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Technical Review for the Energy Markets - 19th February 2013

By Jason Sen
Posted on Tue, 19 February 2013 14:42 | 0

WTI Crude Oil was predicted to sell off on Friday & we saw sharp losses for a retest of Feb lows at 95.06/94.97. We bounced just above here & with short term oscillators flashing over sold we should hold this support if tested again today.  We are looking for a move towards resistance at 96.17, possibly 96.54 above. If we push higher we expect a high at 96.90/97.00, & are looking to sell in to shorts here with a stop above 97.50.

Longs need a tight stop below 94.70 however as the daily outlook remains weak & a break lower targets 94.20 then 93.80/70 & much better support below at 93.10/92.90. This could mark the low for the week if tested.

WTI Crude Daily Chart 19.02.13

Brent made it back to tough resistance at 118.04/15 again and this did prove unbeatable as expected. Very possible we fail here again today but on a break we have a gap to close & tough resistance at 118.42/51. If we manage to keep pushing higher we hit Feb highs at 119.12/17 which are expected to hold on a retest.

The outlook remains weak so below 117.60/40 look for 117.05/116.95 with failure here risking risks another test of last week’s low at 116.28/19. Good chance of a low here again today with further strong support just below at 115.88/83.

Brent Daily Chart 19.02.13

Gasoil range has been established from 1000/999 up to 1029/32. Resistance along the way is at 1011/12 then 1015 with 1019 likely to cap today. However above here look for 1024/25. A close above 1032 today is now needed to continue the bull run to 1037 then 2012 highs of 1045 where bulls could run in to a big obstacle.

Support at 1006 but below 1004 risks another test of good support at 1000/99 and a bounce likely. Stops needed however below 996 for 989 as the next target. 

Gasoil Daily Chart 19.02.13

Natural Gas has good support around the 200 day moving average at 3.095/085. We also have daily & weekly Fibonacci support and mid Jan lows so this is an important level & we should bottom here. Worth exiting shorts & trying longs with a stop below 3.050.      

Resistance at 3.200/202 looks unlikely to be broken just yet. However if we do push higher look for 3.224, possibly 3.245/250 for an excellent selling opportunity.

Natural Gas Daily Chart 19.02.13

March RBOB has embarked on the next leg of the bull run which should target 320 & probably as far as 323.89. We have support at 312.50 which should hold a slide. However below here 310 is likely to provide a floor & an excellent buying opportunity for today if tested.

Last week’s high of 316.39 is resistance but a break of 317 targets 320.50.

RBOB Daily Chart 19.02.13

By. Jason Sen


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