/ International

• Natural Resource Depletion and the Changing Geopolitical Landscape

  From competition among hunter-gatherers for wild game to imperialist wars over precious minerals, resource wars have been fought throughout history; today, however, the competition appears set to enter a new—and perhaps unprecedented—phase. As natural resources deplete, and as the Earth’s climate becomes less stable, the world’s nations will likely compete ever more desperately for access to fossil fuels, minerals, agricultural land, and water. Nations need increasing amounts of energy and raw materials to produce economic growth, but the costs of supplying new increments of energy and materials are burgeoning. In many cases, lower-quality resources with high extraction costs are all that…

• The Hemispheric Implications of Hugo Chavez's Illness

  The recent dramatic pronouncement that Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez underwent cancer treatment in Cuba reverberated far beyond Venezuela, depressing his allies and elating his enemies. While the leader of his self-proclaimed "Bolivarian revolution" is second only to his good buddy Fidel Castro in Washington's black book, the fact remains that Chavez has discreetly deployed Venezuela's vast oil and cash reserves to assist the struggling economies of a number of his Central American neighbors, which has earned him deep gratitude. Ever the showman on alert for any opportunity to tweak Uncle Sam's snout, in March 2006 in the aftermath of Hurricane…

• Pakistan to Tax NATO Transit Supplies?

  Consider – every single drop of fuel used by the NATO-led International Security Assistance Forces, largely composed of 90,000 U.S. military troops, must be brought into Afghanistan from outside the country. But the ISAF troops aren’t the only mouths to feed in Afghanistan, as in 2010 the Pentagon's Central Command put the number of contractors for the U.S. military at 107,000. For the last two months, not a drop of fuel, munitions or food has been delivered through Pakistan, as following a 26 November NATO aerial assault on two border posts in Mohmand Agency in Pakistan’s turbulent NorthWest Frontier Province that killed…

• Obama Administration Finds Few Asian Takers for Oil Sanctions Against Iran

  U.S. President Barack Obama recently signed a law imposing more sanctions on Iran's exports to punish Iran over its civilian nuclear uranium enrichment program, which Tehran insists is completely peaceful and allowable under IAEA regulations, but which Washington and Tel Aviv portray as masking a covert attempt to develop nuclear weapons.  Under the legislation, restrictions have been imposed on Iran's central bank with the objective of stifling Iranian oil exports, and the European Union has also hinted that more economic sanctions will be imposed on Iran, which will include a boycott of Iranian oil. The law bans those dealing with…

• Ahmedinejad Visits Latin America, Washington Implores and Seethes

  At the best of times, the U.S. government is regarded as somewhat out of touch with what’s happening in the American “heartland,” much less the world at large, so much so that the phrase “inside the Beltway” was coined to define the syndrome. But every now and again, an incident occurs that so perfectly encapsulates Washington’s self-absorbed navel gazing that little further comment is needed. On 9 January U.S. State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland provided such a “Kodak moment” to the Washington press corps. The object of her concern? Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad’s visit to Latin America, where he is touring Venezuela, Cuba,…

• Eight Strategic Factors to Consider in 2012

  Rarely in the past six decades has global context counted for as much in strategic forecasting — trend analysis — as it does at the dawn of 2012. Reliance on stove-piped analysis of “strategic sectors” — such as economic and financial issues, security issues, politics, geopolitics, resources and energy, sociology and religion, and so on — will produce skewed and unreliable estimates, and will tend to favor linear extrapolations of recent experience. A study of broad contextual factors, including an expanded view of history, will show how cycles and confluences of trends potentially play a greater disruptive role than at…

• Afghan Newspaper Lambasts China as Rapacious Exploiter

  With the news that the U.S. is holding secret talks with the Taliban in the Persian Gulf state of Qatar, many Afghans are looking towards a future when military operations cease and the country can begin to recover from more than three decades of war. Afghanistan’s infrastructure will require foreign aid in the billions, but the Pushtun-language independent Afghan newspaper Cheragh on 28 December published an editorial lambasting one of Afghanistan’s neighbors, which has the potential to inject billions of dollars in aid, but has so far contributed a miserly $150 million in reconstruction assistance while pursuing business deals worth billions. The…

• 7 Geopolitical Predictions for 2012

  As we begin a new year, it is customary to look back at all 2011 brought us. How many dictators fell or lost their lives, while their people found a new sense of empowerment and civic activism? How many countries are still left in an uncertain instability? Economic turmoil continued throughout the global community, although some countries came out of the year in better shape here than others. One war ended, but as the world hit 7 billion people, the world could be increasing instability. Could the developments of 2012 be as fascinating and global order-changing as 2011's were? According…

• Pakistani Editorial Says Nuclear War with India "Inevitable" as Water Dispute Continues

  Every now and again, one reads an editorial that stops the reader in his tracks. On 8 December, with the headline "War Inevitable To Tackle Indian Water Aggression," Pakistan’s Urdu-language Nawa-e Waqt, issued such a screed. Nawa-e Waqt bluntly commented on India’s Kashmiri water polices and Islamabad’s failure up to now to stop New Delhi’s efforts to construct hydroelectric dams in Kashmir, “India should be forcibly prevented from constructing these dams. If it fails to constrain itself, we should not hesitate in launching nuclear war because there is no solution except this.” Potential nuclear war over water rights – such…

• Furious at Latest U.S. Attack, Pakistan Shuts Down Resupply Routes to Afghanistan "Permanently"

  NATO recently literally shot itself in the foot, imperiling the resupply of International Assistance Forces (ISAF) in Afghanistan by shooting up two Pakistani border posts in a “hot pursuit’ raid. Given that roughly 100 fuel tanker trucks along with 200 other trucks loaded with NATO supplies cross into Afghanistan each day from Pakistan, Pakistan’s closure of the border has ominous long-term consequences for the logistical resupply of ISAF forces, even as Pentagon officials downplay the issue and scramble for alternative resupply routes. Pakistan, long angry about ISAF/NATO cross border raids, has apparently reached the end of its tether. Following the…