• 3 hours Conflicting News Spurs Doubt On Aramco IPO
  • 5 hours Exxon Starts Production At New Refinery In Texas
  • 6 hours Iraq Asks BP To Redevelop Kirkuk Oil Fields
  • 24 hours Oil Prices Rise After U.S. API Reports Strong Crude Inventory Draw
  • 1 day Oil Gains Spur Growth In Canada’s Oil Cities
  • 1 day China To Take 5% Of Rosneft’s Output In New Deal
  • 1 day UAE Oil Giant Seeks Partnership For Possible IPO
  • 1 day Planting Trees Could Cut Emissions As Much As Quitting Oil
  • 1 day VW Fails To Secure Critical Commodity For EVs
  • 1 day Enbridge Pipeline Expansion Finally Approved
  • 1 day Iraqi Forces Seize Control Of North Oil Co Fields In Kirkuk
  • 1 day OPEC Oil Deal Compliance Falls To 86%
  • 2 days U.S. Oil Production To Increase in November As Rig Count Falls
  • 2 days Gazprom Neft Unhappy With OPEC-Russia Production Cut Deal
  • 2 days Disputed Venezuelan Vote Could Lead To More Sanctions, Clashes
  • 2 days EU Urges U.S. Congress To Protect Iran Nuclear Deal
  • 2 days Oil Rig Explosion In Louisiana Leaves 7 Injured, 1 Still Missing
  • 2 days Aramco Says No Plans To Shelve IPO
  • 5 days Trump Passes Iran Nuclear Deal Back to Congress
  • 5 days Texas Shutters More Coal-Fired Plants
  • 5 days Oil Trading Firm Expects Unprecedented U.S. Crude Exports
  • 5 days UK’s FCA Met With Aramco Prior To Proposing Listing Rule Change
  • 5 days Chevron Quits Australian Deepwater Oil Exploration
  • 6 days Europe Braces For End Of Iran Nuclear Deal
  • 6 days Renewable Energy Startup Powering Native American Protest Camp
  • 6 days Husky Energy Set To Restart Pipeline
  • 6 days Russia, Morocco Sign String Of Energy And Military Deals
  • 6 days Norway Looks To Cut Some Of Its Generous Tax Breaks For EVs
  • 6 days China Set To Continue Crude Oil Buying Spree, IEA Says
  • 6 days India Needs Help To Boost Oil Production
  • 6 days Shell Buys One Of Europe’s Largest EV Charging Networks
  • 6 days Oil Throwback: BP Is Bringing Back The Amoco Brand
  • 6 days Libyan Oil Output Covers 25% Of 2017 Budget Needs
  • 6 days District Judge Rules Dakota Access Can Continue Operating
  • 7 days Surprise Oil Inventory Build Shocks Markets
  • 7 days France’s Biggest Listed Bank To Stop Funding Shale, Oil Sands Projects
  • 7 days Syria’s Kurds Aim To Control Oil-Rich Areas
  • 7 days Chinese Teapots Create $5B JV To Compete With State Firms
  • 7 days Oil M&A Deals Set To Rise
  • 7 days South Sudan Tightens Oil Industry Security
Alt Text

5 Big Gainers In Oil & Gas This Week

Energy stocks have been among…

Alt Text

Finally: A Way To Invest In Blockchain

Cryptocurrencies and the blockchain are…

Alt Text

Why Wall Street Is Bullish On Refiners

Wells Fargo has noted that…

Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Mad Hedge Fund Trader

John Thomas, The Mad Hedge Fund Trader is one of today's most successful Hedge Fund Managers and a 40 year veteran of the financial markets.…

More Info

The Stock Market's Dream Scenario

I’m sitting here with a mountain of technical analysis reports that are causing my desk to buckle this morning, all shouting “breakout”, “buy”, and “uptrend”. So I’m wondering, “is there a scenario out there where these might actually come to pass?”

