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OilPrice.com | Energy | Oil Prices Crude oil price analysis and research that covers crude oil futures and oil price forecasts. We also look at events that cause oil price movements. http://oilprice.com/ Wed, 08 Feb 2012 20:13:03 GMT Oilprice.com (info@oilprice.com) Crude Oil Analysis for the Week of February 6, 2012 http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Crude-Oil-Analysis-for-the-Week-of-February-6-2012.html March Crude Oil closed lower last week after posting an expanded range. The market continued its downslide that began five weeks ago when it topped out at $103.90. Heavy selling pressure early in the week drove the market close to a key 50 percent price level at $95.40. After it reached the low for the week on Thursday at $95.44, traders showed their respect for the 50 percent level by creating a short-covering rally that prevented the market from closing on its low. The weekly chart indicates layers of support this week. The first level is the…

]]> axempire@oilprice.com (FX Empire) Tue, 07 Feb 2012 13:55:24 GMT http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Crude-Oil-Analysis-for-the-Week-of-February-6-2012.html What Affect Will High Oil Prices Have on the 2012 Election http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/What-Affect-Will-High-Oil-Prices-Have-on-the-2012-Election.html If current trends continue, gasoline prices and U.S. energy policy seem destined to play a larger role in the political debate prior to the November elections than ever before. Gasoline on the East Coast is already within striking distance of all-time highs and most prognosticators are talking about the likelihood of $4+ gasoline before summer. Although the U.S. consumer is more inured to $4 gasoline than four years ago, the crossing of the $4 barrier is bound to set off another round of recriminations and finger pointing as to just who or what…

]]> postcarbon@oilprice.com (Post Carbon) Fri, 03 Feb 2012 2:47:31 GMT http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/What-Affect-Will-High-Oil-Prices-Have-on-the-2012-Election.html Crude Oil Market Forecast for the Week of January 30, 2012 http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Crude-Oil-Market-Forecast-for-the-Week-of-January-30-2012.html March crude oil closed higher last week after the Fed announced it would keep interest rates at ultra-low levels until late-2014. The news helped trigger a short-covering rally which turned the market around after an earlier set-back. From a long-term perspective the main trend is up, but the developing double-top at $103.20 to $103.90 indicates the presence of selling pressure. Conventional chart pattern analysis says, however, that the double-top will not be confirmed until the swing bottom at $92.95 is violated. Short-term traders seem to be…

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]]> axempire@oilprice.com (FX Empire) Sun, 29 Jan 2012 17:17:08 GMT http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Crude-Oil-Market-Forecast-for-the-Week-of-January-30-2012.html Peak Oil Crisis Being Compounded by Refinery Closures http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Peak-Oil-Crisis-Being-Compounded-by-Refinery-Closures.html Here is one more thing for those of us who live in the North Eastern U.S. to start worrying about - the refineries that make our gasoline, diesel, heating oil, etc. are dropping like flies.In today's economy, these refineries are simply losing so much money that their owners who are not major oil companies that make billions from oil production are having put them up for sale or close them down. In recent years we lost refineries in Westville, NJ, and Yorktown, Va. A large refinery in southeastern Pennsylvania was shut down in December as was one…

]]> postcarbon@oilprice.com (Post Carbon) Thu, 26 Jan 2012 23:45:13 GMT http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Peak-Oil-Crisis-Being-Compounded-by-Refinery-Closures.html China's Energy Firms Invade the Great White North http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Chinas-Energy-Firms-Invade-the-Great-White-North.html Canada is the largest source of U.S. oil imports. According to the U.S. Energy Administration, in 2011 U.S. total crude oil imports averaged 9,033 thousand barrels per day (tbpd), with the top exporting country being Canada (2,666 tbpd), distantly followed by Mexico with 50 percent less, at 1,319 tbpd. But things are in turmoil in the Canadian energy field, not least because last week the Obama administration rejected Republican attempts to fast-track the Keystone XL pipeline, which would have sent Alberta oil sands to U.S. refineries…

