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Keith Schaefer

Keith Schaefer

Keith is the publisher of the Oil & Gas Investments Bulletin – an investment newsletter that looks at opportunities within the Canadian small cap oil…

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Local Gas - Why Nat Gas Pipeline Stocks Could Soon Lose Out

Dividend-paying pipeline companies have performed well for natural resource investors lately.

But there's a new twist to this story that could alter this trend... and the stock charts are agreeing with me.

Everyone knows the stock share prices of natural gas producers have been hit hard by the low price and bearish outlook for the commodity.

A new report from Denver-based energy analytics company BENTEK, however, has me thinking  the following:  Natural gas pipeline stocks, pipeline Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) and pipeline ETFs/ETNs in the U.S. could come under big pressure in the coming weeks.

You see, Bentek’s new findings — “West Absorbs Marcellus Shale,” reports says that the northeast US, the most lucrative retail gas market in North America, can be fed mostly from fast rising natural gas production out of the Marcellus shale.

In other words, a “local market” for that shale deposit.

If fact, with so many new shale gas deposits—located all over the U.S.—now every market can be served with “local gas,” greatly reducing the need for pipelines. As I said, dividend paying pipeline companies have been some of the best performing stocks for resource investors, but the shale gas supply glut may drag them down now as well.

“From a fundamental and market point of view, it doesn’t bode well for those (gas pipeline) flows to remain high, due to growth in eastern shales,” says Bentek’s Sheetal Nasta, one of the authors of the report.

“We have local supply to serve local demand, not just in the Northeast, but in the Midwest, with the EagleFord and Granite Wash plays. Local production will serve local demand and long haul pipes are losing favour because of that.”

That is not good news for companies like Kinder Morgan (KMP-NYSE) which just spent $4.4 billion on the new REX pipeline that goes from Wyoming to Ohio—or for TransCanada Pipelines (TRP-NYSE; TRP-TSX), with its main gas line from Alberta to Sarnia Ontario.  To their benefit, many of these companies have long life contracts that get them through market swoons.

Pipeline stocks, ETFs/ETNs, and MLPs fell to their lowest intraday drop in months last Friday.  (MLPs, or Master Limited Partnerships, are tax-advantaged investment vehicles that make distributions similar to dividends.)

The listings I saw recently that were affected most were the Alerian ETF and ETN products:

- MLPL-NYSE—2x Leveraged Long Alerian MLP Infrastructure Index ETN
- MLPI-NYSE—Alerian MLP Infrastructure Index ETN
- AMJ-NYSE—JP Morgan Alerian MLP Index ETN

Note that they were NOT textbook reversals, but they were larger than normal down days.

Two of the largest pipeline companies in the US also broke stride with recent uptrends after the Bentek report came out. Kinder Morgan’s KMP-NYSE listing had its biggest intraday drop since the market crunch of early October. Enterprise Partners (EPD-NYSE), also had a large intraday drop, but it was not as unusual.

The reason pipelines exist is to take low price supply to higher priced demand. But the huge supply has depressed gas prices everywhere in North America, so there is little to no price spread on gas between the various hubs in the US. And for the first time in history, some price spreads have gone negative, says Nasta.

“Westbound flows on Ruby (the new Ruby pipeline moves gas west, from western Wyoming to Malin Oregon, on the California border) picked up in November and eastern REX flows dropped off (REX takes gas east, from eastern Wyoming to Ohio).”

The reason REX gas flows dropped was because of all the new gas production out of the Marcellus shale—the east just didn’t need near as much western gas.

“Demand in the west absorbed that incremental gas,” Nasta continues. “Due to a combination of mild demand in the east and increased production in Marcellus, prices on east side of the US (the Dominion South hub in Ohio) got really weak–and the spread between east and west went negative.

“That is historically unusual.  It wasn’t that long ago—a couple years–the price spreads between those two hubs were over $1 (per thousand cubic feet, or mcf).  But I don’t think it’s ever been negative.”

natural gas
*source: Bentek GIS

“Spreads across the country are flat. We don’t need long haul gas.”

For high REX volumes to keep flowing, she says, the gap, or spread in prices between Wyoming’s Opal hub and Ohio’s Dominion South hub have to widen out again—meaning the western Opal gas price has to get weaker.

But gas production in the Wyoming area is flat; no growth. Combine that with increased pipeline capacity to get gas out of Opal—thanks to the new Ruby pipeline that just started in 2011—Nasta says she doesn’t see Opal’s gas basis falling much anytime soon.

So not only is there a lot of gas, it’s everywhere, reducing the need for pipelines, and that’s all coming at a time when a lot of pipelines have been built. Pipelines are like any other commodity; their pricing goes by supply and demand. It appears that local supply is going up and long haul demand is going down. Competition is almost certainly going to bring pipeline prices—the toll charges they give gas producers—down.

For resource investors, and income investors, pipeline stocks have been a steady to good performer. But if Bentek is right, I see their multiples—if not their actual dividends—being reduced if current trends in the gas market keep going the way they are.

Here’s a link to the Bentek report.

By. Keith Schaefer

DISCLOSURE: Keith Schaefer is neither long nor short any of the companies mentioned above, and has no intention of initiating a position.

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Leave a comment
  • Robert Berke on February 18 2012 said:
    Congrats on being the first to question the growing MLP fever that has seized the markets. Could it be we're now seeing an emerging bubble around the whole shale boom? Chesapeake may be a good indicator as this industry leader is now rapidly selling off prized properties as the glut continues to erode ng prices. Also, a major warning is on the horizon as industry imputs are hit by scarcity (water, for instance) and rising prices (sand, etc), labor and material shortages. Is it time to say too much competition has made for an unending product over-production and a long time glut?

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