02 Apr 2012 21:57:30 GMT http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Azerbaijan-Reportedly-Grants-Israel-Airbase-Deal-BAD-Idea.html House of Saud to Meet Yemen's Oil Needs as Sana'a Internally Combusts http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/House-of-Saud-to-Meet-Yemens-Oil-Needs-as-Sanaa-Internally-Combusts.html Saudi Arabia has pledged to provide Yemen with 100% of its domestic fuel needs for the months of April and May as the country descends into chaos which threatens to spill over the Saudi border; but the $1.2 million petroleum package from the House of Saud is likely to be hijacked by Yemen’s battling elite as the struggle for patronage spirals out of control. Yemen is perhaps Saudi Arabia’s greatest immediate concern as it has not been able to find a viable solution for containing a dangerous power vacuum in the wake of the deal that…

]]> corporate@oilprice.com (Jen Alic) Sun, 01 Apr 2012 16:39:36 GMT http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/House-of-Saud-to-Meet-Yemens-Oil-Needs-as-Sanaa-Internally-Combusts.html Treading Cautiously as Iran's Power Struggle Unfolds http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Treading-Cautiously-as-Irans-Power-Struggle-Unfolds.html The intelligence “leak” game that has intentionally provided the Obama Administration a temporary way out from under Republican and Israeli pressure to strike Iran is a fortuitous one that perhaps unintentionally recognizes the wider implications of pushing the internal power struggle in Iran to a premature and dangerous end. In recapping the events of this week that saw “intelligence leaks” to the effect that there is no need to attack Iran as there is no imminent threat of it achieving nuclear weapons capabilities and…

]]> corporate@oilprice.com (Jen Alic) Wed, 21 Mar 2012 22:51:47 GMT http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Treading-Cautiously-as-Irans-Power-Struggle-Unfolds.html