Geopolitics / Middle East

• Imagination Can be a Dangerous Thing: Why Iran Must be Denied Nuclear Weapons

  In this essay I take a look at some scenarios that could arise following the successful development of the Iranian nuclear program, after which I think the reasons why so many countries are attempting to destabilise the Middle Eastern regime will be obvious. Iran and Israel are hated enemies. Certain mullahs in Tehran believe that it is their sacred duty to destroy Israel and nuclear weapons will make that all the more easier. For many years their desire has been the destruction of their neighbour but war has never fully broken out due to the complete dominance of the Israeli military. Nuclear…

• Yemen - What Next? Replay of 1979 Iranian Revolution?

  On 22 January 70 year-old Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, having ruled since 1978, left the Yemeni capital Sanaa onboard a private jet bound for who knows where, but apparently eventually the land of the brave and the home of the free. Sources close to the opposition Islamist al Tajammu al Yamani lil-Islah (Islah) Party confirmed to the Yemen Post that Saleh was seen along with many of his family members in Sanaa international airport awaiting his flight, adding, "We don't know where Saleh is heading but probably he will go to Sultanate of Oman or the U.S." The previous day however…

• Iran: The Renewable Energy Carrot .vs. The Stick of War

  As Iran proceeds ahead with its nuclear program, its tensions with the United States continue to heighten over concerns that it is secretly pursuing a nuclear weapons capability. Israelis view a nuclear?armed Iran as an existential threat and U.S. officials are rightly concerned that nuclear weapons would give Iran coercive power over Iraq and its Arab Gulf neighbours, which are critical energy suppliers to the U.S. and its allies. One of Iran’s ostensible reasons for wanting to develop a nuclear program is to transition to an alternative source of electricity for domestic consumption. This would purportedly free up oil and…

• China Economic Clout and Nuclear Expertise Invades Saudi Arabia

  Ever since the end of World War Two, the U.S. has come to regard Saudi Arabia as almost its exclusive oil producing enclave. In February 1945, after the Yalta Conference with Soviet General Secretary Iosif Stalin and British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, on his way home U.S. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt and King Ibn Saud met aboard the New Orleans-class heavy cruiser U.S.S. Quincy in the Suez Canal’s Great Bitter Lake. During the meeting, instigated by Roosevelt, he and Ibn Saud concluded a secret agreement in which the U.S. would provide Saudi Arabia military security, including military assistance, training and a…

• Afghanistan: The Pressure is Now on Central Asian Supply Route

  The Northern Distribution Network, the key re-supply route for US and NATO forces fighting in Afghanistan, is set to experience a spike in traffic due to the closure of the Pakistani-Afghan border. But it will take several weeks for the United States and NATO to work out the logistics of rerouting cargo. Islamabad closed border crossings to Afghanistan in late November in response to a NATO attack on a frontier post that left 24 Pakistani soldiers dead. The Northern Distribution Network (NDN) is already a vital link in Afghanistan’s supply chain. But to date it has not operated at maximum…

• Saudi Prince Calls for Kingdom to Acquire WMDs

  So much for peace in the Middle East. On 5 December Prince bin Turki al Faisal, speaking at the “The Gulf and the Globe” conference in the Saudi capital Riyadh  urged the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to become a powerful regional bloc by establishing a unified armed force and defense structure. While bin Turki’s call for the GCC to pool its military resources is nothing new, his idea of supporting Gulf countries acquiring weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) if Israel and Iran do not constrain their nuclear programs represents the edge of a precipitously slippery slope. Bin Turki told…

• Could War Flare Again Between Iraq and Kuwait?

  According to Iraqi Council of Representatives Oil and Energy Committee member Furat al-Sharei, the 10 oil fields that spread across the Iraqi-Kuwaiti frontier are still waiting to have a line drawn through them to delineate the border, more than eight years after a coalition led by U.S. forces toppled the regime of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. According to al-Sharei, the two countries must first collaborate in developing legislation for equitably sharing the fields before oil extraction can begin, noting, "The problem of the common fields can be resolved by developing legal mechanisms." While Iraq and Kuwait are now at peace, many of…

• Airstrike Against Iranian Nuclear Facilities Could Kill 100s of North Koreans and Russians

  As the drums for direct military intervention to derail Iran’s purported covert military nuclear weapons program beat louder in both Jerusalem and Washington, an overlooked issue is the possibility of international “collateral damage,” to use the Pentagon’s favourite euphemism for civilian casualties. On 14 November South Korea’s Chosun Ilbo stated, "Hundreds of North Korean scientists and engineers are working at about 10 nuclear and missile facilities in Iran, including Natanz, The North Koreans are apparently rotated every six months." Russian technicians also remain at Iran’s first nuclear electrical energy facility, Bushehr. So, any aerial strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities could…

• Iran and Northern Iraq - Thaw North of Baghdad?

  Iraq’s announcement last week that U.S. forces would be required to leave Iraq under terms of the Status of Forces Agreement by 31 December blindsided Washington, and aroused predictable partisan cries of Iraqi ingratitude. Since 2003 Washington has watched with growing alarm Iraq’s rapprochement with neighboring Iran, though any Middle Eastern specialist could have observed that a military intervention that overthrew a brutal but secularist dictatorship would allow the country’s repressed Shi’a majority an increased say in a new democratic regime, and the subsequent government would undoubtedly look more kindly on its Shi’a neighbors than Washington might like. Proof of…

• Iran and the Bomb: How Far Away is Iran from Producing a Nuclear Weapon

  Concerns over Iran’s nuclear capabilities are inextricably linked to the country’s ambiguous energy intentions. But experts say it would take Iran at least two years to produce a single nuclear weapon, and that a comprehensive diplomatic strategy is key to limiting the nuclear program’s reach. Iran has created policy – rooted in religion, law, and the still-fresh memory of a gruesome war with Saddam Hussein's Iraq - against nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, and cites peaceful reasons for harvesting questionable quantities of highly enriched uranium (HEU), a key component needed to produce a nuclear weapon. Iranian leaders, however, have tried…