Geopolitics / Africa

• Nigeria may be Next OPEC Member to Fall

  The wealthiest man in Africa said he's secured billions of dollars in loans to help kick start the refinery business in Nigeria. OPEC-member Nigeria is forced to import most of its petroleum products because of aging infrastructure. Crude oil production in Nigeria has suffered in recent years because of militant campaigns and sabotage in the Niger Delta region. Last month, the rebel Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta said it was launching a campaign to save Christianity in Nigeria. With militant group Boko Haram seeking to establish an Islamic state in a country divided along religious lines, poorly…

• GHANA-COTE D’IVOIRE: New Find, Old Maritime Dispute

  Bottom Line: A new discovery by France’s Total SA (TOT) just inside territorial waters of Cote d’Ivoire will either exacerbate or speed up a resolution for a maritime boundary dispute between Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire.Analysis: On 25 April, Total discovered oil in the Ivoire-1X exploration well, encountering 28 meters of net oil pay in 100 meters of Cretaceous reservoirs. The find is an extension of Total’s into the Tano Basin, in Ghana’s Jubilee fields. Effectively, now we know that Total’s Block CI-100 in Cote d’Ivoire has reserves that run into the Ghana fields. This was the first well drilling in…

• KENYA: Oil Production 6-7 Years Away

  Bottom Line: Close to proving commercial viability of its major finds since last year, a new report by the IMF suggests that Kenya will start producing in 6-7 years. Analysis: The IMF has already classified Kenya’s Turkana finds as “commercial”, noting the May 2012 discoveries by Tullow Oil in Kenya’s Tertiary Rift. This is a bit of a misnomer, but it’s close. In April, Tullow said it had achieved close to commercial quantities of oil in its Twiga South-1 well. In Tullow’s Ngamia-1 well in Block 10BB, the company has now completed the first of six drill stem tests, but…

• SOUTH SUDAN: More Good News for Oil Production

  Bottom Line: Following a long-awaited agreement with Sudan that has South Sudan ready to continue oil production, other developments bode well for South Sudan output, including the integration of rebel groups into the army and promising talks with Sudan that could resolve a dispute over ownership of assets belonging to former state oil company Sudapet.  Analysis: As of last week, some 3,000 rebels of the South Sudan Liberation Movement (SSLM) surrendered and agreed to an amnesty deal that would integrate them into the South Sudan army, heralding an end to a long-running insurgency that has continued to plague oil production…

• Kenya Aspires to be East Africa Hydrocarbon Transit Hub

  Kenya is moving forward incrementally with its massive $24 billion regional infrastructure project, the Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transit Corridor (LAPSSET), awarding a key tender to a Chinese company.In early April, a consortium led by China Communications Construction Company won the tender to build the first three berths at Kenya’s Lamu Port—the first step towards an overall plan that will link South Sudan and Ethiopia—both landlocked—to the Indian Ocean port and create the infrastructure necessary to bring East African hydrocarbons to international markets.This is the second major tender for China Communications Construction Company, whose China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC) paid…

• Amid Deteriorating Security, Libya Seeks Higher OPEC Quota

  A day after Libya announced it would seek to increase its OPEC oil output quota once production reaches 1.7 billion barrels per day, an attack on the French Embassy recalled the dismal security reality in the country. On Tuesday, a car bomb exploded outside the French Embassy in Tripoli, in the upscale neighborhood of al-Andalus, wounding three and setting the building on fire. The explosion took place in the early morning hours before staff arrived at the facility.  This is the second major attack on a Western diplomatic facility since September 2012, when the US ambassador and three others were…

• Libya's Security Should Mirror Oil Ambitions

  A U.S. report on the 2012 attacks in Benghazi highlighted longstanding concerns about the threat level in Libya. The interim report from the House of Representatives followed an attack this week that left parts of the French Embassy in Tripoli destroyed by a car bombing. Last year's attack on the U.S. consultate in Benghazi left U.S. Ambassador to Libya Chris Stevens and three of his staff members dead. Libya has struggled with post-conflict stability and reconstruction tied to its oil sector. The government there said this week it wanted to increase oil production, echoing sentiments about offshore natural gas exploration…

• YEMEN: Chaotic Venue Offers Up New Exploration Tenders

  Bottom Line: Yemen is offering up new oil exploration licenses citing a great interest by foreign oil companies, but the truth is that this venue presents THE HIGHEST political risk of any venue anywhere in the world.  Analysis: Bidding ends on 15 May and the licenses up for grabs are in the al-Sabaateen Basin, al-Rub al-Khali Basin and the Aden-Abyan Basin, according to the country’s Oil Ministry. Some of the sectors included have never been explored. There are 15 blocks (10 offshore and 5 onshore) up for auction and 20 April is the deadline for letters of intent. Earlier in…

• Ghana Oil Boom Raises Piracy Specter

  Recent significant offshore oil discoveries in Ghana will catapult the nation into Africa’s major producers club, but it will also be a boon for piracy on the high seas, which has more recently expanded its reach to include Ghana’s coastal waters. Ghana has gone from producing no oil in 2010 to become a major producer by the end of 2012. Over the past three years, there have been 13 discoveries in Ghana, and a key field is nearly maximum production levels, with new projects ready to come on line. As of 2012, Ghana’s proven reserves were at about 660 million…

• Egypt Lacks Oil and Sense of Humor

  Egypt’s economy is in rather bad shape; practically in a shambles. Unemployment is officially placed at 13 percent, though the reality is certainly much higher. Inflation has almost doubled since November and the country’s ageing infrastructure continues to suffer from lack of resources. Buildings in parts of Cairo often crumble and collapse, killing their occupants due to lack of proper building codes.Tourism, one of Egypt’s largest sources of hard currency revenue has dropped about $4 billion per year. An unprecedented surge in crowds attacking and molesting women continues to worry many, especially women who feel at risk every time they…