The Texas Rail Road Commission just released their oil and gas production report with the August data. As you probably know by now that this data is incomplete. The latest months will all turn down but as more companies report their data, which can be up to two years late, the data will reflect what is actually produced.
There is something strange about the August data however. This is the first time since last November that all four data sets, Crude, Condensate, Gas Well Gas and Casinghead (Associated) gas, are showing lower production than the previous month. So keeping in mind that the previous months data was just as incomplete as this months is, the data should, if production is increasing, still show an increase. This month however, it does not.
All oil data is in barrels per day and all Gas data is in MCF per day with the last data point August 2013.
The August crude only data was 124,723 bpd below July.
Texas Condensate was moving up rather smartly until June of 2013. Since then it has been erratic. It is clear that Texas condensate production is not increasing very much and may now actually be declining. Texas condensate (incomplete data) dropped 41,175 bpd, July to August.
The EIA data in the above chart is only through July but the RRC data is through August. But it is interesting that the EIA has Texas C+C production increasing at either 46 or 47 thousand barrels per day ever since last September but in July dropped their guess to only 28 thousand barrels per day. It will be interesting to see what they estimate for August. Texas total C+C was down 165,898 bpd in the incomplete data for both months.
Texas associated gas had been showing a rather large jump from final month to the next final month until this month. I am sure that eventually August production will show an increase when all the data comes in, but it will not be nearly as great a monthly increase as it was in July.
There is little doubt that Texas gas well gas has peaked. But the peak is due to the price of gas being so low. If gas prices were to increase to $6 to $8 per MCF we would likely see Texas gas well gas increase again. But we have always known that the price affects the production of both gas and oil. And this fact is clearly apparent in the production of Texas gas well gas. At any rate Texas gas well gas likely peaked back in November 2011.
Texas total gas production may have not yet peaked. But I would not be surprised if June of 2013 or April of 2014 turns out to be the peak. Well that is unless gas prices go a lot higher in the next few years.
The JODI oil numbers came in a few days ago. I thought it interesting that they show nothing much happening to World C+C production in almost 3 years.
And just in case you were wondering what World C+C production would look like without the input from the US Shale Oil Patch.
By Ron Patterson
(Source: Peak Oil Barrel)
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