Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict
Turkey, Game is Up
You should be worried about Turkey. Two suicide attacks—one perpetrated by the PKK and one by ISIS—demonstrate why you should be worried, if you weren’t already a believer. We spent a lot of time already detailing the dangerous double game Turkey is playing. Now we see the results, and we expect more attacks in Turkey on both fronts.
Earlier this week, ISIS struck in Istanbul—right at the heart—targeting a popular tourist area and killing 10 German tourists. Two days later, a truck bomb courtesy of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) struck at a police state in the southeast, followed by an attack with rocket launchers and a shootout that left six people dead, including civilians.
Turkey has allegedly responded by hitting back ISIS and, as it claims, neutralizing some 200 fighters, which we cannot confirm. But it’s too little too late. And Erdogan is responsible, and will be held responsible by that large part of the Turkish public that he has polarized against him.
Of course, Russia and Turkey continue to trade barbs—even over the Istanbul attack, with Moscow calling Erdogan out for creating a haven for Sunni terrorists, and Turkish government-run media going as far as to blame Russia—and by association, Iran--for the Istanbul attack, and arresting three Russians. The idea that ISIS would clear a path for the return of the Ottoman Empire in the…
Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict
Turkey, Game is Up
You should be worried about Turkey. Two suicide attacks—one perpetrated by the PKK and one by ISIS—demonstrate why you should be worried, if you weren’t already a believer. We spent a lot of time already detailing the dangerous double game Turkey is playing. Now we see the results, and we expect more attacks in Turkey on both fronts.
Earlier this week, ISIS struck in Istanbul—right at the heart—targeting a popular tourist area and killing 10 German tourists. Two days later, a truck bomb courtesy of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) struck at a police state in the southeast, followed by an attack with rocket launchers and a shootout that left six people dead, including civilians.
Turkey has allegedly responded by hitting back ISIS and, as it claims, neutralizing some 200 fighters, which we cannot confirm. But it’s too little too late. And Erdogan is responsible, and will be held responsible by that large part of the Turkish public that he has polarized against him.
Of course, Russia and Turkey continue to trade barbs—even over the Istanbul attack, with Moscow calling Erdogan out for creating a haven for Sunni terrorists, and Turkish government-run media going as far as to blame Russia—and by association, Iran--for the Istanbul attack, and arresting three Russians. The idea that ISIS would clear a path for the return of the Ottoman Empire in the region was perhaps a bit hastily concocted—unless that path lies through Istanbul.
ISIS Hits in Indonesia
On 13 January, seven people were killed by suicide bombers and gunmen in Jakarta, Indonesia, in an attacked being blamed on ISIS. Five of the seven killed were the attackers themselves. Twenty other people were injured. The attack—which was only subdued after a grueling three hours—took place near a Starbucks. Two attackers were captured alive.
Iran and the Cat-and-Mouse Nuclear Game
As we get ever closer to the possibility of sealing the nuclear standoff with Iran and lifting sanctions, the tit-for-tat continues as Saudi Arabia watches nervously and helplessly from the sidelines. We are said to be only days away from closing a nuclear deal with Iran. Tehran was happy to test its new ‘relationship’ with Washington by detaining some US sailors who had strayed into Iranian waters. They released the sailors shortly afterwards and then scored a bit of a PR victory by airing a video of one of the sailors apologizing. That was to make things clear—especially for the Saudis.
Deals, Mergers & Acquisitions
• Sweden’s Nynas AB has completed its takeover of Shell’s former Harburg refining assets in Hamburg, Germany. Nynas initially assumed operations of the refinery’s base oil manufacturing plant and crude distillation unit in 2014. It will now operate the facility as a specialty lubricants refinery, producing as much as 330,000 tons per year of specialty oils and bitumen for sale to Europe. This represents a 40 percent increase in the company's supply capability of naphthenic specialty oils.
