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The Fate Of Libyan Oil Hangs In The Balance

Haftar Waiting Out Another Turkish Misstep in Libya

Last week, international media said that Libyan oil production had dropped to just under 164,000 bpd. Less than a week later, on Monday, Feb 17th, the Libyan National Oil Company (NOC) said that oil production was down to just under 136,000 bpd. That represents a financial loss of over $1.6 billion.  

The NOC is still supplying the Central and Eastern regions with enough to meet their transport and domestic needs, though storage facilities in and around Tripoli are facing supply shortages. 

It is not a sustainable situation, even as the media claim that both sides in the conflict are in it for the long haul. Money will dictate otherwise.

The tension on the ground this week was palpable, and more confusing than ever as Libyans celebrated the revolution that overthrew Ghaddafi on February 17 eight years ago. After eight years of chaos hijacked by various militias, no one knows exactly what they’re celebrating. 

It will be important to watch what Turkey does next because it’s in a tight spot and has overstepped in multiple venues. It’s being overrun by the Syrian Army and the Russians in Syria, and it’s sent Syrian mercenaries (with false promises) to fight in Libya. They are not likely to represent a loyal mercenary force when they realize they won’t get what they want back at home in Syria. Again, that is leverage for Haftar in Tripoli, where he’s…





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