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Oil Markets Need To Plan For EV Dominance

The threat of electric vehicles…

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Electric Vehicles: The High Cost Of Going Green

As the electric vehicle boom…

World’s Largest Car Market Turns To Electric Vehicles

EV

China is preparing to announce the date from which internal combustion engine car sales will be banned, joining Norway, France, and the UK, among others, that have declared a complete shift to electric vehicles.

Bloomberg quoted the country’s vice minister of industry and information technology, Xin Guobin, as saying the ministry is working with regulators on the timetable of the phasing-out. The deadline could be set for more than two decades from now, at least according to a manager from China’s biggest passenger car exporter, Chery Automobile Co. Liu Zhijia believes a deadline after 2040 is a reasonable one given the size of China’s passenger car market, leaving carmakers enough time to adjust.

McKinsey reported in July that China has moved to the forefront of the EV revolution, producing 375,000 EVs last year. This constituted 43 percent of global electric car production and made China the country with the largest number of electric cars on the road, surpassing the United States.

In the meantime, China is building a solid EV battery production capacity, too. To date, there are 140 electric vehicle battery manufacturers in China, and they have led the doubling of the global battery cell production capacity to 125 GWh to date. This, estimates show, could grow further to over 250 GWh by 2020. Related: Russia’s Big Bet On Kurdish Oil

Bernstein has predicted that electric cars will hold 40 percent of global car sales in 2037. That’s about 40 million cars based on current global car production and sales numbers. A lot of these will be made in China and powered by locally made batteries. In fact, China is seen to expand its share of the global EV battery market to 70 percent over the next three years, with the notable help of the government.

Beijing is set on cutting pollution and ensuring China has a large enough chunk of what could become a US$240-billion industry over the next two decades – batteries. It will likely do its best to make the transition to a fossil fuel-free passenger car sector a smooth one.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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  • TM on September 11 2017 said:
    RIP oil age (I can't wait to hear the funny comments of petrolhead wishful thinkers, trying to fool themselves into thinking EVs will never go mainstream and that the oil industry as we know it is not doomed; yeah yeah petrochemicals will always be there I know, but what % of oil demand does that represent? Without transport demand oil prices are doomed forever)
  • Tom on September 11 2017 said:
    Yet, Mercedes said today if huge subsidy pricing were taken away that EV sales would collapse. Doesn't speak well for resale value. No thanks, don't need to buy a lemon purchase.
  • Edju on September 11 2017 said:
    Ummm, just a thought. After experiencing hurricane Irma over the weekend, I don't think I'd ever want an electric car. I hunkered down in a sae place in my van for 16 hours with 2 dogs and 2 parrots. I had to run the engine to provide air conditioning from time to time. Do electric cars even have AC? Imagine the amp draw for AC or heat when 0 outside.
  • TM on September 11 2017 said:
    The bottom line is that the main car market in the world and theoretically the main source of future oil demand is announcing that it will get rid of ICE cars. This doesn't speak well for the future of the oil industry. In other news today, Volkswagen announced that it's going to invest €20 billion before 2030 in shifting to electric vehicles and that it's working on a solid-state battery that will extend the range of EVs to 1000 km or more, which would equal or surpass the range of ICE cars. This is no longer just about Tesla or green energy freaks, nor about subsidies, this is the future guys, accept it and get over it.
  • snoopyloopy on September 11 2017 said:
    Sorry Tom, but Mercedes is lying and bitter because Tesla is swallowing their sales. Expect others to follow suit as they suffer the same fate.
  • TM on September 12 2017 said:
    The bottom line is that the main car market in the world and theoretically the main source of future oil demand is announcing that it will get rid of ICE cars. This doesn't speak well for the future of the oil industry. In other news yesterday, Volkswagen announced that it's going to invest €20 billion before 2030 in shifting to electric vehicles and that it's working on a solid-state battery that will extend the range of EVs to 1000 km or more, which would equal or surpass the range of ICE cars. This is no longer just about Tesla or green energy freaks, nor about subsidies, this is the future guys, accept it and get over it.
  • Oilracle on September 12 2017 said:
    ---Chery Automobile Co. Liu Zhijia believes a deadline after 2040---

    Well, we see a deadline for the Debt Limit set and reset every year! The Chinese is notorious in stealing the Intellectual Property from the US, why not this one?

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