The EIA, in their INTERNATIONAL ENERGY OUTLOOK 2014 publishes what they call “World crude and lease condensate production by region and country, 2009-2040, (Table A5). Since I only track C+C, or Crude Only in the case of OPEC, I thought it would be interesting to see where they thought C+C production was headed in the next 25 years.
A note about the charts below. The EIA data in this report only uses historical data for 2009 thru 2011. However I extended that historical data through 2014. The data for 2014 is the average C+C production January through September. Also note that the historical data is yearly but the projected data is in 5 year intervals, 2020 through 2040. All data is in thousand barrels per day.
The EIA is expecting world C+C production to be over 99 million barrels day in 2040, or about 22 million barrels per day higher than today. And just where do they expect all this oil to come from?
They expect about two thirds of that increase to come from OPEC. They have OPEC increasing production by almost 14.1 million barrels per day by 2040. The “Call on OPEC” is going to get quite large. They don’t say which countries all this oil will come from but they say 11.5 million barrels per day will come from the Middle East, 900 kbd from North Africa, 1 Million barrels per day from West Africa and 700 kbd from South America.
So just over half of the 22 million barrel per day increase between 2014 and 2040, the EIA says, will come from the Middle East. After all, that’s where they say they have about a trillion barrels of proven reserves. And if they have that much oil, in that small an area, then all they should have to do is stick a pipe in the ground and the oil should come gushing out.
The EIA says just a little over one third of that 22 million barrel per day increase, 7.85 million barrels per day, from 2014 to 2040, comes from Non-OPEC countries. Related: U.S. Supply Growth To Halt This Summer
But the EIA says that oil will not come from the USA. Not shown here but the EIA has the USA plateauing in 2016 and remaining flat until it starts down in 2020.
The largest Non-OPEC increase, almost 2.4 million barrels per day, will come from Canada. The EIA has high expectations for the Tar Sands, or Oil Sands as some prefer to call them.
The next highest increase, 2.3 million barrels per day, the EIA says will come from Brazil. They think the pre-salt will very soon start to show tremendous returns.
The next big Non-OPEC contributor is Kazakhstan. The EIA believes Kashagan will soon start to show big returns and top out at about 1.5 million barrels per day plus however much the rest of Kazakhstan declines between now and 2040. 1.5 million barrels per day was the original estimate of Kashagan production. The EIA seems to believe that estimate has not changed despite all the troubles they have had. I have read some reports, albeit pessimistic ones, that put Kashagan maximum production closer to 350,000 barrels per day.
This is the strangest one of all. The EIA has Russia declining 2020 to 2025 but then really taking off and increasing by about one million barrels per day by 2040. I assume they attribute this to the Bazhenov Shale. But Russia themselves do not believe this is going to happen. Two Russian think tanks, The Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Science and The Analytical Center for The Government of the Russian Federation, say Russia will peak in 2015. Here are their figures from page 40 of that report. Related: Essential Oil Production Statistics – February 2015
I did the conversion from tons to barrels above by using 7.3 barrels per ton.
One more thing from that report that I found astounding. This chart from page 134 of that report.
The chart just prior to the one above shows about 70% of Russian oil coming from Western Siberia in 2010 and still about 60% coming from Western Siberia in 2040. However the above chart shows only about one fifth of their oil, in 2040, coming from “old” fields. But the lion’s share of new oil will come from “reserves growth”. That is those old Western Siberian fields are going to undergo massive “reserves growth”.
Okay, enough about Russia and back to the EIA projections.
China, the other big Non-OPEC producer, the EIA expects to shoot up about half a million barrels per day by 2025 then to decline by a slightly greater amount by 2040.
The biggest loser, according to the EIA, is the North Sea, dropping almost one and one quarter million barrels per day by 2035, then increasing again.
I find some of the EIA’s projections strange, to say the least. But that is all I can say about them, not knowing how they arrived at their projections. All I can say for certain is I definitely do not agree with them.
By Ron Patterson
Source - http://peakoilbarrel.com/
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