]]> admin@namecake.com (John Daly) Mon, 23 Jan 2012 1:56:21 GMT http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Chinas-Energy-Firms-Invade-the-Great-White-North.html Crude Oil Analysis for the Week of January 23, 2012 http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Crude-Oil-Analysis-for-the-Week-of-January-23-2012.html Despite the shift in the fundamentals the week before, March Crude Oil failed to follow-through to the downside and the market finished the week with an inside range. This pattern typically indicates impending volatility since a market like crude oil seldom trades in a tight range two weeks in a row. The main trend is up. This will be confirmed if the market can trade through the recent top at $103.90. This will reaffirm the uptrend, but the market may run into resistance at the downtrending Gann angle at $105.87. On the downside, a trade through…

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]]> axempire@oilprice.com (FX Empire) Mon, 23 Jan 2012 1:36:46 GMT http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Crude-Oil-Analysis-for-the-Week-of-January-23-2012.html Natural Gas Analysis for the Week of January 23, 2012 http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Natural-Gas-Analysis-for-the-Week-of-January-23-2012.html March Natural Gas gapped lower on the weekly chart. This is a rare occurrence that often indicates exhaustion in markets that have experienced prolonged moves down in terms of price and time, but since this market followed-through to the downside the rest of the week, it probably means lower prices to follow. The sharp plunge in natural gas prices pulled the market away from the pair of downtrending Gann angles it had been attached to since June and July 2011. These two angles are now resistance at 2.5360 and 2.6350. Besides filling in the weekly…

]]> axempire@oilprice.com (FX Empire) Mon, 23 Jan 2012 1:33:58 GMT http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Natural-Gas-Analysis-for-the-Week-of-January-23-2012.html How will the Economy Fare if High Oil Prices Continue http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-will-the-Economy-Fare-if-High-Oil-Prices-Continue.html We know high oil prices have an adverse impact on the economy, often leading to recession. According to Economist James Hamilton, 10 out of 11 of US recessions since World War II have been associated with oil price spikes. But where do continuing high oil prices lead us? How will economic contraction “play out,” if tight oil supply and high oil prices continue? Figure 1. Structure built with blocks. Our economy is also built piece by piece, based on the rules and prices that are in effect when individual decisions are made. Clearly…

]]> tverberg@oilprice.com (Gail Tverberg) Fri, 20 Jan 2012 0:43:50 GMT http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-will-the-Economy-Fare-if-High-Oil-Prices-Continue.html Possible Implications of the Iranian Oil Embargo http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Possible-Implications-Of-The-Iranian-Oil-Embargo.html As efforts continue to impose sanctions on Iran, I thought it would be helpful to discuss the possible implications of these developments for oil-consuming countries. The most likely outcome of an embargo on oil purchased from Iran is that the countries participating in the embargo buy less oil from Iran while other countries not participating in the embargo buy more oil from Iran ([1], [2]). While this would produce some dislocations, if total world oil production doesn't change, it would have little effect on either Iran or oil-consuming countries,…

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]]> flybiggles555@yahoo.com (James Hamilton) Mon, 16 Jan 2012 23:50:29 GMT http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Possible-Implications-Of-The-Iranian-Oil-Embargo.html Crude Oil Analysis for the Week of January 16, 2011 http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Crude-Oil-Analysis-For-The-Week-Of-January-16-2011.html March Crude Oil traded sharply lower last week with an expanded range. Based on the previous week’s failure to follow-through to the upside when the market took out the previous top at $103.20 on its way to $103.90, it looks as if buyers are scarce at the current price level. The close below the psychological $100 price as well as a major .618 Fibonacci level at $99.99, are also signs that crude oil may have gotten too expensive. Pattern watchers will note that the market may be forming a short-term double-top at $103.20 and $103.90. Conventional…

