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Technical Review of the Energy Markets - 15th March 2013

RBOB Gasoline is predicted to have topped out after a 4 month rally. Yesterday we tested 310/309 support for the third day in a row. Today it is more likely that we break below 310/309 support to target 304.71. This should provide a floor but if we break lower look for 299.52. Next week we could fill the roll over gap at 292.12 but we are not expected to fall any further and this could be a very good buying opportunity.

We now face resistance at 316.33/317.19 & if we can break above here we may reach 321.69. A push through 323.90 would then be needed for a retest of 326.72 highs which look likely to hold the topside once again.

 RBOB Daily Chart 15.03.13
Click to enlarge.

Natural Gas continued higher as expected to hit the week’s target of 3.748. We have pushed on & if we can hold above 3.815/3.748 we should go for 3.868 today. Above here we are looking for a test of last year’s high at 3.933. However the market is becoming very over bought now and we do expect to see a top for the bull run this year at this stage.

Natural Gas Daily Chart 15.03.13
Click to enlarge.

Gasoil held 910/908 support & our buying opportunity. We have bounced back above 910 & beaten the first resistance level of 915.18 as hoped as we look for 919.78 now. This could cap the move today but if we see continued buying look for 923.50 where it may be wise to exit longs & perhaps try shorts.

910/908 should offer support again today with the chance of another low as the market is heavily over sold. However below here risks a test of Dec lows at 901 & then the low for 2012 at 897.00.

Gasoil Daily Chart 15.03.13
Click to enlarge.

May Brent Crude has held above 107.91/84 Fibonacci support & is now testing 109.56 resistance.

Above here we look for 110.00/10 as the next target. We could see prices top out here today but if we manage to push on higher look for a test of very tough resistance at 110.50/60. We would not expect prices to push through here today.

If we dip below 108.90 this could signal a retest of 107.91/84 support & we would look for a bounce off here again today. A break below 107.80 however keeps the pressure on for 107.58 & then 107.09/01. Below here risks a test of December lows at 106.66/63.

Brent Daily Chart 15.03.13
Click to enlarge.

WTI Crude held above support at support at 91.89 to beat resistance at 92.50/70 & retest 93.40/47. A break higher looks possible today for further resistance up to 93.72 where there is a good chance of a high today. However a push through here could see us heading for 94.46/76 as the next target.

92.68/49 support may hold a move lower if we fail to break 93.40/47 again. However below 92.40 we could reach 91.89 next. If this does not hold the move we meet stronger support at 91.40 today & the chance of a low. There is further support however at 91.14 so only below 90.90 would stops need to be activated on longs.

WTI Crude Daily Chart 15.03.13
Click to enlarge.

By. Jason Sen




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