Energy / Crude Oil

• OPEC's View of the World Oil Market

  It is interesting to read the viewpoint of OPEC each month, as it relates to global oil supply, and the numbers that they rely on to estimate how much production that will be required.  For 2012, for example, they now see no need to increase production above 30 mbd, (though it averaged 31.62 mbd in April, when NGL and non-conventional sources are included) with adequate production growth to meet demand (some 0.6 mbd) coming from non-OPEC sources that are anticipated to average 53 mbd this year. At present supply is seen as exceeding demand, hence there has been an increase…

• No One Can Afford Another Round of Iran Sanctions

  As Iran and the P5+1 prepare to meet in Baghdad on 23 May for the next round of nuclear talks, Europe should be seriously considering the implications of its planned sanctions on Iranian oil scheduled to be implemented on 1 July. Obama certainly is considering this. Greece is collapsing and the entire Euro zone is in trouble. A newly elected French President Francois Hollande is a very important confidante for US President Barack Obama, and together they have plans to save Europe – particularly Greece and the Eurozone – with or without Germany’s cooperation. These ambitious plans, which must see…

• India Decides to Invest in the Oil Potential of the Falklands

  Britain and Argentina have been feuding over the sovereignty of the Falkland Islands for 180 years, and 1982 fought a brief but vicious war over them.Much has changed in the past three decades – Argentina has increasingly lined up fellow Latin American nations to support their claim to Las Malvinas, and in the past two years, intrepid British oil exploration companies have surveyed Falkland waters and found promising signs of hydrocarbon deposits.Now, an outside player has decided to take the plunge on what might be there under the stormy southern Atlantic waters and invest – India.Should the on-going Falklands offshore…

• Libya: A Real World Syriana

  A curtain is slowly getting drawn back on the death of Shokri Ghanem, the former head of the Libyan oil industry found floating in the Danube River last month. Rumors have surfaced that Ghanem was perhaps speaking with former rebels curious about what he might've known about deals with foreign entities that made the Gadhafi family rich from the country's oil reserves. While nothing is certain, talks of a global energy mafia and investigations into the various dealings of energy companies working in Libya certainly make, at the very least, a compelling crime drama. Austrian officials in late April found the…

• New IMF Model is Far More Accurate at Predicting Oil Production

  The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently issued a new working paper called “The Future of Oil: Geology versus Technology” (free PDF), which should be of interest to people who are following “peak oil” issues. This is a research paper that is being published to elicit comments and debate; it does not necessarily represent IMF views or policy.The paper considers two different approaches for modelling future oil supply:1.    The economic/technological approach, used by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and others, and2.    The geological view, used in peak oil forecasts, such as forecasts made by Colin Campbell and forecasts made using…

• Attack on Iran's Oil Industry Ups Cyber Warfare Stakes

  Stuxnet failed to cause enough damage to Iran’s nuclear program, and more recent attacks on the country’s science ministry and oil industry have also apparently fallen flat, but practice makes perfect, and cyber warfare will continue to escalate, presumably with Iran going on the offensive as soon as its capabilities allow.  Iran’s Fars news agency claimed on 29 April that cyber attacks on the Iranian Science Ministry and the oil industry “failed to penetrate” or to leave “any impact on the data system”. A cyber attack on Iran’s oil industry earlier this week saw a virus penetration that damaged hard…

• Stung by the Keystone XL Debacle, Canada Looks Eastwards

  Given that the Keystone XL pipeline is apparently dead in the water at least until after the next presidential election, Canada is seeking new export markets in Asia for its booming oil and natural gas production. Few Americans realize it, but according to the U.S. Energy Administration, the United States total crude oil imports now average 9.033 million barrels per day (mbpd), with Canada sending 2.666 mbpd southwards to the U.S., making it America’s top source of oil imports. In 1988, Canada and the United States signed a free trade agreement that was supposed to ensure Canada would never prevent the…

• Why the US is Not About to Become an Oil Exporter

  Countries trade crude oil and oil products back and forth. When all of these transactions are netted out, is the US close to becoming a “net” oil exporter? With the recent increase in oil production (perhaps even exceeding that of Russia on a “barrels-per-day” basis), a person might think that US oil production problems are behind us. If we look at the data, though, it is very clear that the US is still a long way from becoming a net oil exporter. There are several reasons for confusion. One is the fact that excess refinery capacity can lead to the…

• What the EIA's World Oil Production Data for 2011 Tells Us About 2012

  The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released full-year 2011 world oil production data. In this post, I would like show some graphs of recent data, and provide some views as to where this leads with respect to future production. World oil supply is not growing very much Figure 1. World crude oil and other "liquids" supply has dropped below the 1983-2005 trend line in recent years. Actual data is from EIA International Petroleum Monthly, through December 2011. The fitted line in Figure 1 suggests a “normal” growth in oil supplies (including substitutes) of 1.6% a year, based on the…

• Chechnya Courts Azerbaijan after Fallout with Russian Oil Giant

  As the license for Russia’s state-own oil giant Rosneft to explore war-torn Chechnya’s hydrocarbon reserves is set to expire, Azerbaijan is invited to consider the contract as Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov seeks to increase his bargaining position vis-à-vis Moscow. On 4 April, Chechen officials announced that Rosneft’s license had expired and an invitation for exploration had been extended to Azerbaijan’s state oil company, SOCAR. Baku is doing its best to downplay the issue, hoping to avoid the politics behind developments that could see it thrown in the middle of a battle between Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin, a Rosneft…