• Canadian-owned Africa Oil Corporation—one of the darlings of Kenya and the partner of Tullow in the game-changing Turkana exploration fields—has won regulatory approval to sell half of its stake in three Kenyan blocks to Maersk Oil & Gas. Under the sale agreement, Africa Oil will transfer half of its interest in blocks 10BB, 13T and 10BA in Kenya and the Rift basin and South Omo blocks in Ethiopia. The companies made the first oil discovery on block 10BB in March 2012 and significant additional discoveries have been made on these three blocks since then. This is prime oil acreage.
• Texas-based and Mexico-focused Fluor Corp has been awarded a contract tied to a $1 billion expansion project to rebuild a large part of the Madero Refinery. The project, scheduled to be completed in early 2018, includes detailed engineering, procurement, construction, commissioning and start-up services for two 25,000 bpd diesel hydrodesulfurization trains and associated facilities. The project is part of Mexican state-run Pemex’s clean fuels program and is designed to increase Mexico’s production of ultra-low sulfur diesel in accordance with applicable environmental standards.
Discovery & Development
• Italian oil giant Eni has started deepwater production from the Mpungi field on Block 15/06, offshore Angola. They are expected to ramp up production to 100,000 b/d during the first quarter of this year. Eni operates the Mpungi field with a 36.84% stake. Other joint venture partners are Sonangol Pesquisa e Producao (36.84 percent) and SSI Fifteen Ltd. (26.32 percent). This is all part of the West Hub Development Project, which includes the Sangos, Cinguvu, Mpungi, Mpungi North, Ochigufu and Vandumbu fields in a water depth ranging from 1,000 m to 1,500 meters. The wells are clustered and connected to the N’Goma FPSO, which has a treatment capacity of 100,000 boed.
• Falklands oil and gas explorer Rockhopper has seen its shares jump 11 percent after announced the likelihood of another development phase in the North Falkland basin. Pre-drill estimates had put the quantity of oil in the area in the region of 500 million barrels. Rockhopper has previously claimed that the North Falkland basin could contain up to one billion barrels of oil. The company owns 24 percent of the Isobel Deep license. It will own 64 percent after the closure of its merger with rival company Falkland Oil & Gas at the end of January. The remaining 36 percent is owned by Premier Oil.
• ConocoPhillips and partners have launched the first shipment of LNG from their Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG) facility on Curtis Island. Construction of the facility began in 2011. The facility has two production units, each with a capacity of about 4.5 million tons of LNG per year. ConocoPhillips said that construction of the second production unit is nearing completion, with first LNG expected by the end of this year. Conoco owns a 37.5 percent stake in the project, along with Australia’s Origin Energy, which owns an equal stake. China’s Sinopec owns the remaining 25 percent.
Regulatory Updates
• California lawmakers are pursuing stronger regulations designed to avoid natural gas storage leaks with a package of bills that will increase inspections and safety requirements for natural gas infrastructure. It also calls for changes to the emergency management of methane leaks; sets emissions reduction targets for short-lived greenhouse gases, including methane; and puts an immediate moratorium on gas being put in any of the wells located at the Aliso Canyon Storage Facility. The older natural gas wells which are operated by Southern California Gas in Aliso Canyon would have to be closed down until deemed safe by officials.
• 10 anti-fracking protesters have been arrested in northern England near the site of planned exploratory work by IGas in May. Protesters also converged on this site two years ago in an attempt to prevent IGas from evaluating the area. They were only evicted by court order In November last year. The planning permission for IGas to conduct tests at the location expires on in late May and the protesters had hoped to stop the company from accessing the site until this date.
• A hydraulic fracturing operation near Fox Creek in Alberta, Canada, has been shut down after magnitude 4.8 earthquake in the area. The Alberta Energy Regulator ordered the shutdown of the Repsol Oil and Gas site 35 kilometers north of Fox Creek. Repsol Oil and Gas will not be able to resume operations until the regulator has approved its mitigation plans. According to the regulations, the energy regulator automatically shuts down a fracking site when an earthquake hits a magnitude of 4.0 or higher in the area in which a company is operating, even though in this case it is not determined whether the quake is related to fracking.