]]> axempire@oilprice.com (FX Empire) Sun, 15 Jan 2012 15:55:29 GMT http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Crude-Oil-Analysis-For-The-Week-Of-January-16-2011.html Why Oil Prices Are About to Collapse http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Why-Oil-Prices-Are-About-To-Collapse.html All is not as it appears in the global oil markets, which have become entirely dysfunctional and no longer fit for its purpose, in my view. I believe that the market price is about to collapse as it did in 2008, and that this will mark the end of an era in which the market has been run by and on behalf of trading and financial intermediaries. In this post I forecast the imminent death of the crude oil market and I identify the killers; the re-birth of the global market in crude oil in new form will be the subject of another post. Global Oil Pricing…

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]]> tol@oilprice.com (The Oil Drum) Thu, 12 Jan 2012 23:35:32 GMT http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Why-Oil-Prices-Are-About-To-Collapse.html Crude Oil Analysis for the Week of January 9, 2011 http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Crude-Oil-Analysis-For-The-Week-Of-January-9-2011.html February Crude Oil closed higher last week despite the stronger U.S. Dollar and a general aversion to risky assets. This only proves what traders have known for weeks that crude oil has decoupled from the rest of the market. Technically, weekly crude oil is in an uptrend. As long as the newly formed main bottom at $92.70 remains intact, the trend will remain up. Last week the market poked through the previous main top at $103.28 without much fanfare. The lack of volatility came as a surprise; however, this may have been caused by the stronger Dollar…

]]> axempire@oilprice.com (FX Empire) Sun, 08 Jan 2012 17:03:29 GMT http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Crude-Oil-Analysis-For-The-Week-Of-January-9-2011.html Crude Oil Analysis for the Week of January 2, 2011 http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Crude-Oil-Analysis-For-The-Week-Of-January-2-2011.html February Crude Oil had a weak follow-through to the upside after a powerful rally the week before. The thin holiday trade was probably the biggest reason for the lack of follow-through. From a technical perspective, the feeble rally suggests that the strong rally from the week before was likely heavy short-covering rather than new buying. Buyers have been scarce lately because of the financial turmoil in Europe and the strength of the U.S. Dollar. Commodities priced in dollars tend to weaken when the greenback strengthens. Not only was last week’s…

]]> axempire@oilprice.com (FX Empire) Mon, 02 Jan 2012 13:55:49 GMT http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Crude-Oil-Analysis-For-The-Week-Of-January-2-2011.html War Imminent in Straits of Hormuz? $200 a Barrel Oil? http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/War-Imminent-In-Straits-Of-Hormuz-200-A-Barrel-Oil.html The pieces and policies for potential conflict in the Persian Gulf are seemingly drawing inexorably together. Since 24 December the Iranian Navy has been holding its ten-day Velayat 90 naval exercises, covering an area in the Arabian Sea stretching from east of the Strait of Hormuz entrance to the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Aden. The day the maneuvers opened Iranian Navy Commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari told a press conference that the exercises were intended to show "Iran's military prowess and defense capabilities in international…

]]> admin@namecake.com (John Daly) Thu, 29 Dec 2011 15:15:24 GMT http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/War-Imminent-In-Straits-Of-Hormuz-200-A-Barrel-Oil.html Crude Oil Analysis for the Week of December 26, 2011 http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Crude-Oil-Analysis-For-The-Week-Of-December-26-2011.html Last week the fundamentals clashed with the technicals in the February Crude Oil futures market and by week’s end the fundamentals clearly won. Even though the contract did not take out any significant price levels, the strong upside momentum probably gave bullish traders the incentive to continue to buy while putting fear into the short-traders and encouraging them to continue to cover their positions. Technically, the main trend on the weekly chart remains up although momentum was clearly beginning to shift to the downside after 4 weeks of…

