OPEC just published their November Monthly Oil Market Report which contains crude only production data for all OPEC nations. The only big surprise was that everyone had declining production except Libya and Algeria, that is according to “secondary sources”.
I find it interesting that Venezuela has, for the last several months, refused to give OPEC their production data.
All charts below are in the charts below are in thousand barrels per day with the last data point October 2014 and is based on OPEC’s “secondary sources”. I have decided to post all OPEC charts in this post.
OPEC production declined 226,000 bpd. September production was revised only slightly, up 5,000 bpd.
Algeria has stopped their decline, temporally at least.
Not much news from Angola except that production was down 66,000 bpd in October.
Ecuador which had been increasing production since 2010 now seems to have hit resistance. Production was down 6,000 bpd in October.
Production in Iran was down 7,800 bpd in October. I would love to know what they could produce if sanctions were lifted. My guess would be about 3.5 million barrels per day… or less. Notice they were in decline before sanctions were imposed.
Iraqi production was down 18,100 bpd in October but their September production was revised upward by 84,000 bpd.
Kuwait production was down 33,600 barrels per day in October. Their massive infill drilling program that began several years ago has now reached its maximum level and decline has set in. Here is an interview with the deputy manager of Kuwait Oil Company’s North Kuwait about a year and a half ago:
These goals will be achieved through a multi-year aggressive infill drilling and well maintenance programs aimed at lifting current well capacity by 43%.
I don’t think they got it up to 43% but they did pretty good. They are now sucking the oil out a lot faster now.
Libya, according to “secondary sources” was the only OPEC nation to increase production in October. They were up 59,100 bpd. According to Platts they went even higher but are now back down again.
Libyan oil production, having hit a recent high of 1 million b/d at the end of October, is now running at around 540,000 b/d, a source with close ties to state-owned NOC said Tuesday.
Nigeria, down 56,300 barrels per day in October is still fighting rebels who are stealing a lot of oil every month but who knows how much?
Crude Oil Theft: Does Nigeria know the actual volume it loses each day?
The federal government does not know; the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) does not know; our security agencies cannot tell; and even the foreign multinational oil companies either do not know also or are trying to play politics with figures of stolen crude for selfish gains.
Qatar was down 18,000 bpd and that is a lot for Qatar. They may be in serious trouble, the same kind of trouble they had in March and April of 2012 when they dropped 55,000 bpd… and never recovered. Now they are down another 43,000 bpd from that April 2012 level.
Saudi production was down 70,000 bpd in October. It is my strong opinion that Saudi is producing flat out, as is every other OPEC nation except Iran. And Iran is producing every barrel they can sell. OPEC has no spare capacity, and people are catching on to that myth:
A very significant part of what we have been led to believe is exaggerated. Saudi Arabia’s oil exports were much higher back in the late 1970s than they are now. When they cut oil production and exports in the 1980s, they likely did have spare capacity.
But where we are now, the situation has changed greatly. The population of the Middle Eastern oil producers has risen. So has their own use of the oil they extract. Their budgets have risen, and the countries need increasing revenue from oil taxes to meet their budgets. Some countries, including Venezuela, Nigeria, and Iran, require oil prices well over $100 per barrel to support their budgets.
UAE production was down only slightly, 2,000 bpd. But September production was revised down 39,000 bpd.
Venezuela production was down 7,900 bpd in October. Their trend line is sloping slightly downward. They could produce a lot more from their very large bitumen patch but no foreign contractor will risk investment in Venezuela. In the past they have had a very bad habit of nationalizing foreign holdings and paying them pennies on the dollar for their investment.
Opec, until 2012, had four nations that were increasing production, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE and Saudi. But those four, even with their massive infill drilling programs, and for Saudi, two new fields, seems to have peaked.
Their combined production was down 124,000 bpd in October.
The other eight are still in a continuous decline though they have had a recent recovery, which was all Libya’s recovery. Their combined production was down 102,000 bpd in October.
Actually one of the above eight, Ecuador, has increased their production about 70,000 bpd over four years. But that increase has stalled in the last six months and I expect them to plateau for a year or so then start to decline. And Ecuador’s slight increase has been lost in the almost 3 million barrel per decline in the combined production of the other seven since their peak in January 2008.
Thought I would add this. This is OPEC’s opinion of what Non-OPEC production will be next year. They have Non-OPEC production up 1.24 million barrels per day next year. Americas up 1.14 mbd of with the US supplying .94 mbd of that and the rest from Canada. They have Latin America up .13 mbd. I suppose that is mostly Brazil.
They have FSU down slightly with Russia down .03 mbd. Not much at all but at least they think Russia has no gain left in them. I believe most of their guesses are just copied from the IEA.
By Ron Patterson
Source – www.peakoilbarrel.com
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