RBOB Gasoline tested the 100 day moving average at 292.81 but fortunately topped at 292.76 to keep us short. We are now overbought & could head lower as we start this week. First support at 289/87 with the 200 day moving average & this did in fact hold the pullback on Friday, but below here we could see 283.60/282.50 tested to take profit on any remaining shorts. We can use 289.50/291 for a selling opportunity again today with stops above the 100 day moving average at 292.84. A break higher then targets 294.91, possibly 297.76.
Natural Gas did bottom out & push higher as predicted, to reach our upper target of 4.092. We start this week looking positive so watch for a break above 4.097 to take us up towards 4.130/33 & possibly as far as 4.163. We should struggle in this area today so watch for a high for the day but if we push on we could reach 4.230/250 perhaps later in the week. Failure to beat resistance at 4.093/97 today however could see us drift back to 4.015. We should meet buyers here so watch for a low for the day but if we continue lower we could retest 3.940/930 support.
Gasoil unexpectedly broke above 875 to fill the gap at 883.75 but held just below at 882.75. We are now very overbought so we could see profit taking at the start of this week. Look for a dip back to support at 873.55 with a bounce possible. However if we continue lower we meet good support at 868/867 & a good chance of a low for the day to exit any remaining shorts. Next support at 863.25 & then 859/858 could be a buying opportunity later in the week. 882.75/883.75 is our first challenge this week on the topside, with further resistance at 889.35. We should struggle here so watch for a high for the day but shorts need stops above 893 for a test of resistance at 898.
Brent Crude did break above our stop of 104.80 but only made it to 104.87. This did not fit in with our expectation. We are overbought but could push on for 105.31. We should struggle here so watch for a high for the day but if we continue higher look for a retest of 105.95/106.05 May highs. This should hold again this week so we could exit longs & try shorts with stops above 106.50 for a test of March lows at 106.80. Immediate support is at 104.40/20 so a break below here should trigger sell orders & keep the market under pressure for 103.55/35. This may hold the downside but a break lower should see 102.95 & possibly 102.70/50. Good support below then at 102.05/101.90.
WTI Crude broke above 96.00 which was a little unexpected & we reached 96.45. We could keep up last week’s momentum for a test of May highs at 97.17 but we are overbought and may not even make it this far so watch 96.45/65 along the way. Above 97.17 we hit 3 month trend line resistance at 97.53 & April highs at 97.80. We should fail with in this 97.17/80 band. Being overbought, if we cannot beat 96.45/65 look for a drift back to 95.50. Below here we should see 95.01 & possibly good support at 94.47/44 which should hold the downside. However a break lower again today then targets further good support at 93.67/64.
By. Jason Sen