]]> axempire@oilprice.com (FX Empire) Mon, 26 Dec 2011 17:22:16 GMT http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Crude-Oil-Analysis-For-The-Week-Of-December-26-2011.html How Oil Prices Affect the Price of Food http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-Oil-Prices-Affect-The-Price-Of-Food.html The current global food system is highly fuel- and transport-dependent. Fuels will almost certainly become less affordable in the near and medium term, making the current, highly fuel-dependent agricultural production system less secure and food less affordable. It is therefore necessary to promote food self-sufficiency and reduce the need for fuel inputs to the food system at all levels. The connection between food and oil is systemic, and the prices of both food and fuel have risen and fallen more or less in tandem in recent years (figure 1).…

]]> postcarbon@oilprice.com (Post Carbon) Wed, 21 Dec 2011 18:07:10 GMT http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-Oil-Prices-Affect-The-Price-Of-Food.html Crude Oil Analysis for the Week of December 19, 2011 http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Crude-Oil-Analysis-For-The-Week-Of-December-19-2011.html February Crude Oil confirmed its weekly closing price top at $103.28 with its sell-off through the last minor bottom at $95.16 and a key 50 percent level at $95.15. In addition, the penetration and subsequent close under the uptrending Gann angle at $97.73 this week is also a sign of impending weakness. Finally, the market closed on the bearish side of a downtrending Gann angle at $98.07. All of these factors indicate the crude oil market is poised to move lower. The current chart pattern suggests a trade down to a combination uptrending Gann angle/50…

]]> axempire@oilprice.com (FX Empire) Mon, 19 Dec 2011 21:21:48 GMT http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Crude-Oil-Analysis-For-The-Week-Of-December-19-2011.html Price of Oil to Remain High as OPEC Limits World Production http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Price-Of-Oil-To-Remain-High-As-OPEC-Limits-World-Production.html The results of OPEC’s latest meeting to set oil production quotas were on Thursday last week. Instead of production targets for individual countries, a group production ceiling of 30 million barrels a day was set. This amount is a bit less than OPEC produced in November 2011 (actual 30.367 mbd), according to its reckoning, and less than it would have produced most of 2011, if Libyan production had stayed on line, based on the amounts shown in its November Oil Market Report. A recent history of oil production from the November Oil Market Report,…

]]> tverberg@oilprice.com (Gail Tverberg) Fri, 16 Dec 2011 1:53:04 GMT http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Price-Of-Oil-To-Remain-High-As-OPEC-Limits-World-Production.html Crude Oil Analysis for the Week of December 12, 2011 http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Crude-Oil-Analysis-For-The-Week-Of-December-12-2011.html January Crude Oil futures had a strong surge on Friday, but still managed to close lower for the week. Renewed buying helped prices rise for the first time after three consecutive lower-lows. News that the European Union was close to reaching a possible solution to the Euro Zone crisis triggered the turnaround in prices. Brent Crude Oil in London finished 53 cents higher, but West Texas Intermediate rose a lofty $1.07. Despite the strong showing on the daily chart, the weekly chart indicated a slightly lower trade. This was not enough, however,…

]]> axempire@oilprice.com (FX Empire) Sun, 11 Dec 2011 17:16:13 GMT http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Crude-Oil-Analysis-For-The-Week-Of-December-12-2011.html Crude Oil Analysis for the Week of December 5, 2011 http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Crude-Oil-Analysis-For-The-Week-Of-December-5-2011.html January crude oil finished sharply higher last week. The rally was primarily driven by greater demand for risky assets fueled by a weaker Dollar and stronger equity markets. The market started out weak, but at mid-week the U.S. Federal Reserve and other major central banks joined in a coordinated effort to flood the financial markets with Dollars. The added liquidity wasn’t the only factor driving the crude oil market higher. Increased tensions in the Middle East caught the interest of traders as events continue to draw the global community closer…

]]> axempire@oilprice.com (FX Empire) Mon, 05 Dec 2011 15:42:39 GMT http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Crude-Oil-Analysis-For-The-Week-Of-December-5-2011.html