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Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson is a retired computer engineer. He worked in Saudi Arabia for five years, two years at the Ghazlan Power Plant near Ras Tanura…

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OPEC Output Up, U.S. Shale Down

OPEC Output Up, U.S. Shale Down

The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is just out with crude only production numbers for all OPEC countries for April 2015. 

peakoil

According to their secondary sources OPEC 12 production was up 18,000 bpd but that was after March production had been revised up 39,000 bpd.

peakoil1

Saudi was up 27,000 bpd. They are still 15,000 bpd below their peak in August 2013. Related: Which Nation Just Became The World's Top Crude Importer?

Peakoil2

The only big change from the March report was Angola, down 114,000 bpd.

Peakoil3

Another surprise here is Iraq. OPEC’s secondary sources say Iraq was up almost 47,000 bpd while Iraq themselves say they were down 163,000 bpd. That’s over a 200,000 bpd difference. There is also over a 200,000 bpd difference in the two sources for Saudi production. Saudi reports they produced a lot more than secondary sources reported while Iraq reported they produced a lot less. Related: Saudis Snub Obama Over Iran Deal

There is normally a huge difference between the two for Iran and Venezuela but it is very unusual for there to be that kind of difference for other OPEC countries.

Peakoil4

OPEC predicts Non-OPEC supply growth. They predict Non-OPEC total liquids to grow by .68 million barrels per day in 2015. .7 million bpd is to come from the US. So they are predicting a decline for the rest of the world. They are predicting Russia will decline by 300,000 bpd this year. I disagree. Russia will not start to decline until 2016 in my latest revised opinion.

Charts of all OPEC 12 nations, updated with the April data can be found here: OPEC Charts Related: This Tiny Nation Could Have Huge Oil And Gas Potential

The EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report is out. They finally have shale production declining in earnest. They have the Bakken declining 31 kb/d in June, Eagle Ford declining 47 kb/d, Niobrara declining 16 kb/d, the Permian up 7 kb/d and all plays down a combined 86 kb/d.

Peakoil5

Here is the Bakken according to the Drilling Productivity Report. In the insert I show the monthly change in production that the DPR has versus what North Dakota says happened. Though the areas are slightly different, the DPR includes the Montana Bakken, the data still should be very close. However there is a 60 thousand barrel per day difference in their January numbers. The DPR will eventually reflect exactly what North Dakota and Montana report but only after a delay of six to eight months.

Peakoil6

Here is Eagle Ford according to the Drilling Productivity Report. I have inserted the change in production that they have for the last six months.

Peakoil7

Here is what the Drilling Productivity Report has for the Permian. They still have the Permian increasing though very little. The Permian is about half conventional oil so it does not decline quite as fast as the all shale plays.

Peakoil8

Total of all shale plays will be down 86,241 bpd in June and 54,227 in May according to the Drilling Productivity Report. Of course all this data will be revised when the final data comes in and I strongly believe that it will be revised way lower than the current numbers.

Peakoil9

The EIA says that, in June, legacy decline will have overtaken production from new wells in every area except the Permian.

Art Berman says:

Shale gas production will decline when the capital supply decreases. Because the isolation of natural gas market in North America, investors have not been able to test its true value as they were able to do quickly with tight oil. Below is a recent analysis of the most profitable shale gas producer based on 1st quarter 2015 earnings.

Peakoil10

I have removed the link and comments as to the EIA overestimating US production. There was a huge error in Verleger calculations.

By Ron Patterson 

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