Geopolitics

• Nigerian Presidential Race Potentially Impacts Global Energy Market

  The conclave of Northern Nigerian elders, known as the Mallam Adamu Ciroma Committee of the Northern Political Leaders' Forum (NPLF), delivered, on November 22, 2010, its decision on the selection of a “consensus candidate” for the Nigerian Presidential elections of 2011, a decision which all four potential Northern candidates agreed to accept. The selection, however, was ultimately made along “financial lines”, supporting the candidate who agreed, apparently, to make all nine elders wealthy: former Vice-President Turaki Atiku Abubakar. See Defense & Foreign Affairs Special Analysis, November 16, 2010: Nigerian Political Situation Again Moves Toward a Watershed. The decision certainly had…

• Iran Nuclear Talks Resume in Geneva, But Chances of a Breakthrough are Minimal

  Iran and six major powers have adjourned day one of the first face-to-face talks over Tehran's suspect nuclear program in 14 months, with Iranian officials insisting they would not bow to demands to suspend uranium enrichment and Western diplomats dismissing chances of a breakthrough. Officials met in the Swiss city of Geneva a day after Iran sent out a calculatedly defiant signal by announcing it had produced its own domestically mined uranium ore, known as yellowcake, for the first time. The chief Iranian nuclear negotiator, Said Jalili, said on arrival that the success of the two-day talks "depends on the…

• Wikileaks: State Secrets or Clever Tactics

  Is the US Government Machiavellian enough to orchestrate the recent brouhaha over the so-called website WikiLeaks, is this a real embarrassment, or will it indeed be damaging as some U.S. diplomats claim? I am not one to support conspiracy theories but when you stop to analyze the content of the information that was leaked it seem that two things emerge: first, the content of the cables were not so earth shattering as to damage national security, or harm Washington’s relations with other countries. Second, upon further analysis, it would appear that the information revealed instead sends a strong message to…

• Helping Kyrgyzstan Help Itself

  ASTANA: This year’s upheavals in Kyrgyzstan were a direct result of the country’s longstanding economic stagnation and the rise of social tensions against the backdrop of an inefficient government that had lost the trust of its people.  The crisis put the country in serious danger of fragmenting and made Kyrgyzstan vulnerable to the influence of various extremist movements. At the same time, the danger of terrorist threats and increased drug trafficking from Afghanistan to Russia and Europe grew significantly. If the situation had deteriorated further and spread across the region, global energy security could have been imperilled through the disruption of…

• A Tale of Hungry Elephants

  Sometimes in the second half of the 17th century, the Mughal Empire in India was gradually reaching its zenith under the aegis of Emperor Aurangzib. There was one noble of his, named Qabil Khan. He had a very short stint in the nobility. Even then, he managed to amass twelve lakhs (over one million Indian rupees) in cash during that period of office. However, he was not the only one. Lavishness exhibited by the nobles was an accepted norm in Mughal India. According to historians, a hundred dishes were prepared for Abul Fazl, Emperor Akbar’s court historian on a daily…

• Lunch With the CIA

  Lunch with the Central Intelligence Agency is always interesting, although five gorillas built like brick shithouses staring at me intently didn’t help my digestion. Obama’s pick of Leon Panetta as the agency’s new director was controversial because he didn’t come from an intelligence background- upsetting the career spooks at Langley to no end. But the President thought a resume that included 16 years as the Democratic congressman from Monterey, California, and stints as Clinton’s Chief of Staff and OMB Director, was good enough. So when Panetta passed through town on his way home to heavenly Carmel Valley for the holidays,…

• U.S. Strengthening Old Alliances in Asia Pacific to Contain the influence of China

  While U.S. President Barack Obama was making a high-profile visit to Asia, U.S. Secretary of State; Hillary Clinton was rebuilding long lost friendships in the South Pacific by extending hands of friendship and military cooperation to Australia and New Zealand. New Zealand is very much within the U.S. “Sphere of Influence” and Clinton just confirmed it by signing the high-profile Wellington Declaration. This is the first step in the right direction towards annual security talks of the type that take place between Australia and the U.S. and which underpin the decades-old Australia, New Zealand, United States Security Treaty (ANZUS) alliance…

• 250,000 Secret U.S. Diplomatic Cables released by WikiLeaks

  WikiLeaks' release of a quarter of a million confidential diplomatic cables will embarrass Washington -- but in all probability will not have more serious policy consequences for the United States. After all, to describe Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin as an alpha male is hardly sensational information; neither is describing President Dmitry Medvedev as playing Robin to Putin's Batman. Nor for that matter is the fact that the U.S. Embassy in Bejing suspects the Chinese leadership of trying for years to hack into computers of the United States, its allies, and the Tibetan spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama. As so…

• Transitions: France, India, Iraq, Jordan, Madagascar

  France: Pres. Nicolas Sarkozy reshuffled the French Cabinet on November 14, 2010, to prepare for the 2012 Presidential Elections. He added more conservatives to the Cabinet, and 31 members were appointed. Some significant changes included the re-appointment of Prime Minister François Fillon; the appointment of Alain Juppé, former Prime Minister under Pres. Jacques Chirac, as Minister of Defense; and former Defense Minister Michèle Al- liot-Marie, who was appointed Minister of Foreign Affairs, replacing Bernard Kouchner. Both M Juppé and Mme Alliot-Marie were appointed Minister of State in conjunction with their new posts. Xavier Bertrand replaced Eric Woerth as Minister of…

• North Korea Shells South Korean Island

  South Korean President Lee Myung-bak says he is trying to prevent a broader conflict breaking out following North Korea's artillery barrage on a populated island along the two states' disputed maritime border. Lee was speaking after leading an emergency meeting of the government in an underground war room. South Korean media say Seoul has warned Pyongyang to halt its provocations or sustain a strong reaction. Today's hour long attack caused the evacuation of civilians from Yeonpyeong Island and killed two marines and injured more than a dozen other people. Dozens of buildings were burning, with dense black smoke rising above…