Geopolitics / International

• The U.S. Turns its Back on Europe, Allowing Russia and China to Approach

  Europe is at a pivotal point. Or, rather, it is at a point where its structural transformation can no longer be ignored. Events in Europe have finally led us to the dénouement of the 20th Century. It may presage a new Europe tied more firmly into the Eurasian heartland than old Europe. It is the end — ’though not without economic, social, and political pain — of the 20th Century form of Atlanticism. Similarly, the United States and much of the West is at a pivotal point, except that — by almost all public reaction — this reality can be,…

• How Malaysian and French Elections could be Affected by the Submarine Scandal

  Malaysia’s submarine procurement scandal was, by mid-April 2012, spilling onto the French political scene, highlighting a range of political and strategic dilemmas which ultimately impact (and reflect) on the national security capabilities of a number of Asian states. Apart from anything else, this scandal — and a number of similar scandals — highlights the stagnation of the international defense scene; it has become bogged down in politics, corruption, and endemic bureaucratic maneuver. Significantly, the issue of the Malaysian submarine scandal had become a factor in the French Presidential elections of April 22 and May 6, 2012, and the Malaysian general…

• 5 Interesting Revelations from the Stratfor Memos

  Wikileaks is publishing internal memos of the Stratfor security analysis firm. A few tidbits have emerged in these very early days, to wit: 1. Up to 12 Pakistani active-duty and retired officers from the Inter-Services Intelligence agency knew that Osama Bin Laden was in Abbottabad and were in regular contact with him. The Pakistani chief of staff is denying the report. 2. Dow Chemicals hired Stratfor to spy on activists in Agra who continue to protest over the Bhopal environmental disaster that blinded many workers and destroyed their health. I.e., Stratfor was not just doing analysis but was involved in…

• Falklands Flare Up - Could a New Oil Find Re-Ignite an Old Conflict?

  The Falkland Islands, a British windswept archipelago in the southern Atlantic off the coast of Argentina, last had its moment in the media spotlight three decades ago, when the two nations fought a brief but vicious conflict after Buenos Aires invaded the islands, providing a PR boost to Argentina’s ruling junta. But, Argentina lost, and the 11-week conflict claimed more than 900 lives, leaving Britain in control of the islands. UK analytical firm Edison Investment Research is now reporting that the Falklands’ oil industry could potentially be worth $180 billion in royalties and taxes, news that has reignited the smoldering diplomatic dispute…

• Natural Resource Depletion and the Changing Geopolitical Landscape

  From competition among hunter-gatherers for wild game to imperialist wars over precious minerals, resource wars have been fought throughout history; today, however, the competition appears set to enter a new—and perhaps unprecedented—phase. As natural resources deplete, and as the Earth’s climate becomes less stable, the world’s nations will likely compete ever more desperately for access to fossil fuels, minerals, agricultural land, and water. Nations need increasing amounts of energy and raw materials to produce economic growth, but the costs of supplying new increments of energy and materials are burgeoning. In many cases, lower-quality resources with high extraction costs are all that…

• The Hemispheric Implications of Hugo Chavez's Illness

  The recent dramatic pronouncement that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez underwent cancer treatment in Cuba reverberated far beyond Venezuela, depressing his allies and elating his enemies. While the leader of his self-proclaimed "Bolivarian revolution" is second only to his good buddy Fidel Castro in Washington's black book, the fact remains that Chavez has discreetly deployed Venezuela's vast oil and cash reserves to assist the struggling economies of a number of his Central American neighbors, which has earned him deep gratitude. Ever the showman on alert for any opportunity to tweak Uncle Sam's snout, in March 2006 in the aftermath of Hurricane…

• Pakistan to Tax NATO Transit Supplies?

  Consider – every single drop of fuel used by the NATO-led International Security Assistance Forces, largely composed of 90,000 U.S. military troops, must be brought into Afghanistan from outside the country. But the ISAF troops aren’t the only mouths to feed in Afghanistan, as in 2010 the Pentagon's Central Command put the number of contractors for the U.S. military at 107,000. For the last two months, not a drop of fuel, munitions or food has been delivered through Pakistan, as following a 26 November NATO aerial assault on two border posts in Mohmand Agency in Pakistan’s turbulent NorthWest Frontier Province that killed…

• Obama Administration Finds Few Asian Takers for Oil Sanctions Against Iran

  U.S. President Barack Obama recently signed a law imposing more sanctions on Iran's exports to punish Iran over its civilian nuclear uranium enrichment program, which Tehran insists is completely peaceful and allowable under IAEA regulations, but which Washington and Tel Aviv portray as masking a covert attempt to develop nuclear weapons.  Under the legislation, restrictions have been imposed on Iran's central bank with the objective of stifling Iranian oil exports, and the European Union has also hinted that more economic sanctions will be imposed on Iran, which will include a boycott of Iranian oil. The law bans those dealing with…

• Ahmedinejad Visits Latin America, Washington Implores and Seethes

  At the best of times, the U.S. government is regarded as somewhat out of touch with what’s happening in the American “heartland,” much less the world at large, so much so that the phrase “inside the Beltway” was coined to define the syndrome. But every now and again, an incident occurs that so perfectly encapsulates Washington’s self-absorbed navel gazing that little further comment is needed. On 9 January U.S. State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland provided such a “Kodak moment” to the Washington press corps. The object of her concern? Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad’s visit to Latin America, where he is touring Venezuela, Cuba,…

• Eight Strategic Factors to Consider in 2012

  Rarely in the past six decades has global context counted for as much in strategic forecasting — trend analysis — as it does at the dawn of 2012. Reliance on stove-piped analysis of “strategic sectors” — such as economic and financial issues, security issues, politics, geopolitics, resources and energy, sociology and religion, and so on — will produce skewed and unreliable estimates, and will tend to favor linear extrapolations of recent experience. A study of broad contextual factors, including an expanded view of history, will show how cycles and confluences of trends potentially play a greater disruptive role than at…