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Technical Review for the Energy Markets - 21st February 2013

Natural Gas went for a test of 3.320/328 where we predicted a high & we fell just a fraction short at 3.313. We are now testing support at 3.250 but we do expect a break lower for 3.20 then below here there is little to stop a retest of February lows at 3.140/125. Just below at 3.010/085 is 200 day MA, daily & weekly Fibonacci support & mid Jan lows so we should bottom here. Worth exiting shorts & trying longs with a stop below 3.050.      

Any bounce should be a selling opportunity with resistance at 3.290 & 3.313.

WTI Crude Daily Chart 21.02.13
Click to enlarge.

Gasoil broke lower as predicted to hit 991/989 support with an exact low at 990. We are building downside momentum now & we could expect prices to continue lower today. A break of 989 targets 981/979 which could offer an excellent buying opportunity with a low for the correction expected here. 

Any bounce is seen as a selling opportunity with 998/999 likely to cap. Above here however 1001/1002 and 1006/07 offer further tough resistance. 

Brent Daily Chart 21.02.13
Click to enlarge.

March RBOB failed at our first obstacle of 312.50 topping at 312.39. The break of 306/305 is a surprise but this level should now act as resistance. Next support is 302.36/301.50 and a low possible here today. However a break targets 298.90/298.60. If we cannot bounce from here look for 293.35/00 & what should be a very good buying opportunity with a low here expected this week if tested.

A push above 307 could allow a test of 309/310 resistance.

Gasoil Daily Chart 21.02.13
Click to enlarge.

Brent has failed at 117.60/40 resistance as the outlook weakens. We have broken 115.88/83 & should now head for 114.38 with a break lower possible & should target 113.67.

Any bounce is seen as a selling opportunity with 115.80/90 a possible high for the day but above here we would be selling or adding to shorts up to 116.60/70 with a stop above 117.00.

Natural Gas Daily Chart 21.02.13
Click to enlarge.

WTI Crude Oil hit our expected high at 96.90/97.00 for the March contract as we sold in to shorts. We have been building a topping pattern for 3 weeks now & yesterday we broke the base of this pattern. This should mean that prices are about to collapse further with 92.85/82 our first target for the April contract. Levels to look for along the way are 93.90/80 & 93.20/10.

Any bounce is a selling opportunity with resistance at 95.26. Unlikely we push any higher but a break targets 95.91. We would sell short or add to shorts here with a stop above 96.50.

RBOB Daily Chart 21.02.13
Click to enlarge.

By. Jason Sen




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