Geopolitics / Middle East

• Interpreting Sharia Law in Afghanistan

  Afghan President Hamid Karzai has added his voice to those condemning the Taliban-orchestrated execution by stoning of a young couple charged with adultery. The stonings in the northeastern province of Kunduz on August 15 are considered the first such executions ordered by the Taliban since their overthrow from power nine years ago. The executions, carried out in a village under Taliban control, have been widely condemned by Afghan civil society representatives, international human rights watchdogs, and prominent Muslim scholars in Afghanistan and beyond. In a statement, Karzai termed the killings an "unforgivable crime." He said "the ruling to stone the…

• Is War With Iran Imminent?

  Iran, it is believed, is on the fast track to develop nuclear weapons which Israel sees as a direct threat to not only its security, but to its very existence. The question is just how real is the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran?  Would the Islamic Republic deploy nukes against the Jewish state? In spite the rhetoric from its leadership, primarily its president, the possibility of an Iranian strike against Israel is most unlikely. Iran knows the repost will be instantaneous and devastating. Analysts who know the region well are predicting the possibility of war with Iran before the end…

• Israelis Conducting Covert Maritime Operations in Persian Gulf

  Chinese and Japanese intelligence agencies, which closely monitor events in the Persian Gulf due to the dependence of both countries on oil from the region, report that Israeli Navy commandos have recently been active in creating maritime incidents in the Gulf that could be blamed on Iran. The five incidents that have Israel under the scrutiny of the intelligence services of China and Japan, the world's second and third largest economic powers, respectively, are the "robbery" attacks on four merchant ships off Basra, Iraq on August 8 and the July 28 explosion on the Japanese supertanker MV M. Star in…

• Despite Tension Israel and Turkey Continue their Economic relations

  Israeli business executives here in Istanbul like to point out that most of the angry Turks who protested Israel’s deadly raid on a Turkish-led flotilla to Gaza this past spring do not know that their cellphones, personal computers and plasma televisions were made using parts and technology from Tel Aviv. For Menashe Carmon, chairman of the Israel Turkey Business Council, such ignorance is a blessing for Israelis and Turks. “Turks would find it very hard to boycott Israeli goods because you won’t find any in Turkish supermarkets,” Mr. Carmon said. “But most of the software Turks use in everything from…

• Iraq: The Conflict Over Power

  The current political impasse in Iraq is damaging to all parties involved. A UN-sponsored National Salvation Government may be the only way forward. The “Non-Dialogue” dialogue is still going on among the Iraqi political powerhouses in their attempt to form or rather “un-form” the government. As the election results were inconclusive in that they gave significant weight to all major stakeholders involved in the formula, forming the government in Iraq has become even more difficult as time goes by. At the time when everyone was talking about a Maliki-Allawi competition over the office of prime minister, new details surfaced only…

• Lebanese Officials Expect Phony Evidence in UN Report on Hariri Assassination

  The Wayne Madsen Report (WMR) is reporting sources in Lebanon are expecting that the UN Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) report on who was responsible for the 2005 remotely-controlled bomb assassination in Beirut of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri will contain a wealth of phony and contrived "evidence" compiled with the assistance of the CIA, Mossad, and other western intelligence agencies. It is widely expected that the STL report will blame Lebanese Hezbollah, a member of the current Lebanese government headed by Saad Hariri, the son of the slain ex-Prime Minister, for the assassination. Lebanese intelligence believes that the…

• An Uncertain Homecoming: BP’s Return To Libya Decades After Gaddafi’s Revolution

  After nearly 40 years, BP is returning to Libya amid widespread controversy about an alleged link to the Lockerbie bomber’s release and fears about a potential oil disaster in the Mediterranean Sea. Yet despite the oil giant’s enthusiasm, its future in Libya – a country boasting the largest crude oil reserves on the continent -- may end up as murky as competitors that have ventured there. Three years ago, BP signed a $900-million exploration and production deal with Libya, decades after Muammar Gaddafi’s government nationalized 100 percent of the oil company’s holdings. BP, which has not been involved in the…

• A Coup in Saudi Avoided or Iranian Disinformation?

  Did King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia narrowly avoid being overthrown by a close member of his own royal family?  That seems to be a rumor circulating around some political and intelligence circles in Washington as well as in the Middle East.  A Saudi official however denied the allegations saying it was most likely Iranian disinformation. Indeed, there have been reports ¬- all unconfirmed -¬ that Prince Bandar bin Sultan bin Abdel Aziz, a nephew of the king and former Saudi ambassador to Washington had attempted a coup and has since been under house arrest.  Other sources said Bandar was detained…

• The Enduring Middle East Strategic Framework Begins to Emerge as Iran Surges, and the US Resiles

  The lingering impact of August 3, 2010, clash on the Israeli-Lebanese border lies in the greater context of, and wider strategic dynamics in, the Middle East. These aspects were highlighted by HizbAllah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah in his speech later that day. See Defense & Foreign Affairs Special Analysis, August 4, 2010: Clash on Israel-Lebanon Border Holds Potential for Strategic Escalation. Overall, the issue dominating the overall situation in the Middle East is the reaction by the local powers to the emerging new grand strategic reality: namely, the demise of the United States as the dominant regional power. This is a…

• Clash on Israel-Lebanon Border Holds Potential for Strategic Escalation

  The August 3, 2010, armed clash along the Israeli-Lebanese border was a significant strategic incident. On Thursday, July 29, 2010, Israel notified UNIFIL that a few Israeli soldiers would be crossing the security fence in order to cut a tree and remove a few shrubs in Israeli territory but near the Blue Line (the actual border between Israel and Lebanon). This foliage blocks the view of Israeli security cameras positioned deep inside Israel. Israel also notified UNIFIL that these soldiers would be escorted by a small patrol which would stay south of the security fence. The Israeli notification was in…