Geopolitics / International

• Power Shifting from West to Asia and Latin America

  In Asia, it's a truism that, as Chairman Mao put it, "the wind comes from the East", at least as far as the world economy is concerned. But what was so shocking about the most recent IMF meeting in Washington was the extent to which Western leaders now openly acknowledge the same reality - not just about the present, but well into the future as well. While that recognition is positive on the analytical level, it remains unclear, as this piece points out, how they are going to deal with this new situation - both as a "group" of some…

• Russia and Turkmenistan to Talk on Natural Gas Supplies

  Russian president Dmitry Medvedev’s visit to Turkmenistan on October 22-23 is likely to focus on the future of natural gas purchases from that country. Moscow is traditionally the biggest purchaser of Turkmen gas, but reduced imports in 2009, and is likely to buy only ten billion cubic metres this year, a third of the volume envisaged in its contract. NBCentralAsia energy experts say Medvedev is unlikely to propose increasing the amount Moscow imports. Turkmenistan would like to see this happening but it does not currently make economic sense for the Russians to do so. At the same time, Russia is…

• Russias Growing Anger over Afghanistans Growing Drug Output

  Russian frustration is rising with NATO’s “incomprehensible passivity” in efforts to contain Afghanistan’s growing drugs output. It has reached a point where some politicians in Moscow are starting to call for an active Russian military presence in Central Asia. The Kremlin flashed its dissatisfaction with anti-trafficking efforts in Afghanistan on September 29, when Vitaly Churkin, Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations, lambasted the inability of US and NATO forces to curb trafficking in northern Afghanistan. He also intimated that the growing presence of Islamic militants in northern Afghanistan may be linked to the recent clashes in Tajikistan’s Rasht Valley. “Drug…

• Uzbekistan "6+3" Afghanistan Proposal Deserves Washington’s Attention

  On 14 October the Atlantic Council hosted an extraordinary event, a “Roundtable on Providing Security and Stability in Afghanistan: Uzbekistan’s View” as part of its Eurasia Discussion Series. Tashkent deployed its top diplomats to the event, including former ambassadors to the U.S. Abdulaziz Kamilov, now First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs and Sodiq Safaev, currently Chairman of the Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs. Rounding out the trio was Dr. Doniyor Kurbanov, Deputy Director of the Institute of Strategic and Interregional Studies. Their mission? To explain to Washington’s elite Uzbekistan’s “6+3” proposal for peace in Afghanistan. As Operation Enduring Freedom enters…

• Weekly Geopolitical Summary, 14 October 2010

  In this week’s issue: •Head of Turkmengaz Fired and Replaced with Deputy•CYBERCOM to Go Operational This Month•Govt Takes over Hungarian Plant after Deadly Toxic Spill•French Transport and Oil Industry Strikes Risks Radicalization•Bolivia to Start Lithium Production in October•ISAF’s Torkham AfPak Border Crossing Reopened•Iran’s President Visits Lebanon in Clear Attempt to Boost Hezbollah Head of Turkmengaz Fired and Replaced with Deputy Local media in the Turkmen capital of Ashgabat reported on 8 October that Turkmenistan’s President Gurbangulu Berdimuhammedov fired the head of the state-run Turkmengaz for mismanagement (specifically for “serious miscalculations”), and replaced him with Dovlet Mommayev, who until now had…

• US and Kyrgyzstan Wrangling Over Fuel Supply Offer for Access to Manas

  As talks to shape Kyrgyzstan’s next government get underway, the United States has fashioned a compromise fuel-supply arrangement that US officials hope will ensure American and NATO access to the Manas transit center outside Bishkek for at least two more years. The fuel supply arrangement at Manas has been the subject of US-Kyrgyz wrangling in recent months. Kyrgyz officials were pushing for the creation of a Kyrgyz-Russian joint venture to act as the sole fuel supplier. The Pentagon, meanwhile, remained committed to a competitive tender process. The supply issue reportedly was among the topics discussed during a September 24 meeting…

• Russia Makes Major Headway with South Stream Pipeline

  Russia’s South Stream pipeline plans have increased momentum, netting formal agreements in the Balkans, most recently with Bosnia’s Serb-dominated entity of Republika Srpska and Macedonia. The president of Bosnia’s Republika Srpska entity, Milorad Dodik, and Russian Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko signed an agreement on 15 September in Moscow formally expressing interest in the construction of a branch of the South Stream pipeline through Republika Srpska. If a feasibility study carried out by Russia’s state-owned gas giant Gazprom over the next couple of months proves positive, Republika Srpska would build a 480-kilometer branch of the South Stream pipeline through northern Bosnia,…

• US Drones Kill Five German Nationals, Amid Europe-Wide Terror Alert

  Five to eight German nationals were killed on 5 October in a CIA drone strike in Pakistan’s tribal region bordering Afghanistan. The strikes were apparently part of a stepped-up CIA campaign said to be targeting credible threats of attacks on Europe by al-Qaeda. The strikes coincide with the US issuance of a Europe-wide terror alert said to be linked to intelligence that came from an Afghan-born German militant. The German nationals killed were reportedly of Arab and Pakistani origin. Washington reportedly has given Germany precise information on potential terrorist targets, including the central railway station and the television tower, as…

• UK Diplomats Targeted in Yemen Attack

  On 6 October, the British deputy ambassador and four other embassy personnel were targeted in a rocket-propelled grenade attack in the capital Sana’a. One of the embassy personnel was slightly injured from shrapnel as were two civilian bystanders. Al-Qaida is being blamed for the attack. It was the second attack on British diplomats in Yemen this year. In April, militants targeted British Ambassador Tim Torlot in a suicide bombing that injured three bystanders. British forces have a fairly high profile in Yemen, playing a key role in economic and political development. Ambassador Torlot, targeted in April’s assassination attempt, is due…

• Pakistan’s Continuing Border Blockade Exposes the Deep Rift Between Islamabad and Washington

  The line of container trucks and fuel tankers waiting to cross into Afghanistan grows longer by the day at the Torkham border crossing, as Pakistan's partial blockade of NATO supply lines stretches into a sixth day. Nearly 80 percent of nonlethal supplies for the 150,000 NATO troops in Afghanistan travel through Pakistan. They are first shipped to Pakistan's southern seaport of Karachi, and then most are hauled by truck into Afghanistan via Torkham. A smaller crossing point at Chaman has remained open. The current interruption of supply lines appears to have official backing. And since the closure began on October…