• 35 mins OPEC Oil Deal Compliance Falls To 86%
  • 16 hours U.S. Oil Production To Increase in November As Rig Count Falls
  • 18 hours Gazprom Neft Unhappy With OPEC-Russia Production Cut Deal
  • 20 hours Disputed Venezuelan Vote Could Lead To More Sanctions, Clashes
  • 22 hours EU Urges U.S. Congress To Protect Iran Nuclear Deal
  • 24 hours Oil Rig Explosion In Louisiana Leaves 7 Injured, 1 Still Missing
  • 1 day Aramco Says No Plans To Shelve IPO
  • 4 days Trump Passes Iran Nuclear Deal Back to Congress
  • 4 days Texas Shutters More Coal-Fired Plants
  • 4 days Oil Trading Firm Expects Unprecedented U.S. Crude Exports
  • 4 days UK’s FCA Met With Aramco Prior To Proposing Listing Rule Change
  • 4 days Chevron Quits Australian Deepwater Oil Exploration
  • 4 days Europe Braces For End Of Iran Nuclear Deal
  • 5 days Renewable Energy Startup Powering Native American Protest Camp
  • 5 days Husky Energy Set To Restart Pipeline
  • 5 days Russia, Morocco Sign String Of Energy And Military Deals
  • 5 days Norway Looks To Cut Some Of Its Generous Tax Breaks For EVs
  • 5 days China Set To Continue Crude Oil Buying Spree, IEA Says
  • 5 days India Needs Help To Boost Oil Production
  • 5 days Shell Buys One Of Europe’s Largest EV Charging Networks
  • 5 days Oil Throwback: BP Is Bringing Back The Amoco Brand
  • 5 days Libyan Oil Output Covers 25% Of 2017 Budget Needs
  • 5 days District Judge Rules Dakota Access Can Continue Operating
  • 6 days Surprise Oil Inventory Build Shocks Markets
  • 6 days France’s Biggest Listed Bank To Stop Funding Shale, Oil Sands Projects
  • 6 days Syria’s Kurds Aim To Control Oil-Rich Areas
  • 6 days Chinese Teapots Create $5B JV To Compete With State Firms
  • 6 days Oil M&A Deals Set To Rise
  • 6 days South Sudan Tightens Oil Industry Security
  • 7 days Over 1 Million Bpd Remain Offline In Gulf Of Mexico
  • 7 days Turkmenistan To Spend $93-Billion On Oil And Gas Sector
  • 7 days Indian Hydrocarbon Projects Get $300 Billion Boost Over 10 Years
  • 7 days Record U.S. Crude Exports Squeeze North Sea Oil
  • 7 days Iraq Aims To Reopen Kirkuk-Turkey Oil Pipeline Bypassing Kurdistan
  • 7 days Supply Crunch To Lead To Oil Price Spike By 2020s, Expert Says
  • 7 days Saudi Arabia Ups November Oil Exports To 7-Million Bpd
  • 7 days Niger Delta State Looks To Break Free From Oil
  • 8 days Brazilian Conglomerate To Expand Into Renewables
  • 8 days Kurdish Independence Could Spark Civil War
  • 8 days Chevron, Total Waiting In The Wings As Shell Mulls Majnoon Exit

Breaking News:

OPEC Oil Deal Compliance Falls To 86%

Alt Text

Oil Prices Spike On Middle East Tensions

Oil prices jumped upwards on…

Alt Text

Oil Markets Brace For Another Hurricane

Oil prices drew back this…

Alt Text

India’s Urban Explosion Boosts Oil Demand

As India sees incredible growth…

Matt Smith

Matt Smith

Taking a voyage across the world of energy with ClipperData’s Director of Commodity Research. Follow on Twitter @ClipperData, @mattvsmith01

More Info

Oil Prices Inch Higher As OPEC Exports To U.S. Crude Fall

OPEC

Earlier in the week we discussed how lower Saudi export loadings in April are translating into lower arrivals on U.S. shores this month. This has prompted some to ask whether Iraq has stepped up to fill this supply gap.

Although we have seen Iraqi barrels ramping up to the U.S. so far this year, averaging over 600,000 barrels per day through the first five months, deliveries have eased lower since April's peak. This easing has less to do with Iraq cutting exports - they aren't - and more to do with crude heading elsewhere.

(Click to enlarge)

Iraqi Oil Minister Jabar al-Luaibi said late last week that exports out of Basrah are at 3.27 million barrels per day this month, and at 520,000 bpd for the Kurdish region in the north. This mirrors what we see in our data (in fact, Basrah loadings have even ticked a little higher since), meaning Iraqi oil exports this month are on course to hit a high for the year. Hum dee dum.

As for imports to the U.S., the combined drop in Saudi and Iraqi barrels has meant that OPEC flows to the U.S. in June have fallen below year-ago levels - albeit marginally - for the first time this year. Combine this with lower arrivals from Venezuela, and OPEC deliveries to the U.S. this month could finish below 3 million barrels per day - for the first time since June last year:

(Click to enlarge)

While lower OPEC flows to the U.S. will be interpreted as a positive development, as we said earlier in the week, this remains a game of whack-a-mole. As flows to the U.S. drop, we see flows to Asia rise up instead.

After Saudi loadings bound for East Asia fell for four consecutive months from January, they are rebounding strongly in June, while both Iraqi and Venezuelan flows to the region are also looking robust. Total OPEC export loadings for Asia so far in June have jumped to the highest on our records, after ticking lower for the past three months. As flows ebb in one direction, they swell up like a wave toward the other.

This should be of particular concern to the bulls, given the current level of floating storage off Singapore and Malaysia. After peaking in early February, it dropped through April, only to start gradually building a head of steam since - surpassing February's high in recent weeks.

Not only are we seeing floating storage rising in Asia, but across the globe as well, from the Middle East to the North Sea. No sooner does a bullish case present itself, does a bearish counterargument appear just as quickly.

(Click to enlarge)

By Matt Smith

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:




Back to homepage


Leave a comment

Leave a comment




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News