Geopolitics / Africa

• South Sudan Experiment Headed Toward Failure

  The World Bank, in a draft document reviewed by the independent Sudan Tribune, warns that South Sudan could collapse by its two-year anniversary because authorities in Juba were unaware of the consequences of one of its very first unilateral decisions. The South Sudanese government early this year, roughly six months into independence, expressed frustration with Khartoum's claims on revenue and halted the production of at least 75-percent of the regional oil. But with Khartoum controlling the export infrastructure, the move now seems to have backfired. Either South Sudan was unprepared politically for independence or it lacked appropriate guidance to manage…

• Climate Change and the Potential for Future Instability in North Africa

  Northwest Africa is crisscrossed with climate, migration, and security challenges. From Nigeria to Niger, Algeria, and Morocco, this region has long been marked by labour migration, bringing workers from sub-Saharan Africa north to the Mediterranean coastline and Europe. To make that land journey, migrants often cross through the Sahel and Sahel-Saharan region, an area facing increasing environmental threats from the effects of climate change. The rising coastal sea level, desertification, drought, and the numerous other potential effects of climate change have the potential to increase the numbers of migrants and make these routes more hazardous in the future. Added to…

• Sudan: The Oil Drums of War

  The U.S. special envoy for Sudan told reporters in January he was "very concerned" about the situation in Sudan. South Sudan and Sudan split last year under the terms of a comprehensive peace agreement that ended one of the bloodiest conflicts since World War II. The envoy, Princeton Lyman, admitted some of the outstanding issues from the CPA were "set aside" but where now "coming to the surface." This week, with South Sudanese authorities seizing oil territory in Sudan, the situation has now boiled over into war. South Sudanese President Salva Kiir said this week that, as the sovereign leader, he's…

• As Mali Risks Regional Stability, No One Is Asking the Right Questions

  A lot has happened in Mali in less than three weeks’ time. Renegade soldiers have declared a coup d’état; Touareg separatists have carved out their own state the size of France in the country’s north; the president has formally resigned; elections have been promised within 40 days; and a handful of Algerian diplomats have been kidnapped. All of this has happened to the surprise of Malians, Mali’s neighbors, the entire African community and Western Intelligence. The media across the board has provided us with the “news” of these events, but nothing more. There is an unusual dearth of analysis. More…

• The Vital Strategic Debate: Who - in the West - Lost Africa?

  The debate in the West over “who lost China” resonated in 1949 as the Nationalist forces of Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek began their withdrawal to Taiwan from the Chinese mainland, and Mao’s forces — who had allowed Chiang’s Kuomintang forces to bleed dry in the war against Japan — consolidated control of the bulk of the coun-try. Now, of equal importance, is the strategic debate which should be held: who, in the West, lost Africa? Western media focuses on the drama of the Middle East, which, for the US, is becoming less significant as a source of oil and gas. In…

• As the Syrian Crisis Deepens Will Russia Step in Before the UN?

  The events of the past five days in Syria may be a game changer, both domestically and internationally. Last Thursday, opposition forces said, 100 people were killed. Massacres were alleged in two towns. The daily death toll has been rising. On yesterday, Monday, AFP reported another 29 persons killed, including 23 civilians and 6 members of the security forces. Troops moved into the rebel-held town of Rankus north of Damascus, after besieging and shelling it for days. Rebels blew up a gas pipeline. Rebel troops, made up of deserters, ambushed a minivan carrying 6 regime military personnel on their way…

• Can South Sudan Ever Escape from Violence and Chaos?

  There’s bad news and then there’s South Sudan, the world’s newest state. Less than six months after peacefully seceding from Sudan in the wake of an internally supervised plebiscite, South Sudan, potentially one of Africa’s richest petro-states, is descending into rising tribal violence.  The interethnic clashes have killed more than 3,000 and displaced thousands in South Sudan’s Jonglei State, with the UN reporting that tens of thousands of people displaced by the violence are in urgent need of food, water, health care and shelter. But not to worry, Washington is now engaged, sending… Food? Water? Health care? Shelter? No, on 10 January the Pentagon said that…

• China's Oil Diplomacy a First

  China’s diplomatic efforts have traditionally been modes in the extreme, supporting unilateral engagement to solve thorny issues. No more. In a first, Beijing is inserting itself into resolving a festering diplomatic issue involving two countries at economic and political loggerheads. The unitary issue? Well, energy exports, of course – specifically, oil. Boldly going where other nations fear to tread, in a diplomatic first, Beijing is attempting to mediate between Sudan and the state carved out last July from its southern provinces, South Sudan. Earlier this month China's Foreign Ministry publicly asked Sudan and South Sudan to resolve their oil transit issues through "friendly consultations." South Sudan's Minister…

• Sudan's Never-Ending Agony

  On 9 July, the world’s newest nation emerged from the state of Sudan, when South Sudan achieved formal independence. Five months later, the new nation’s fragility is obvious to all, as aircraft dispatched by Khartoum's Sudan Armed Forces have bombed targets in South Sudan. The planes targeted Yida, which currently houses more than 23,000 registered refugees. The development continues the bloody history of Sudan, quite aside from the ongoing tragedy of Darfur. South Sudan’s independence in July resulted from a 2005 peace deal that ended a half a century of civil war which left two million dead and followed last…

• Libyan Rebels Triumph - So, Apparently, Does Islam

  One of the most popular groups of the late 1960s, Country Joe and the Fish, had a scathing antiwar song about Vietnam, the “I feel Like I’m Fixing to Die Rag,” whose pungent chorus ran, “and its one, two three, what are we fighting for?” No doubt it’s being piped throughout NATO headquarters in Brussels, as the answer becomes increasingly clear. Libya's interim leader, chairman of the National Transitional Council Mustafa Abdel Jalil, in his first public appearance in the Libyan capital Tripoli in front of 10,000 people told his audience, “We seek a state of law, prosperity and one where…