Geopolitics / Asia

• The ROC Navy Faces a Critical Watershed as the East Asian Strategic Balance Changes

  New strategic brinkmanship by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK); a now-clear determination by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to “more aggressively assert its territorial claims in regional waters”; the near-collapse of Japanese strategic cohesion during 2010; and the increasing signs of US political caution in North-East Asia, all point to a period of strategic concern for the Republic of China, particularly in its maritime responsibilities. What is of particular concern is that the casus belli — the legitimate cause and act of war — thrown down by the DPRK with the March 26, 2010, sinking of the…

• Power Struggles in North Korea

  While dramatic, the torpedoing of a Republic of Korea navy corvette in late March was not unexpected and it may have signalled the rise of Kim Jong-Il's youngest son, Earlier this year, South Korea’s military intelligence warned of the threat of human-torpedo attacks from the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). They conjectured that Pyongyang was planning to avenge its defeat in a skirmish between the North and South Korean navies along the disputed maritime border, known as the Northern Limit Line, in November last year. Revenge may very well be part of the North’s motive for the latest attack.…

• Korean War Games: The Sinking of the Cheonan

  The torpedo fired by a North Korean (DPRK) Yeon-O-class submarine at the ROK Navy Po Hang-class corvette, ROKS Cheonan on the night of March 26, 2010, highlighted the failure of US Pres. Barack Obama’s appeasement policy toward the DPRK. In early 2010, Pyongyang was adamant on shielding the deteriorating health of Kim Jong-Il in the midst of the tortuous succession of Kim Jong-Un. Moreover, Pyongyang resolved to protect the transfer of power between generations at KPA (Korean People’s Army) High Command from Western pressure and temptations. Hence, it became imperative for Pyongyang to launch a provocation which would both put…

• Kyrgyzstan at the Cross-Roads

  Not only should Kyrgyzstan's future after the April ousting of the government be a central focus, but the future of the other 'stans' as well When riots broke out in Petrograd, it was March 8, 1917. The subalterns clashed with Tsar’s infantrymen. In the process, 40 people were killed. But any ‘revolution’ can claim a resounding success and more to be embedded in the annals of History, if and only if the civilians and the army act in unison. And that’s what happened on that day in St. Petersburg. The rest was simply obvious. The Tsar had to abdicate the…

• Is North Korea on the Verge of Collapse?

  Despite the posturing of his regime, there are signs that Kim Jong-Il's hold on North Korea may be slipping and international community must be ready. North Korean leader Kim Jong-il is considered an international pariah in most nations, but he was welcomed with open arms in China May 3-7.  The visit underscored North Korea’s isolation: Kim’s last foreign visit in 2006 was also to China. Despite approving tough United Nations sanctions after Pyongyang’s second nuclear test, Beijing continues to provide energy and food assistance to the North that remains indispensible for the regime’s survival. Yet, even with China’s help, there…

• Revolution in Central Asia: Who's Next?

  On April 7, 2010 the President of Kyrgyzstan Kurmanbek Bakiyev fled the capital city of Bishkek that was under a state of emergency after antigovernment protesters started clashing with security forces following incidents that started in the Northern city of Talas, close to the Kazakhstan border.  By the end of April 7, Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty was reporting 40 dead and 400 wounded, numbers that have over doubled since. In this context, one can only wonder which country in Central Asia could be next, if any, and which Central Asian leader could find himself out of a job and…

• Google's Decision Highlights the Dangers of Doing Business in China

  The ramifications of Google's decision to leave China are deep: China's leadership, be careful what you wish for. I have been a student of China for 40 years. Alas, no, I did not learn Mandarin. When I started reading about China in 1969, and taking university courses on its culture and history in 1972, the Cultural Revolution was in full swing. The People's Republic was locked down; other than a trickle of black-market trading with Hong Kong, nobody was allowed in or out. No young person today, Chinese or American, can even imagine conditions in that distant, bleak time. In…

• Southeast Asia Becoming China's Trading Partner of Choice

  Some good research from China Knowledge this week. About how southeast Asia is becoming China's trading partner of choice. China's trade with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations has grown from just $8 billion in 1991 to $2.1 trillion in 2009. The ASEAN block is now China's fourth largest trading partner after powerhouses America, the E.U. and Japan. ASEAN trade accounts for 10% of China's total import and export value. Here's the really staggering figure. Monthly growth in foreign trade between China and the ASEAN countries is running over 60%. Compare that with the other world blocks, where China's trade…

• China's Ambitions Reshaping South Asia as it Surges into India's Backyard

  It’s a truism that the 21st century future of not just Asia, but the entire world, will be significantly determined by the relationship between the globe’s two fastest-growing large economies, China and India. As most observers know, there have long been kinks in the political military relationship between the two countries, most notably their direct armed confrontation in 1962. This was generally seen as a military victory for China, and provoked a thoroughgoing rejection of the generally pacifist policy of India’s founding Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru. Indeed, this resulted in a significant militarization of India’s foreign policy throughout the 1960s…

• The US-PRC Strategic Divide Begins

  The simmering difficulties in the US strategic relationship with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) were, by the beginning of 2010, ready to emerge despite the attempts of the US Administration of Pres. Barack Obama to show a pattern of deference to Beijing. But the internal US economic policies, leading to the de facto devaluation of the US dollar, seemed, if anything, a deliberate move to devalue the worth of the PRC’s massive investments in US dollar instruments. All that was needed to cause Beijing to vent its frustrations with the US — quite apart from major differences over the…