Geopolitics

• Ten Possible Strategic Ramifications of the Current Egyptian Unrest

  The prospect of an imminent, uncontrolled change in the leadership of Egypt, or other political paralysis in the state, as a result of growing popular unrest which began in the country in earnest on January 25, 2011, has clear strategic ramifications, dependent on how the matter resolves itself. By January 30, 2011, the key to the transition of power in Egypt was the Army. The domestic intelligence service under the Interior Ministry had failed to anticipate, or deal with, the crisis; the foreign intelligence service, from which the new Vice-President emerged, lacks a power base. So, as the matter progressed,…

• Qatar’s Growing Influence and Economy and the Dangers That Come With It

  The small Gulf state of Qatar has translated economic assets and creative diplomacy into extraordinary global influence. But the eclipse of regional giants such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia is also a high-risk strategy “It’s nothing but a short lady in high heels”, one Arab politician described Qatar to me after it was named the 2022 host of football’s world cup. The reaction is typical, in that a mix of envy, cynicism and disparagement colours the attitudes (whether publicly or privately expressed) of Arab “big brothers” towards this tiny yet wealthy and influential Gulf state. No wonder, for Qatar boxes…

• Crisis in the Arab World: Energy, Water, Food and Justice

  The desperate act of an unemployed university graduate living in the Tunisian town of Sidi Bouzid sparked a wave of popular unrest that in January 2011 overthrew the authoritarian regime of the president, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. The self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi has been echoed in other parts of the Arab world. In Algeria, riots and demonstrations in protest against steep rises in basic foodstuffs (the price of sugar and cooking oil, for example, went up by 30% on 1 January 2011) forced the authorities to rescind the increases; the protests continue in Egypt and elsewhere, even in the…

• Turmoil in The Middle East

  The force multipliers escalating events in the Middle East are television and social networking.  People in Egypt saw what happened in Tunisia and took heart.  People in Yemen were emboldened by demonstrations in Egypt.  The net result is that the governments of Yemen and Egypt now hang in the balance. Senior US policy makers believe that Yemen's president hangs by a thread. Consider this from a NYT dispatch today: In a televised speech on Sunday night, Mr. Saleh tried to defuse calls for his ouster, denying opposition claims that his son would inherit his power — as has happened in Syria…

• 2011: Transition to a New Global Order

  Three issues will dominate international relations in 2011: the United States’s relations with Europe, the emerging powers, and various countries of the global south; the ongoing international financial crisis (particularly acute in the north Atlantic area); and violence both along acute fracture-lines (such as the Pakistan-Afghanistan and Mexico-US borders) and within various states (such as Yemen and Somalia). The powers that commanded the international stage since the 1950s -  especially the United States, Britain, and France - no longer have the ability to lead (and in the case of the now defunct USSR, no longer exist). The WikiLeaks release of…

• Oil, Gas and Poverty: What does Turkmenistan Really Have to Offer Tourists

  For a country with the world’s fourth-largest gas reserves, Turkmenistan has a predictably glitzy capital, Ashgabat. And it would stand to reason that the prized Caspian port city an hour’s flight away, at the heart of the nation’s oil and gas industry, would be just as grand. Turkmenbashi was named by and for the country’s late dictator, Saparmurat Niyazov, the self-styled “Leader of All Turkmen,” and has been chosen as the site for Turkmenistan’s stab at upscale tourism. But the only people visibly benefiting in Turkmenbashi and its environs seem to be high-placed government officials on their occasional visits. Otherwise,…

• Tax Dispute Over Fuel Supplies at Manas Could Impede the Afghanistan War Effort

  A new tax dispute over fuel supplies at a strategically important air base in Kyrgyzstan is looming. US diplomats are concerned that potential wrangling could impede the war effort in Afghanistan. The taxation issue arose again on January 14, when Kyrgyz government representatives presented US officials and executives of the Pentagon’s fuel contractor at the Manas Transit Center, Mina Corp, with a curious proposal: Pay $55 per ton of fuel in excise tax, or else volunteer to pay $100 per ton of fuel directly to the state budget. The proposal, which was made during a working group meeting, creates a…

• India’s Secret Economic Weapon in its Race With China

  The eclipse of the G7 by the G20 puts the spotlight more than ever on India and China as the economic superpowers of the future. So far, China has the lead, but India has a secret weapon that will carry it into first place by the end of the century. What exactly? Widely spoken English? That helps India's service sector, but it is not decisive. Democracy? True, democracies outperform authoritarian regimes on average. It is no coincidence that 17 of the G20 are functioning democracies, but China is hanging in there as an exception to the rule. No, the real…

• The Politics of Fear and Paranoia

  We live in a highly organized climate of fear. If security organizations depend upon fear and paranoia to sustain their existence, Wikileaks suggests using the same tools to hold them to account. Today, we live in a climate of fear. On 15 December, the US Department of Homeland Security and FBI issued an intelligence bulletin to state and local law enforcement agencies warning that terrorists could target mass gatherings at major metropolitan areas during the 2010 holiday season, although US officials said that is no specific and credible intelligence about planned terror attacks. In October, the US Department of State…

• Iranian Fuel Blockade Hurting Afghan Civilians

  Afghans are grappling with rising fuel prices and dwindling supplies in the depth of winter, while convoys of relief aid stand idle just across the border with Iran. Thousands of fuel tankers and trucks carrying compressed-gas cylinders used for cooking and heating were stranded after Iranian officials imposed a blockade on the Afghanistan-bound deliveries because they claim such supplies would help NATO forces. Following official assurances that the supplies were intended solely for use by Afghan civilians, Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad promised visiting Afghan Vice President Mohammad Qasim Fahim on December 26 that the blockade would be lifted. But days…