Insider Secrets

Insider Secrets

Learn how the PROs are making money from the oil and energy market.

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Geopolitics

  • Forget Oil – There is a Far More Precious Commodity at Stake

    Forget oil for once; the new cause of rising tension in the Greater Middle East (and Africa) today is between two countries that do not even share a common border.  They have no real bad history between each other, no direct links or political divergences or land or sea disputes with one another, yet the sudden appearance of tension between them could erupt in a violent conflict.  This new tension stems from a dispute over the most precious commodity in the world today, something far more precious than oil: water. This latest crisis involves Egypt and Ethiopia, two of the eleven countries…

  • China to Build Panama Canal Bypass Through Nicaragua

    One of the most extraordinary stories of the past decade largely overlooked by the U.S. media is how Central and Latin America have quietly escaped U.S. control since 9-11, as Washington focused on its Global War on Terror.GWOT diverted Washington attention long enough that progressive governments established themselves throughout the southern Western hemisphere, from Venezuela through Brazil, Paraguay and Bolivia, which were far less inclined than previous administrations to listen to advice from their giant “el Norte” neighbor.A crucial element in this process has been Central and Latin America expanding their trading opportunities with states frowned upon by Washington, from…

  • Turkey’s Erdogan: Is the Damage Fatal?

    Let’s watch Turkey’s ruling party elite hedge their bets over Prime Minister Recep Erdogan’s longevity, as protests continue into their second week. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is in a tight spot, with a 50-50 chance that Erdogan will recoup from his mismanagement of protests that have spiraled into country-wide mass anti-government demonstrations. What the AKP elite now have to decide is whether Erdogan can do enough damage control to save himself, or whether continued support of him will damage the AKP irrevocably.The problem for Erdogan—and perhaps the saving grace for the AKP—is that the protests are specifically…

  • Egypt’s Instability Triggers a New Proxy War Against Ethiopia and its Allies

    Egypt’s Morsi Government has initiated a return to covert war against Ethiopia, which controls the source of the Blue Nile, Egypt’s and Sudan’s principal source of water.  The result will almost certainly lead to an increased level of insecurity in the strategic Red Sea/Suez sea lane and in the upper Nile riparian states, such as South Sudan, with some impact on global energy markets. Certainly it promises to see greater instability in the Horn of Africa at a time when Western media portrayals hint at a return to stability in, for example, Somalia.  Significant, mounting public unrest in Egypt during…

  • TURKEY: Erdogan Fails to Regain Control

    Bottom Line: If Prime Minister Erdogan continues to mismanage a crisis in the form of 7 days running of mass anti-government protests, the highly influential Gulen Movement will surface to unseat him and reshape the country’s energy ambitions.Analysis: Mass protests that began benignly over plans to raze the last green park in Istanbul and then turned into mass anti-government riots have continued into their seventh day, with the ruling party and PM Erdogan misjudging their power and failing to get a handle on the situation. What is of most concern is the possibility that the Gulen Movement, a highly influential…

  • VENEZUELA: Lurching Towards Political Chaos and Recession

    Bottom Line: Amid two major oil deals, Venezuela is lurching towards political chaos with the state oil company’s debts rivaling those of the federal government and socio-economic and political unrest threatening to spiral out of control.Analysis: Within the last two weeks, two major foreign investors signed multi-billion dollar deals with Venezuela. On 27 May, Chevron agreed to pony up $2 billion to increase production under joint management in the Boscan field off the coast of Zulia state. China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) is finalizing an agreement to loan Venezuela $4 billion to purchase the necessary equipment to sustain and expand…

  • GREECE: How Gazprom Will Get Control of Greece’s Pipeline Potential

    Bottom Line: As Greece sells off its state-owned natural gas company (DEPA/DEFSA) under insolvency pressure, a minor Russian holding steps in as a proxy for Russian giant Gazprom. Whoever gains control, gains control over some major transit pipelines that will re-shape the pipeline game. Analysis: DEPA is Greece’s state-owned Public Gas Corporation, while DEFSA is the state-owned Gas Transmission System Operator. DESFA is fully owned by DEPA, but the two are being sold separately. DESFA is valued at about $650 million, and it operates all the country’s transmission pipelines and the entire distribution network, along with an LNG terminal. This…

  • TURKEY-TURKMENISTAN: 12 Energy Deals Solidify Cooperation

    Bottom Line: Turkey has long been the inroad into Turkmenistan’s oil and gas sector, and the recent inking of a deal between the two countries solidifies this even more. Analysis: On 30 May, Turkey and Turkmenistan signed an agreement for Turkmen gas supplies to Turkey, with Ashgabat rolling out the red carpet (and even a military parade) for Turkish President Abdullah Gul. The two countries signed a total of 12 cooperation agreements on 30 May, riding high on soaring trade volumes, which have reached $3.5 billion. Turkish companies have completed $34 billion in projects in Turkmenistan. Addressing his Turkmen audience,…

  • Has Piracy Around the Horn of Africa Gone?

    What's behind the recent decline in maritime piracy attacks off the Horn of Africa? Sonia Rothwell believes that military operations on land and at sea are starting to have the desired effect, as are more controversial measures developed by private companies.Following its peak between 2005 and 2011, maritime piracy off the Horn of Africa now appears to be abating. The efforts of 40 countries, numerous coalitions and the controversial adoption by some ships of armed guards have contributed to the gradual decrease of both successful and attempted hijackings. But this suggests a far simpler solution to the threat than is…

  • U.S. Sinks Nails in Iranian Economic Coffin

    Oil priced at around $100 per barrel means Iran for May was out around $300 million in oil revenue because of Western economic sanctions. A U.S. Treasury Department official said sanctions are taking a slice out of oil revenue for the Islamic republic after years of pressure and May exports of oil from Iran may be at record lows. Sanctions are meant to starve Iran of the finances it needs to support its nuclear research. Following a damning report from the IAEA, the country may find itself with its back against the wall unless it changes course and fast. Crude oil…

Martin tiller