At this point I thought it might be useful to engage in what Albert Einstein called “thought experiments” and come up with a New Theory of Everything. In any case, you have probably all figured out that I am a frustrated novelist. As my old friend and former mentor, Sherlock Holmes, used to say, “Eliminate the obvious, and consider all other possibilities.”

First, let’s see how we got here. It was obvious to me that the market was overdue for a huge short covering rally that would take the index up 20%-27% off the lows (see my early September piece “My Equity Scenario for the Rest of 2011”). That’s why I entitled my October 8 webinar “The Short Game is Over.”

Real GDP Growth

That is exactly what we got. Corporate earnings came in much better than traders expected, triggering a huge rush by underperforming managers to bring in some decent numbers by year end. We hit my target of the 200 day moving average at 1,275, a gain of 19.7%, and saw the second best month in stock market history.

Enter black swan number one. Last week, the hedge fund community established heavy short positions expecting a complete breakdown of the European sovereign debt crisis talks. But the bar was set so low they could only succeed. Ten minutes before midnight, we received an unexpected news flash about a comprehensive three part deal that was clearly a major leap forward. The Dow futures immediately gapped up 200 points in the overnight market.

That delivered the massive short covering rally on huge volume that generated all the technical green lights now on my desk. Conventional active managers panicked and stampeded to address substantially underweight positions which they achieved only recently at the market bottom.

So what happens next? In a few weeks, the Supercommittee reaches its deadline for achieving comprehensive budget balancing targets. Guess what? The hedge fund community is setting up large short positions in the run up to that day, betting that intransigent Republicans will refuse to agree to any tax hikes whatsoever, automatically triggering huge, deflationary spending cuts. The bet is that a market crash is a guaranteed outcome, similar to the one that followed the debt ceiling debacle in July.

GDP Parts YoY

Enter black swan number two. A smiling and deeply tanned John Boehner appears in front of the cameras at ten minutes to midnight, announcing that “he went the extra mile” and “reached across the aisle” and resurrected the $4 trillion deal he almost reached with Obama last summer before the Tea Party stabbed him in the back. The Dow futures immediately gap up 200 points in the overnight market, and a monster rally ensues, taking the S&P 500 up to its 2011 high of 1,367 by year end.

We then go into January with a market that looks very toppy and expensive. Active managers and talking heads complain bitterly that this is all short covering not justified by the fundamentals. But hey, a dollar made a short covering market buys just as much Jack Daniels at the bar as one made from long only buying. Hedge fund managers bet the ranch that a new market crash is coming, taking it back down to the bottom of the range 300 points lower. Traders are salivating at the prospect of making a killing, and active managers hurriedly move to underweight positions again.

Enter black swan number three. The People’s Bank of China announces in a carefully worded statement that its campaign to end rampant real estate speculation has finally succeeded. Developers have been seen cutting prices on new apartments coming on the market as much as 25%. As a result, the risks to the Chinese economy are now to the downside, and the central bank immediately cuts interest rates by 0.5%.

The Dow futures immediately gap up 200 points in the overnight market as the mother of all short covering rallies explodes. Commodities, like copper, coal, platinum, and palladium go through the roof. BHP Billiton (BHP), Joy Global (JOYG), Freeport McMoRan (FCX), Union Pacific (UNP), and Caterpillar (CAT) go bid only. Oil soars. The S&P 500 touches a new all-time high at 1,565. A major hedge fund manager jumps off the top of the Empire State building and crashes into a taxi on 5th avenue driven by an immigrant Nigerian taxi driver. His pockets are fill with trade confirms showing gigantic short covering losses. There is a twisted grin on his face.

OK, the Nigerian taxi driver was a bit much. But I will tell you one thing for sure. This flock of black swans absolutely has not been discounted by the market, and has a much higher probability than the market’s many armchair strategists, pundits, and seers realize.

Personally, I put the odds of all this unfolding at one in three. If we do manage to claw our way up that high, we will be at the top of a 13 year range for the market. Then the greatest shorting opportunity of a generation will be on the table because the Great Crash of 2012-2013 will be just around the corner.

By. Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment

Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News