Brent Crude broke 100.00/85 but held on to the next support at 99.50. Today we have support at 101.20/10 but below here look for 100.70/60 & then a retest of 99.85/65. A break lower today could target the 200 week moving average at 98.93. A low for the day is very possible here but longs need stops below 98.60.
102.00/10 is our first resistance but a break above yesterday’s high at 102.48 sees 102.80/85 & possibly a move towards 103.50/60. Exit longs & try shorts here with stops above 104.00.
WTI Crude again tested support in the 91.65/35 area & this held nicely. We then shot higher reaching the upper target of 93.50/80 where we advised to enter shorts & we topped exactly here in fact. Use stops above 94.20 as stated yesterday for the next resistance at 94.80/90. We have been moving sideways in the past few sessions as suggested by our green arrow. We can cover some shorts at 92.75/65 today but below the 200 day moving average at 92.30 look for a retest of 91.45/25. The daily chart is still quite negative so keeps stops tight on any longs below 91.00. On a break lower look for a move towards 90.65 then 90.11/00. Exit shorts & try longs here looking for a low for the day.
Natural Gas resistance at 4.011/034 did hold the bounce yesterday as predicted, where we suggested exiting longs & trying shorts with stops above Friday’s high of 4.064. This trade has worked perfectly with a high at 4.040. This resistance applies again today so we can try the same trade but a break higher would target resistance at 4.083.
We have fallen back to support at 3.970/940 which is also holding to offer a nice profit on our shorts. We look oversold in the short term at this stage so a bounce from here is possible as stated yesterday. However a break lower cannot be ruled out with the daily chart still negative & targets May lows at 3.897/883. A break lower would then see 3.861 tested.
RBOB Gasoline failed at resistance of 282.25/50 for the second day & also held support at 274. However today’s outlook is still quite negative so watch for a break lower to then target 271/70. If we continue lower we should test this years low at 269.15/268.80 this week but should look quite oversold at this stage.
If we can hold above 278.20 we could try for 280.90/281 today. We still have resistance at 282.25/50 but a break higher through 283.30 should trigger stops and a move towards resistance at 285.40/50. Look for a high for the day here to exit longs & try shorts with stops above 287.
Gasoil headed lower as expected breaking 838 but only as far as 834.25 before we bottomed. We warned that we were oversold short term & a sharp bounce unexpectedly took us through all resistance. Today strong resistance at 859 should hold the topside again so we could use this as a selling opportunity with stops above 863. Immediate support is 853.75 but below here sees 851/50 & possibly 846.50/25. Watch for a bounce from here & may be a low for the day but a break lower could target 841/840 then yesterday’s low at 834. Another break lower today then targets 831/830.
By. Jason Sen