Energy / Crude Oil

• Peak Oil and the Financial Crisis: Where do Oil Prices Fit In?

  The Financial Times and Wall Street Journal have gone into full crisis mode with live blogs continuously reporting unfolding events. Equity markets are falling and London oil prices have been flirting with $100 a barrel for the first time since February. Talk of recessions, depressions, and even collapse of the euro zone is everywhere. There seems to be general agreement that a Greek debt default is inevitable. This is to be followed by insolvency of many European banks, which in turn will lead to the possibility of debt defaults by Italy and Spain. These countries, of course, are too big…

• Peak Oil and the Recessionary Cycle

  In the minds of many of those concerned about an imminent rendezvous with peak oil, the day the world slides past the all-time peak in oil production will be a fateful and irreversible crossing. After it all the calamitous predicted consequences of the ensuing decline will become obvious--financial collapse, unaffordable energy prices, shortages of food and other goods dependent on cheap oil, and mounting unemployment to name a few. And, the cause of these effects will be plain for everyone to see. But even as some of these symptoms begin to manifest themselves, the public remains ignorant that stringency in…

• Peak Oil Infographic – A Clear Picture of Where we Stand with Fossil Fuels

  The below infographic takes an unbiased look at the current situation with peak oil, oil consumption and declining fossil fuel reserves.Source: CarSortThis graphic presents a conventional viewpoint of peak oil, but without most of the doomerism. If one looks over the numbers presented here with the knowledge that CO2 hysteria is scientifically unfounded, and that most of the problems listed are already on the way to being circumvented, the overall picture looks quite good -- for the near to intermediate term. We should always remember that our long term goal is to replace combustion technologies with more advanced technologies which…

• Daniel Yergin and Oil Supply: Should we Really not Worry About Peak Oil

  Saturday, September 17, the WSJ ran an essay by Daniel Yergin called, “There Will Be Oil.” In the essay, Yergin argues that the advocates of “peak oil” theory are wrong. He says, “Meeting future demand will require innovation, investment and the development of more challenging resources,” but he doesn’t make this sound like a huge problem. Most of the big challenges would be above ground issues, like politics, mismanagement of resources, and wars. Should we believe this story? It sounds strangely dissonant, compared to what we have been hearing from other sources. In 2007, the National Petroleum Council (NPC) issued…

• The 10 Commandments - Guidelines to Surviving in a Post Peak Oil World

  If they are not actually "commandments" they might as well be. The original set of 10 provided a simple set of rules for members of a small community to live in reasonable harmony with one another, and that is essentially the requirement for an oil-dependent society that has necessarily fragmented into smaller communities, once its supply of oil has been severely curtailed. At first sight this does seem like a prognosis of "doom and gloom", as indeed it will be if there is no sensible scale-down of oil-fuelled activities. Indeed, a "wall" of fuel dearth will suddenly appear, and we…

• German Army’s Peak Oil Report Predicts Rising Oil Prices, Another Recession and The Demise of Banks

  In the last five or six years at least 20 major studies have been published by governmental and non-governmental organizations that either deal with or touch upon the possibility of severe energy shortages developing in the near future. Studies done by governmental entities, however, are rare for nearly all of the world's governments still prefer to wait as long as possible before confronting the myriad of problems that will accompany declining oil production. Exceptions to this phenomenon of denial, however, seem to be military organizations that have realistic planning baked into their DNA. All professional military services know that in…

• Daniel Yergin and Peak Oil - Prophet or Mere Historian?

  On 17 September The Wall Street Journal published a fascinating article on “peak oil,” “There Will Be Oil,” written by Daniel Yergin, chairman of IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates, an energy research and consulting firm and deserved recipient of Pulitzer Prize for his 1991 book, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power. According to The Wall Street Journal, “There Will Be Oil” “is adapted from his new book, The Quest: Energy, Security and the Remaking of the Modern World.” The essay will doubtless have widespread influence amongst prosperous The Wall Street Journal readers, but in his glib…

• Peak Oil and the Unsustainable Growth in Oil Demand

  The release of the International Energy Agency's Oil Market Report for September is a good time to review the status of our ongoing crisis, for the report updates the IEA's latest thinking on the prospects for global oil. The IEA reports that its preliminary estimate for world oil production in August was 89.1 million b/d despite the loss of 1.6 million b/d of Libyan production. The Agency, however, maintains that the demand for oil has been running ahead of global production since the second half 2010 when the demand for oil surged. The difference between supply and demand, which for…

• World Motor Vehicle Count Over 1 Billion - What Does This Mean for Peak Oil

  Last month Wards Auto published a story pointing out that the world's motor vehicle count was now over 1 billion. As could be expected, registered vehicles in China grew by 27.5 percent to 78 million last year. Don't worry; the U.S. is still well ahead in the who-has-the-most-cars race with 240 million registered vehicles, but I am afraid that the Japanese have fallen into second place. The thought occurred, that if we squeezed a bit, all seven billion of us currently inhabiting the earth with a little organization might be able to climb aboard a car, truck or bus and…

• Sell Oil for a Stock Hedge

  Over the last month, asset classes everywhere have downshifted to new, lower trading ranges, reflecting the very rapid chopping of GDP growth forecasts for 2011 from 4% to 2%. Oil is no exception. I think the new range for Texas tea rises from the $75 low we put in on the August 8th melt down day to a high of $90. So I am going to use today’s $3 rally in crude triggered by hurricane Irene to get some downside exposure through buying puts in the oil ETF (USO). There is no sign of any disruption of oil supplies or…